Retail Gains Spark Hope for the Holidays : Sales: Nationwide figures were up 5% in September, but California remains weak. Cooler weather boosted buying.

The nation’s major retailers Thursday reported stronger than expected sales increases in September, prompting some analysts to project a more robust holiday shopping season after two years of disappointing results.

Cooler than normal weather, which boosted sales of winter apparel, helped push sales up about 5% nationwide for stores open at least 12 months. But analysts said gains were also made in areas such as bed linens, towels and draperies.

California, however, remains relatively weak. Industry analysts’ estimates for California ranged from flat to a 3% decline.

“California is still in the doldrums, and unless the situation changes, the state’s holiday season sales will be comparable to last year,” said Kurt Barnard of New York-based Barnard’s Retailing Marketing Report.

Nationwide, the improved report for September cheered retailers after a slow start for the back-to-school sales season in August. September is the tail end of the back-to-school shopping season and also a harbinger of Christmas shopping levels.

Adding to the upbeat expectations for the Christmas season was a report Thursday from the Commerce Department, which noted that unsold inventories had reached a nine-month high--a possible indication that retailers are stocking more goods in anticipation of a stronger holiday sales season.

“Cooler weather helped the situation, but sales were still better than expected,” said Ed Johnson, a retail analyst with New York-based Johnson Redbook. “Based on these results, we’re expecting a December sales increase in the 6.5%-to-8.5% range.”

September activity “shows that consumer confidence is picking up a bit,” said Monroe Greenstein, an analyst at Lazard Freres in New York. “There’s some pent-up demand, which is an encouraging sign for the Christmas shopping season.”

Sears, Roebuck & Co., which recently shut down its faltering catalogue operations and closed unprofitable stores, maintained its recent string of strong monthly sales. Same-store sales--revenue from stores open the last 12 months--rose 9% in September.

s May Department Stores, a steady sales performer this year, had a same-store sales increase of 6.8%.

Results in the discount sector were mixed. For example, Wal-Mart Stores, the nation’s largest retailer, had a 9% increase. Sales were less robust at Kmart, which had a 3.9% increase. Two retailers with a large presence in California--Minneapolis-based Dayton Hudson Corp. and Los Angeles-based Carter Hawley Hale Stores--reported marginal sales increases.

Carter Hawley Hale, operator of the Broadway chain, had a 0.8% increase in same-store sales. The company is making changes on its sales floors--providing more space for apparel and reducing its inventory of furniture and consumer electronics--and that activity affected customer traffic, said Carter Hawley President David Dworkin.

Same-store sales at Dayton Hudson--operator of the Target and Mervyn’s chains--rose 2.1% nationally. Dayton Hudson Chairman Kenneth Macke called the results disappointing and said the company will be lowering prices at Mervyn’s.

About 45% of Mervyn’s stores and about 20% of the Target stores are in California.