Big Changes Poised at the Crossroads : Growth, Rocketing Land Values Foreseen for New County Hub

Shane Glass, owner of Three Flags shopping center on Forbes Road, sees the San Joaquin Hills tollway being built nearby and envisions spanking new, seven-story offices.

“The tollway puts our chunk of dirt at the confluence of two major highways,” said Glass, referring to the junction of the 17.5-mile San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor and Interstate 5. “The property values are going to go up to a point where the current uses don’t really apply any more.”

City Manager Tim Casey agreed. Some of the original property owners built light-industrial buildings there for temporary uses, thinking that the ultimate land use wouldn’t occur until--well, about now.

And with a MetroLink train station also coming next year, the days of the sleepy warehouses and relatively low-profile businesses in the area may be numbered.

“This could possibly become the hub of South Orange County,” said John Conner, owner of Sepulveda Building Supplies, also on Forbes Road. “We need this area to be a place to go, not to come from.”

Across town, at the Market Place in Laguna Niguel, a new retail center is being built that will boast the county’s first Wal-Mart. Home builder Nathan Shapell has permits to construct 1,132 units near the corridor. In a corner of Mission Viejo, an office-retail complex is being built next to Interstate 5. And in Aliso Viejo, thousands of new residential units remain to be constructed.

Near the corridor’s northern section between UC Irvine and the coast, the Irvine Co. has plans for more homes, and the campus is scheduled to expand as well, with new research facilities and a commercial strip near MacArthur Boulevard.

Such development--and even redevelopment--is at the heart of a decades-old debate: Will construction on the San Joaquin Hills tollway, which began earlier this month, bring a wave of new commercial and residential projects to South Orange County?

Environmentalists opposed to the tollway argue that the $1.1-billion highway will bring masses of people who will trample some of the county’s last remaining open space and pollute the air with exhaust fumes from thousands of new car trips each day.

On the other side, the tollway agency’s federal environmental impact statement argues that by providing a measure of traffic relief, the tollway may change only the rate of growth--not the amount or location.

Regardless, business owners as well as officials in several cities along the corridor said tollway construction may spur development once stalled by the recession.

Even in Mission Viejo, across Interstate 5 from the area traversed by the tollway, city officials believe commercial activity will pick up.

“I’m sure the prospect of the San Joaquin Hills Corridor will have a positive effect on merchants’ plans for expansion,” Mission Viejo Community Development Director Clint Sherrod said. “That’s because the tollway will enhance traffic circulation in this area, and there’s just tremendous pressure for growth and a road system to accommodate it.”

Sherrod also predicts a growth spurt along his city’s eastern border, where the first 3.2-mile segment of the Foothill tollway opens to traffic next month.

Further north, near Irvine and Newport Beach, the Irvine Co. has two development projects under way: Newport Coast and Newport Ridge.

Newport Coast has permits for 2,600 homes and apartments. So far, only 92 lots have been sold and 100 homes have been put on the market. Newport Ridge has permits for 2,550 homes and apartments, with 100 homes up for sale so far.

Neither project has direct access to the tollway, and county officials found that other roads in the area could handle traffic from the new neighborhoods.

In approving Newport Ridge, however, county officials inserted a condition that grading or construction of the tollway between Laguna Canyon Road and MacArthur Boulevard must begin before the Irvine Co. can undertake development of more than 2,000 units there.

Two weeks ago, a federal judge blocked tollway construction along a portion of that route, pending a new hearing in January.

But Irvine Co. senior vice president Larry Thomas said the county’s restriction related to the tollway is “probably moot” anyway. Construction of more than 2,000 units is unlikely, he said, even though the company is entitled to build 2,550.

There are five other planning areas in the company’s long-range development plans, with two zoned for residential construction without specific site plans yet.

But, according to Thomas, “the major consequence of the corridor will be to relieve and redistribute traffic within the region, rather than to speed or encourage future development along the corridor, certainly on the portion that runs through the Irvine Ranch.”

