Chances of a Wet Year Evaporating : Weather: The pattern of dry winds and little rainfall continues, raising fears of another long arid spell. But reservoirs are still in good shape.

As dry winds swept across Ventura County on Monday, hydrologists marked the end of another month with below-average rainfall, raising fears that the county and state may be entering another dry year.

Rainfall totals countywide are only 36% of normal for this point in the rainy season, and no rain is on the horizon at least through Sunday, meteorologists say. The statewide snowpack, which helps determine how much water can be shipped to Southern California, measured only 45% of normal, the state hydrologist said.

In addition, the National Weather Service’s long-range forecast through April calls for a 51% chance that rainfall will be below normal.

But the picture is not all gloomy, officials said. Reservoirs throughout the county and state are still in good shape from the previous two years, when rainfall was 125% and 180% of normal, respectively.

Ground-water basins are still relatively full as well, said John Weikel, senior engineer in the county’s Flood Control Department.

“But if this dry weather persists for any amount of time, we’ll be back into water conservation measures,” he said.

“We’re still hopeful of getting some significant rain in February and March,” he said, noting that the rain year that began in October has three months to go. “Back in 1991, we had even less rainfall at this time of year and February and March brought us back to normal.”

Statewide, the rainfall picture is similar to that in Ventura County, said Maurice Roos, the state hydrologist.

Roos said the best months for snow are December, January and February, followed by November and March. And with two of the three most productive months already past, Roos said the outlook is for a drier-than-normal year.

“It was drier in 1991 than it is this year,” he said. “It’s not as bad as the worst, but it would sure be nice if it were better.”

*

Reservoirs throughout the State Water Project’s network are still in good shape with the carry-over from last year, Roos said. Overall, the reservoirs are at 95% of their normal levels.

Meanwhile, Ventura County is stuck in a pattern of no rainfall and dry winds. Although the winds that gusted up to 40 m.p.h. in Camarillo on Monday caused no notable damage in the county, they are a headache to farmers, said Rex Laird, executive director of the Ventura County Farm Bureau.

The dry winds batter tree fruit and lower the price they bring on the market. And the lack of rain is forcing farmers to irrigate during a period when they can usually count on rain.

“If it’s not raining, they’re having to turn on their pumps, and that costs them money,” Laird said. And irrigation is a poor substitute for a good, drenching rain, which washes the leaves and forces salts in the soil below the root zones of the trees.

*

But Laird hasn’t heard many complaints. “Farmers have so many adversities that they are just kind of used to this,” he said. “It comes with the territory.”

And for the time being, at least, there is plenty of water to pump.

Ground-water basins are in excellent condition, said Frank Royer, assistant general manager of the United Water Conservation District.

Lake Piru is about half-full, after the district released its water down Piru Creek and into the Santa Clara River to help replenish ground-water basins.

That also makes room for runoff this year, Royer said. In the past two years, United has diverted 225,000 acre-feet of water from the river into underground basins.

“We’re in as good a shape as we were at the beginning of the drought last time around,” Royer said, referring to the six-year drought that ended in 1991.

The dry winter thus far has not affected Lake Casitas, the county’s largest reservoir, said John Johnson, manager of the Casitas Municipal Water District.

The lake is only down about 12,000 acre-feet from its capacity of 254,000 acre-feet, which it reached during last year’s storms.

“We work on a 20-year cycle, so we’re in good shape for a long time,” Johnson said. “At the end of the 1986-1991 drought, we still had half a lake. So a dry spell that lasts for one year is relatively insignificant.”

*

The reservoir levels in the State Water Project bode well for a good supply this year for Southern California users like the Calleguas Municipal Water District, said Donald Kendall, district general manager.

The district, which supplies Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Camarillo and Oxnard with all or some of their water, is now buying water to inject into the ground for storage, where it can be pumped out during dry months.

“The whole idea is that the water gets you through the dry years without having to ration,” Kendall said. “You take advantage of the water when it’s available.”

Rainfall Comparison

A look at monthly rainfall for 1993-94 compared to normal levels (averaged over 35 years):

‘93-94 Normal Oct. .21 .30 Nov. .74 2.08 Dec. 1.56 2.33 Jan. .41 3.78 Feb. NA 3.15 March NA 2.76 April NA 1.07

Source: Ventura County Public Works Department. Rainfall is measured at the Ventura County Government Center, Ventura.