State Candidates Face a Jaded Electorate in ’94

The beginning of this crucial election year finds scores of office-seekers getting ready to unleash the rhetoric of optimism and hope on a distinctly unreceptive audience--a California electorate battered by economic trauma, wrenching social change, waves of natural disaster and shocking violent crime.

It is a voting public that has become, perhaps more than ever, caustically skeptical about the government’s ability to do its job, pollsters who measure such things say.

Against that backdrop, more than 30 potential candidates for eight major statewide offices--headed by the governorship--are preparing speeches and position papers that they hope will persuade voters that each has the secret for reviving the California dream. For most, the formula will include promises to lock up violent criminals longer.

By the time Californians vote in the general election Nov. 8, the winners are likely to be those survivors who managed to spend the most millions to persuade jaded voters that their opponents are slightly worse scoundrels than they are.

The public mood is at or near record low levels in opinion polls gauging how people feel about the direction California is going, how the state stacks up as a place to live, and what sort of job the governor and Legislature are doing, said Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll.

“It’s a pretty dismal, depressing view,” DiCamillo said.

The economy and unemployment remain key issues, as they were in the 1992 presidential election, Los Angeles Times Poll Director John Brennan said. But in the past year, they have been joined by crime and illegal immigration, “and (those) will affect the character of this year’s races,” he said.

This means that the major issues are tailor-made for negative campaigns that could radiate more heat than light about issues.

The winners will not necessarily be the ones who have the best fix for California--if there is such a thing--but those who are the most adept at fixing blame, veteran pollsters and political analysts said.

“It’s not good for an incumbent, and Gov. Pete Wilson is the incumbent,” DiCamillo said.

“The jury is out on the blame game,” Brennan said. “That is, will the voters blame Bill Clinton or Pete Wilson for the state’s economic woes? Or, should the economy improve, who’ll get the credit?”

Almost any election in California is pivotal in some sense, if only because it is the nation’s one true superstate and is often viewed by national political experts as a caldron of political trends.

But the 1994 election has a number of unique aspects that will thrust it into the national limelight:

* Democrats hope to build on their major victories of 1992 by reclaiming the California governorship for the first time since Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. left office in January, 1983.

* Republican Wilson, who has suffered the worst poll ratings of any modern California chief executive, will battle to avoid being the first incumbent governor to be denied a second term since Culbert L. Olson in 1942. If the 60-year-old Wilson wins, it would be considered by many to be a comeback of mammoth proportions.

* If Democrat Kathleen Brown wins the governorship, she would become the third woman to occupy the state’s top three electoral positions, joining Democratic U.S. Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Feinstein also would have to win a full term in the Senate contest on the ballot in 1994.

* A Brown victory would re-establish what has become something of a Brown family political dynasty in California. The last two Democratic governors were her brother Jerry, 1975-83, and her father, Edmund G. (Pat) Brown Sr., 1959-67. The last Democratic governor who was not a Brown was Olson half a century ago.

Before Kathleen Brown, 48, the incumbent state treasurer, can claim that prize, she will have to defeat state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, 48, in the June 7 Democratic primary. Although Brown has far outdistanced Garamendi in fund raising, he is a veteran former legislator and campaigner who experts say is capable of giving Brown a tough fight for their party’s nomination.

Even with the voters in a foul mood, there is no lack of contenders for statewide offices. One reason is that only two incumbents are expected to seek reelection to the positions they hold: Wilson and GOP Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren.

Other top officials are retiring or seeking other posts, creating opportunities for a new wave of political aspirants. Brown and Garamendi have to give up their jobs to run for governor, and Democratic Controller Gray Davis is running for lieutenant governor.

A second reason is that members of the Legislature are approaching the term limits written into law by voters in Proposition 140 in 1990. With their legislative futures cut short, at least a dozen state senators and Assembly members have declared for statewide office or are strongly considering it.

In addition to the statewide offices, Californians will also choose 52 members of the House of Representatives, all 80 members of the state Assembly and 20 of 40 state senators. Also on the ballot will be an assortment of county officials and four members of the State Board of Equalization.

The state Senate elections could be particularly crucial because this is where the Republicans have, on paper, the best opportunity to control one of the two legislative houses for the first time in two decades. After a series of GOP victories in special elections, offset only by Democrat Steve Peace’s victory in San Diego County this week, the Democratic margin in the Senate has been trimmed to 22 to 16 plus two independents.

It takes 21 votes to control organization of the Senate and to pass most legislation.

Barring a series of upsets, Democrats are expected to maintain control of the Assembly under Speaker Willie Brown of San Francisco.

But if Brown or Garamendi wins the governorship, a GOP-controlled Senate could stymie her or his programs, or at least be in a position to negotiate significant concessions.

As always, the real prize for both parties is the governorship.

Wilson is not expected to have any significant opposition in the Republican primary in June when he asks renomination for a second term, even though he has been stigmatized by the worst poll ratings of any modern governor and is disliked by the most conservative members of his party for raising taxes and his moderate views on abortion, gay rights and some environmental issues.

Early polls indicate that either Brown or Garamendi would run ahead of Wilson if they were matched at this point. But the pollsters caution that such surveys mean little at this stage because most voters know little about Brown or Garamendi, each serving their first terms in state offices.