Much of the tollway’s path winds through greenbelt areas protected from development. What’s more, some areas along the route are already built out.

So development is expected to occur in pockets, especially in Aliso Viejo, a community planned for 20,000 units, of which less than half have been completed.

And in older neighborhoods, property owners like Sepulveda Building Supply’s John Conner have a vision of the future that few residents may now imagine.

“You always have to have a 10-year plan,” Conner said. “Maybe some of the property owners would go in together for a larger project. You have some old-timers in the area who may be opposed. There are some challenges to upgrading the area. . . . But you could have a convention-type hotel next to the MetroLink station.”

Making Way for the New Tollway The start of construction on the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor heralds much more than a new road. Developers are expected to build hundreds of new homes, stores, office towers, a Wal-Mart and golf courses near the $1.1-billion, 17.5-mile tollway. Much of the newdevelopment, stalled by the recession, may be spurred by the tollway, which is to be completed in spring, 1997. A look at Orange County cities that will be affected the most by the tollway:

How Traffic Will Change In most cases, the tollway will help alleviate congestion. The average daily traffic on some larger roads along corridor. John Wayne Airport Jamboree Rd. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 29,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 58,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 40,000 Corona Del Mar Fwy. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 70,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 90,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 145,000 University Dr. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 32,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 51,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 38,000 MacAarthur Blvd. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 56,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 40,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 33,000 Laguna Canyon Rd. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 30,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 22,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 26,000 El Toro Rd. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 30,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 28,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 24,000 Santa Ana Fwy. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 248,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 305,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 270,000 Mouton Pkwy. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 30,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 51,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 29,000 Crown Valley Pkwy. Existing traffic, 1988-89: 41,000 Traffic in 2010 without tollway: 20,000 Traffic in 2010 with tollway: 28,000 Some Planned Projects: Open space: 106 acres. Residential: 155 units. Residential: 48 units. Commercial / residential: 3,204 units, 82 acres. Golf course: 69 acres. Commercial / residential: 233 acres. Planned community: 3,035 units, 1,569 acres. Commercial / industrial: 153 acres.

How to Use the Tollway 1. Automatic payment: Vehicles with scanner cards drive through; scanner reads card and driver’s prepaid account is charged. 2. Cash payment: Pay toll collectors or coin machines. 3. Lane entry sensor: Weight, type of vehicle and length of trip determine toll, from 50 cents to $2. 4. Green light: When correct amount is paid. 5. Red light: If vehicle leaves while signal is red, an alarm rings, a red strobe flashes and cameras photograph license plate. Computer records infraction; violators are ticketed by mail.

Vital Stats Raised lane markers: 7,000 Bridges: 78 in 27 different locations. 88-foot-wide median: Left empty for later use as car-pool lanes or rail-system. Steel rods: 37,500 tons. Concrete: 250,000 cubic yards. Toll plazas: 24; 10 at ramps, 14 on main line (7 in each direction)

Vehicles Through the Years The tollway is expected to accommodate more than 30 million vehicles and generate more than $52 million in tolls its first year. Estimated annual vehicles, in millions: 2032: 75 Sources: Transportation Corridor Agency

Developer’s Fees Developers who want to build along the tollway will have to pay a one-time fee when they are issued a building permit. Zone A, at the heart of the corridor, is more expensive than the outer limit, Zone B. What developers will pay: Project: Single-family dwellings, per unit Zone A: $2,822 Zone B $2,185 Project: Multiple dwellings, per unit (apartments, condominiums) Zone A: 1,643 Zone B: 1,275 Project: Non-residential, per square foot (commercial, retail) Zone A: 3.78 Zone B: 2.80

Revenue Through the Years The tollway is expected to accommodate more than 30 million commuters and generate more than $52 million in tolls its first year. Estimated revenue: Average Toll In dollars 2032: $6.09 Gross Toll Revenue Estimated annual, in millions of dollars 2032: $457