Guatemala Gets Lucky

In a remarkable turn of events, an improvised coalition of Guatemalan pro-democracy factions has been able to do what for many decades seemed impossible in that war-torn country: elect as president a civilian with a strong human rights record.

On his first day in office, President Ramiro de Leon Carpio shook up the military with a series of promotions and demotions that sent mixed signals. He demoted the nation’s top general but elevated other hard-line generals.

Amid fast-moving political events in Guatemala--where a 40-year civil conflict has claimed thousands of lives--De Leon faces the major risk of leaving intact a power structure long commanded by the military.

The latest crisis began last month when then-President Jorge Serrano accused the Congress and judiciary of corruption, abolished them and assumed extraordinary powers in an unsuccessful attempt to impose a one-man rule. Serrano and, later, Vice President Gustavo Espina Salguero ended up being ousted by the military.

When Congress met afterward to elect an interim president to finish Serrano’s term, the people’s will was respected: De Leon, head of the official human rights ministry and a popular figure who a few days earlier had been hiding in fear for his life, was chosen.

Most governments will no doubt wish to rush to recognize De Leon as the legitimate head of state under Guatemala’s constitution, and to make it clear that further military intervention will not be tolerated.

As for De Leon, his new constitutional government must initiate an open dialogue with all segments of Guatemalan society. Together, the government and people, in addition to bringing to trial those who plotted with Serrano, should formulate an enforceable policy of respect for human rights and devise a workable reform program to advance democracy. But the big fight will be to keep the army in its barracks. To do this, De Leon needs all the support he can get.