Keep Leaving, Don’t Stop : Marines shoot back as March 31 pullout date draws closer

The Marines’ clash with Somalis on Monday reveals anew the shape of the chaos that will imperil the East African nation after the United States’ deadline for withdrawal of its troops. Renewed civil war, though not unavoidable, is likely as the clans vie again to lead what remains of their country.

Even so, the U.S. pullout must proceed apace. President Clinton announced the March 31 deadline last October after 18 Americans were killed in Somalia and U.S. troops became the target of intense hostility there. The early warning gave Somali leaders time to negotiate a lasting peace. They tried, sort of, but peace remains elusive, as the latest violence shows.

Peace talks--sponsored by the United Nations with the help of the leaders of neighboring Ethiopia and Eritrea--have led to an unstable cease-fire and a limited peace agreement negotiated in Mogadishu by clan elders. Sporadic hostilities among the factions continue.

Intensified fighting inevitably would mean the return of banditry and the fight for scarce resources. A new round of civil war would also cripple the physical rebuilding. It’s a little known fact that the presence of U.N. peacekeepers has kept violence from interrupting the reconstruction of many roads and the repair of public facilities.

No doubt the American departure and the ongoing exodus of Europeans will severely hamper the U.N. peacekeeping effort; U.N. troop strength is expected to drop from 25,000 to about 15,000. Weakness in the U.N. operation surely will allow Somali clan leaders to regain control in some areas. However, the West cannot be expected to risk the lives of its military personnel forever in order to police Somalia. The Americans, who went in after 350,000 Somalis died, never intended to stay permanently. Washington is right to insist that Somalis determine what happens to Somalia next.