TRADE : Salinas’ Rhetoric Aimed at Both Sides of Border : Many believe the Mexican president’s tough talk on NAFTA is intended equally for voters at home.

Frustrated by delays in U.S. approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement and exasperated at talk that the U.S. Congress may seek to renegotiate the accord, Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari has spoken out forcefully.

“Neither reopening negotiation of the treaty or postponement of its implementation date are viable options at this time,” Salinas declared last week, warning that such actions could be the pact’s epitaph.

Beyond the tough talk, Salinas sent a broader, even more pointed message--that the entire course of amicable U.S.-Mexican relations that has characterized his almost five-year tenure, a stark contrast to the routine U.S.-bashing of former eras, was now in jeopardy.

“Only a few years ago, anti-United States rhetoric was an easy route to popularity” in Mexico, Salinas reminded lawmakers in a statement, released to the Washington Post.

What was behind the strong words from a leader known for his deference to U.S. policy-makers? And does the put-up-or-shut-up attitude truly signify a negative shift in Mexico’s attitude toward the United States?

Not likely, say independent analysts in both the pro- and anti-NAFTA camps, who generally view the Salinas declaration as an exercise (likely a futile one) in political posturing. Figuring prominently in the tactic, observers say, are next year’s Mexican presidential elections, in which the governing party faces new challenges to its 64-year reign.

Despite his comments, Salinas has few economic options. With the nation’s entire recovery program--not to mention Salinas’ prestige--hitched to the rickety post of free trade, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to walk away from a pact, even if its effective date was put off beyond the scheduled Jan. 1.

“It’s not real,” economist Rogelio Ramirez de la O said of Salinas’ warning. “NAFTA is indispensable to the short-run economic policy.”

Rather than as a signal of an alternate economic strategy, many interpret Salinas’ move as the act of a cornered leader eager to save face and avert a humiliating rejection that could be felt at the polls next year.

For weeks, the disillusioned president has been seeking to temper public expectations, de-emphasizing cross-border trade and appealing to national resolve. Although aimed at U.S. lawmakers, Salinas’ statement last week was directed equally to his domestic audience.

Mexicans eager for economic improvement here have watched closely as the much-hyped free trade pact, once considered a sure thing, has turned into a questionable proposition.

Politically, the trade pact has potentially far-reaching effects for the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party, which has reigned here for more than six decades.

Prohibited by law from seeking reelection, Salinas would prefer to unveil his party’s presidential nominee with NAFTA in place, the agreement aiding his handpicked designated successor. “What Salinas is trying to do is prolong the political life of his party,” said pollster Miguel Basanez.