NEWS ANALYSIS : Syrian, Israeli Posturing Leads to Talks Delay

A game of diplomatic bluff and double-bluff between Israel and Syria has led to the postponement of the next round of Middle East peace talks in Washington, Israeli officials acknowledged Sunday.

Annoyed by Israel’s secret deal with the Palestine Liberation Organization on Palestinian self-government on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Syria has been threatening not to come to Washington for the Arab-Israeli negotiations, saying that Israel is not serious in seeking an agreement.

Israel, which had said that negotiations with Syria would be deferred while it concentrated on the Palestinians, countered by calling Syria unyielding and declaring that it would not give in to threats.

The United States, afraid of a breakdown in negotiations it has nurtured for more than two years, has now postponed the next round of talks, which had been expected later this month, until Secretary of State Warren Christopher can reopen a channel of communication between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Syrian President Hafez Assad.

“We have received an announcement from the Americans that next week there will not be peace talks in Washington,” said Rafi Gamzou, a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry. “The negotiations will apparently be postponed until the end of November.”

In Washington, the State Department declined immediate comment on the Israeli statement, according to the Reuters news agency.

But Dennis Ross, the U.S. coordinator of the Arab-Israeli negotiations, arrives in the region this week for talks on the impasse, and Christopher is expected in early November, though no date has been announced.

“The talks with Syria are different from the talks with the Palestinians--we need active U.S. mediation,” a senior Israeli official said. “And so the Christopher trip is quite desirable, and Ross will be doing the spadework for it. . . .

“The United States . . . has to take these threats by Syria of a boycott (of the talks) seriously, more seriously than we do. Frankly, our whole attention is now on the Palestinians, and, again quite frankly, our people are still adjusting to the deal with the PLO and are not ready for one over the Golan Heights.”

The core of the problem, however, is that Rabin no longer needs Assad to “deliver” the PLO, for Israel is dealing directly with it on the most fundamental issue of the Arab-Israeli conflict; Rabin consequently can drive a much harder bargain with Assad on the return of the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967.

Assad, however, can perhaps undermine the agreement with the PLO by supporting Palestinian opponents to the deal and agitating among Palestinian refugees who have been the organization’s principal constituency. Syria can also increase tensions on the sensitive Israeli-Lebanese border by allowing Iranian-backed guerrillas to attack Israel’s self-proclaimed “security zone” there.

Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh, speaking in Cairo over the weekend, had warned Israel: “We will not go to Washington to participate in sterile and nonprofitable talks. We will only go when the Israelis show they are serious in achieving results.”

Shareh said progress in talks between Israel and Syria had been blocked because Israel is “busy” with the PLO.

A meeting between President Clinton and Assad would give momentum to the peace process, Shareh added, noting that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is going to the United States shortly and might propose this. Egypt has been urging Israel not to suspend negotiations with Syria to focus solely on the Palestinian problem.

Talks between Syria and Israel have, in fact, been stalled for a year on the fundamental issue between them--Damascus’ demand of total Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights and Jerusalem’s insistence on a Syrian commitment to a comprehensive peace between the two countries in return.

Christopher succeeded in starting a dialogue between Assad and Rabin on these questions during a trip to the region in early August. As a result, diplomats reported limited progress in the last round of Washington talks.

But Western diplomats see the current impasse resulting from the success Israel and the PLO have had in dealing directly with each other, depriving Syria of much of its diplomatic leverage.

Syria repeatedly has declared its interest in a comprehensive peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors and responded coldly to the Israeli-PLO accord, reached just as Assad’s strategy appeared to be paying off. Last week, Syria allowed 10 radical Palestinian and Muslim fundamentalist groups opposed to the agreement to hold an organizational meeting in Damascus.

Israel, which had so quickly put the negotiations with Syria aside after the accord with the PLO, took these countermoves as threats.

“Personally speaking, I don’t like threats,” said Yossi Sarid, the dovish environment minister. “But we should be optimistic about the . . . negotiations with Syria.”

Shimon Shetreet, the hawkish economics minister, said it is Syria that is “playing games.”

“In Washington (the Syrians) want to speak as if they are peace-loving and very committed to the peace process,” he said. “On the other hand, in Lebanon they actually prevent the deployment of the Lebanese army (in southern Lebanon) against the Hezbollah. Therefore this is double talk.”

Rabin, speaking to leaders of Israel’s own Arab minority in the northern town of Nazareth, reaffirmed Israel’s desire for a comprehensive settlement of the Middle East conflict.

“We came (to the negotiations) with the intention of reaching a comprehensive peace,” he said. “But comprehensive peace means a bilateral peace with each Arab partner.”

Rabin also confirmed that the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners is being negotiated under the Israel-PLO peace accord.