Clinton Now Under Huge Pressure to Act : Air strikes against Serb positions may be unavoidable

It is hard not to feel sympathy for President Bill Clinton. It looks as if the entire Bosnian situation--and, worse yet, the very stability of that explosive region--has come down on his head. He is not in an enviable position. From George Bush he inherited a very dangerous mess.

The latest twist of cruelty is that the three parties to the misery of Bosnia and Herzegovina--Serb, Croats and Muslims--broke off the peace talks in Geneva. The international mediators, led by Lord David Owen, had sketched out a tripartite partition plan that was unacceptable to President Alija Izetbegovic of the Muslim-dominated Bosnia government.

It will seem a great paradox that the Muslims should say “no” when they scarcely now have a literal or figurative leg to stand on. But in fact the partition formula needs to be acceptable to all sides if it is to be stable; and it needs to be realistic if it is to be enforceable. After all, in order for it to be properly policed, the plan would require perhaps 20,000 U.S. troops, as part of a U.N./NATO force. No one wants to ask Americans risk their lives enforcing a misconceived plan.

SERBS HAVE WON: It is absolutely true, as we have said before, that the Serbs have won the war and the Muslims must accept this brutal fact. But if the remaining populations are to live in relative peace, it is hard to see how that can happen unless all sides have a measure of land--and in the Muslim case in particular some realistic access to the sea--so that the new economies can survive. That was not in the Geneva plan for the Muslims, and that was why Izetbegovic walked away from the table. That angers many people, who thought that peace was at hand. Indeed, there had been some talk of withdrawing humanitarian U.N. aid to force the Muslims to take the deal, but that would only serve to punish those who have endured more than their share of suffering. Moreover, what the Bosnian president had asked for at Geneva was only somewhat marginally more than had been offered. In the interest of winding this hellish nightmare down, it should have been granted.

TO DETER AGGRESSION: Now the conscience has been stirred by a remarkable letter signed by about 100 ranking international figures--led by former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz --calling on Clinton to authorize air strikes against both Serb military targets not only in Bosnia but Serbia as well. It also urges that sanctions against the Muslim government be suspended and that its army be sent arms.

So now the pressure on Clinton is intense--Senate Republican Minority Leader Bob Dole has also called for U.S. action. Nobody welcomes the thought of America having to bear yet another military burden. But there is no one else who can deter the Serbian armies, ragtag asthey may be, from further aggression, either against the remaining Muslim enclaves in Bosnia or, down the road, in places like Kosovo or Vojvodina.

What is at stake here is regional geopolitical stability. On Thursday, President Clinton warned that the Serbs would be running a serious risk if they sought to take further advantage. That was the right thing to say. But if the Serbs ignore the warning, then Clinton will need more than words.