Vendors Rein in Electronics Show Hype
The Consumer Electronics Show has long been the place to offer futuristic demonstrations, portend gadget-inspired revolutions and peddle what is not so affectionately known as “vaporware.”
But the high-tech buzz at the winter show, which opens here today, is conspicuously lower--the result, some analysts say, of the nascent multimedia industry’s realization that too much hype can make reality pale by comparison.
Some of the show’s brightest offerings materialized in the marketplace over the last six months with less than spectacular results. 3DO’s multi-player, the sophisticated video game machine first announced at last year’s CES and shown off in prototype form at the June show, has sold fewer than 40,000 units since it reached stores in October, according to analysts’ estimates. Company goals had been as high as 100,000 for 1993.
Apple Computer’s hand-held Newton, which former Chairman John Sculley prophesied at a previous CES would “help solve world problems” was also poorly received when it was introduced this fall, as consumers discovered its most innovative features--handwriting recognition and portable telecommunications capabilities--were not in working order.
The planned launch of the Sega Channel, much whispered about at last summer’s CES and formally announced the following week, has been put off until summer. The channel will allow subscribers to download and play video games on their televisions without buying the cartridges.
“We thought we could (launch) it by the first quarter of this year,” said Doug Glen, Sega’s group vice president of business de velopment, as he wandered around the half-erected convention booths Wednesday. “But this is hard work.”
Indeed, even as sales of multimedia CD-ROM software boomed over the Christmas retail season and strategic alliances for an interactive age continue to be pounded out, analysts say the last few months have sobered an industry that, by most accounts, has coasted on hype.
“For a lot of this stuff, the expectation outstripped the reality,” said Bruce Ryon, analyst for research firm Dataquest Inc. “I think there was an assumption that the technology could do what they wanted it to--and the fact is, it’s really very complicated.”
As a result, this year’s show is likely to focus more on refining existing technology than on introducing new product lines. 3DO is expected to demonstrate higher-quality full-motion video for its multiplayer and to preview the version of the machine that will serve as a set-top cable decoder box in U.S. West’s interactive television trial this year.
Apple will show off new software for the Newton. Sega, Nintendo and Sony will give glimpses of their respective next-generation video game machines. And dozens of new multimedia titles, for the personal computer and for TV-based game systems, will be unveiled.
Emiel Petrone, marketing vice president for Philips Consumer Electronics, views the change in tone as the beginnings of maturation for an industry still very much in its infancy. Petrone has had an uphill battle marketing CD-I, which plays movies, audio CDs and interactive software. Its premiere in 1991 may have been ahead of its time.
“To convey to people what the notion of interactivity is is very difficult,” Petrone said. “It’s not the kind of product category where you wake up and say, ‘Hey, it’s 9 o’clock and I haven’t interacted yet.’ To establish a new product category in consumer electronics is more than one or two shows--we haven’t even scratched the surface.”
