It’s Sunset for the Old Order in the Land of the Rising Sun : Japan: The governing party may seek self-preservation in an agenda that’s less pro-West, more challenging to U.S. policy.

Fasten your seat belts. The collapse of Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa’s government marks the beginning of the post-Cold War era in Japan and the end of the easy predictability that has characterized Japanese politics since World War II. From the ashes will rise a turbulent political reorganization fueled by a growing conservatism among Japanese leaders and the electorate. At best, it’s going to be a bumpy ride. At worst, we may be forced to sit back and watch Japan’s longstanding pro-American political, security and business agenda crash and burn.

Among the reported casualties is the Liberal Democratic Party, the linchpin of Japanese politics and leading proponent of Japan’s pro-Western agenda since 1955. The LDP saw to it that Japan stayed friendly with the United States after World War II. But then, what choice did Japan have? And the anti-communist LDP was the only political force that could manage this critical task.

Japan also had no choice but to duck high politics and focus on developing its trade and industry after the onset of the hair-trigger nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. The LDP’s pro-American, anti-communist, pro-business agenda ensured the support of the United States and the pragmatic Japanese electorate.

The end of the Cold War has changed everything. The infantile Japanese left has been orphaned and the prognosis for survival is fairly grim. The demise of the left will leave the LDP’s broad spectrum of conservatives to fight among themselves. At the same time, the United States will be less hesitant to press Tokyo on trade liberalization in the areas of rice, construction and high-tech goods and services. This broadside assault threatens to blow apart the coalition of business and rural constituencies that has kept the LDP in power. America’s new attitude, as well as its fecklessness and fiscal insolvency, has divided conservative Japanese policy-makers over whether to continue bending over backward to maintain an unequal and dependent relationship with the U.S.

Japan’s traditional pro-business agenda also appears on the critical list. Japanese business no longer needs much help when the United States and Western Europe lie awake nights in cold sweats over Japanese competition. Japanese workers want relief from tedious office and factory jobs, a better standard of living and more leisure time. Japanese business leaders, burdened by nose-to-nose global competition, are sick of toadying to bookish bureaucrats and paying off senior LDP politicians for the privilege of conducting business.

Many Japanese now want to see their country stand on its own two feet; they want their government to promote some economic liberalization, which, in the final analysis, would create a higher standard of living and friendlier relations with the rest of the world. This alternative conservative policy agenda, which has the potential to attract votes and money, is being tested today by the conservative splinter group headed by Tsutomu Hata, a well-known protector of agricultural interests, and Ichiro Ozawa, an advocate of constitutional revision and rearmament.

At the very least, lower house elections will encourage a new generation of leadership to debate Japan’s place in a post-Cold War world. Hata and Ozawa are betting that the status quo will be defended by the rump LDP, and those seeking change from the old left and right will follow new leadership. Should it form, a center-left party could be a viable alternative to a status-quo-oriented center-right LDP, and the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and constitutional revision will be a main focus of debate.

For the rest of the world, this means that, until the dust settles, no strong global leadership will come from Japan. Nevertheless, the West will press Japan for definitive stands on such momentous issues as democracy and human rights and for international security contributions. Moreover, the international environment is becoming increasingly unpredictable, especially in such areas as access to Western markets, the security of sea lanes through Southeast Asia and stability on the Korean peninsula. The impact on a fluid domestic political situation of such external pressures and crises will be unpredictable.

The warning lights are flashing and it’s time for the United States to make a critical choice: Buckle up now by considering Japan’s unpredictability a major factor in setting U.S. policy, or prepare for a crash landing in the Pacific down the road.