How the campaigns are conducted could prove decisive, DiCamillo said.

“All the challenger has to do is to keep the spotlight on the incumbent and to not become the issue themselves,” he said. “The issue is Pete Wilson and the state of California--a vote yes or no on the incumbent. . . . The best Wilson can hope for is that both (Brown and Garamendi) are seen negatively, that both are not viewed as living up to their high expectations.”

The Times Poll’s Brennan said that some of the “Democratic tail wind” that helped President Clinton carry California in 1992, and that elected Feinstein and Boxer, has subsided.

Going into the 1992 election, Democrats led Republicans 46% to 32% when California residents were asked which party could do a better job of handling the state’s problems, Brennan said. A year later, it was 33% for the GOP and 29% for the Democrats.

“This is good, but not great, news for the GOP,” Brennan said. “The change is in the decline of the Democratic number. The Republicans have gained little on the question.”

The big increase was in the number of respondents who had no faith in either party to do the job, up from 14% in 1992 to 30% one year later.

On crime and illegal immigration, Wilson sought to get a jump on his likely opponents by calling for major crackdowns on both issues last summer and fall. Since then, Brown and Garamendi have announced programs that differ from Wilson’s mostly in the details.

The upswing in crime as a key issue would seem to help Wilson because crime traditionally has been considered a Republican issue and Wilson campaigns have always had a strong anti-crime theme, DiCamillo said. The Wilson posture is this, he added: “I’m going to outflank whoever challenges me as tough on crime.”

In recent months, Wilson has boasted of a new spirit of cooperation with legislative leaders, passage of a state budget on time and approval of tax incentives to help revive the business economy. California is on the road back, he says.

In 1990, Wilson narrowly defeated Feinstein by campaigning as a compassionate conservative, who was tough on crime and fiscally conservative but sympathetic to environmentalists and social moderates on other issues.

That year, with the economy not yet in the doldrums, both Feinstein and Wilson talked of maintaining the California lifestyle, protecting the environment and of converting the state’s defense machine to peacetime production.

Before Wilson took office, the slump was in full swing, the budget plunged into the red and he was forced to join the Legislature in boosting taxes by $7 billion in his first year.

California also suffered a succession of costly natural disasters including earthquakes, floods and fires, along with the Los Angeles riots. Wilson became embroiled in bitter fights with the Legislature, leading to a prolonged budget deadlock in 1992 that caused Sacramento’s credibility with the voting public to plunge.

But Wilson could be helped by signs that the economy has hit bottom, if it is not yet beginning to revive, DiCamillo said.

“If those (economic indicators) start to change, then the incumbents have some greater hope,” he said. “That’s really what you need (as an incumbent). You need to improve perceptions about the future.”

Happy New Political Year

These are the major contenders who have so far announced they will seek statewide office in 1994 or have indicated they are considering running:

GOVERNOR

Republican: Incumbent Pete Wilson.

Democrats: State Treasurer Kathleen Brown of Los Angeles, state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi of Walnut Grove.

U.S. SENATOR

Republicans: Former Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton, Rep. Michael Huffington of Santa Barbara.

Democrat: Incumbent Dianne Feinstein of San Francisco.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

Republicans: Former Palm Springs Mayor Sonny Bono, Assemblyman Stan Statham of Oak Run, state Sen. Cathie Wright of Simi Valley.

Democrat: Controller Gray Davis of Los Angeles.

Note: Incumbent Democrat Leo T. McCarthy of San Francisco is retiring.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republican: Incumbent Dan Lungren of Roseville.

Democrats: San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith, Assemblyman Tom Umberg of Garden Grove.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Republicans: None announced so far.

Democrats: Chief Deputy Secretary of State Tony Miller of Sacramento, Assemblywoman Gwen Moore of Los Angeles, Assemblywoman Jackie Speier of Burlingame, former Los Angeles City Councilman Mike Woo.

Note: Incumbent Democrat March Fong Eu of Los Angeles is expected to resign upon confirmation by the U.S. Senate to be ambassador to Micronesia.

TREASURER

Republican: Matt Fong of Hacienda Heights, member of State Board of Equalization.

Democrats: Former state Democratic Chairman Phil Angelides of Sacramento, state Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti of Los Angeles.

Note: Incumbent Democrat Kathleen Brown is running for governor.

CONTROLLER

Republicans: Former Assemblyman Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks.

Democrats: Assemblyman Rusty Areias of San Jose, Alameda County Supervisor Don Perata, State Board of Equalization member Brad Sherman of Santa Monica.

Note: Incumbent Democrat Gray Davis running for lieutenant governor.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

Republicans: Wes Bannister of Huntington Beach, 1990 GOP nominee for commissioner; Assemblyman Charles W. Quackenbush of San Jose.

Democrats: State Sen. Art Torres of Los Angeles, Assemblyman Burt Margolin of Los Angeles.

Note: Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi is running for governor.

SUPT. OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

Nonpartisan: Assemblywoman Delaine Eastin of Fremont, ex-San Jose Mayor Tom McEnery Fresno Supt. of Schools Peter Mehas.

Note: Office is now vacant.