TRW Sees Drop in O.C. Home Sales for '93 : Real estate: The expected 2.1% decline compares positively to the 4.4% decrease projected for all of California.

TRW Sees Drop in O.C. Home Sales for ’93 : Real estate: The expected 2.1% decline compares positively to the 4.4% decrease projected for all of California.

By DEBORA VRANA

Dec. 16, 1993 12 AM PT

SPECIAL TO THE TIMES

Home sales in Orange County are expected to decline 2.1% for 1993, according to figures released Wednesday by TRW REDI Property Data.

Still, though new and existing home sales are projected to decline to 29,725 homes from 30,352 homes sold last year, Orange County compares positively to the rest of the state, where home sales are expected to drop 4.4% from last year, TRW REDI said.

A real estate information company, TRW REDI based its projections on home sales recorded with each county through Oct. 31.

In Southern California, sales have continued to fall for four consecutive years. But the rate of decline in 1993 has slowed significantly--from 11% in the 1991-1992 period to a projected 4.4% drop this year.

The anticipated regional decline ranges from a drop of 3.2% in San Diego County to a decrease of 8.9% in San Bernardino County, but Ventura County expects an increase of 2.3%, to 8,394 homes sold by Dec. 31.

“I think Southern California as a whole is doing better than the rest of the state, which is a big surprise. The most important thing is that the rate of sales decline has slowed down, which raises the prospect that Southern California’s housing market has bottomed out,” said Nima Nattagh, TRW REDI’s market analyst.

Because Southern California accounts for more than half of California’s home sales, any positive trend here is a good sign for the entire state, he said.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, where home sales actually increased 2% between 1991 and 1992, activity is projected to decline 8% by the end of 1993.

Average prices of Orange County homes are expected to drop 2.5% in 1993, to $242,833 from $249,017. That is in keeping with the rest of the state, where average prices are expected to drop 2.5%, TRW REDI said.

The decline in overall average prices, however, is partly because of a shift toward the purchase of less expensive homes--priced below $175,000--which now account for more than 56% of purchases, compared to 52% of the 1992 total.