MIGHTY DUCK NOTEBOOK / ROBYN NORWOOD : Kariya’s Arrival Date Is Far From Certain

Paul Kariya is wearing the red-and-white maple leaf of Canada in the Olympics. Question is: What jersey will he be wearing next month?

Someday, his creative and precise passes will be hitting the sticks of Mighty Duck teammates. But what are the chances it will be this season?

“Right now, I think they’re slim,” General Manager Jack Ferreira said before leaving for Norway to watch the future of the franchise.

The reason for Ferreira’s pessimism is money. Even though Kariya--drafted No. 4 overall by the Ducks last June--can’t formally negotiate with the Ducks or sign with an agent without forfeiting his remaining NCAA eligibility, there have been enough philosophical discussions and NHL rumors for Ferreira to know the sides are far apart financially.

The players taken before and after Kariya, No. 3 Chris Gratton of Tampa Bay and No. 5 Rob Niedermayer of Florida, both signed contracts with an average annual salary in the $800,000 range.

There’s no question that when Kariya signs he will immediately make more than any other Duck--defenseman Alexei Kasatonov holds that distinction at $650,000 a year. Ferreira even said he would match No. 3 pick Gratton’s four-year, $3.45-million deal in the blink of an eye, but it won’t be good enough.

Though Kariya can’t sign with an agent, he is allowed to consult a family legal adviser--in this case attorney Don Baizley, who represents several NHL stars. Though Baizley won’t discuss Kariya’s value, word in NHL circles is that it will take at least a million a year to sign him.

“I don’t know that that’s what it’s going to take,” Ferreira said. “It might be more than that.”

It helps Kariya that the Hockey News called him the second best player in the world playing outside the NHL behind Peter Forsberg--who just signed a deal with the Quebec Nordiques that will pay him about $1.2 million a year (U.S. funds).

Why don’t the Ducks just ask Michael Eisner to sweep the loose change off the top of his dresser and pay Kariya what it takes? Ferreira said he’s committed to holding the line on salaries.

“It’s important (to try to bring him in this season), but we’re not going to lose focus of where we ought to be two or three years from now in terms of salary structure,” Ferreira said, mindful that whatever he pays Kariya, he has the No. 2 pick at the draft in June and that player will expect to be paid more. “We’re not crying poor. But it’s important it be the right type of deal.”

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Kariya holds the trump card because he has options. He says he’ll wait until the Olympics end to consider them, along with his family.

“We know how very focused he always is. We’ll talk when he returns to Canada,” said his mother, Sharon.

Maine Coach Shawn Walsh hasn’t given up hope that Kariya will return to school along with Americans Chris and Peter Ferraro. With those three back, the 11-14-3 Black Bears would suddenly be contenders to repeat as NCAA Division I champions.

“All I can offer to Paul is we’re here, you can come back and be our captain,” Walsh said. “He could be back for our road trip March 4 and 5 at New Hampshire and Boston College.”

Kariya said last fall he might be tempted by the chance to win another NCAA title--or to make a run at the playoffs with the Ducks if they were somehow in contention. Surprisingly, the Ducks are closer to the playoffs than Maine is to the NCAA title after a tumultuous and injury plagued season in Orono.

But there are other factors. After the Olympics, would he prefer to return the familiar surroundings at Maine--or get a head start on the adjustment to the NHL?

“I think Paul would like to start his NHL career fresh--and he’s anything but fresh right now,” Walsh said.

Kariya also is fond of saying that you can go too early, but he has never heard of anyone turning professional too late.

Ferreira thinks those are all peripheral issues.

“I don’t think there’s a question that he’ll come if the dollars are right,” Ferreira said. “I get every indication if we put the right deal on the table, he’ll be here right after the Olympics. He’s never come out and said he’s going to go back to school.”

Walsh thinks if the Ducks really want Kariya for their stretch run, they’ll be able to sign him.

“I think it’s their call,” Walsh said. “But he’s a sensitive guy. It’s tough, I’ve learned not to predict what he’ll do.”

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If Kariya doesn’t join the Ducks until next fall, the Ducks could bring in three potential stars at training camp--Kariya, unsigned 1993 third-round pick Valeri Karpov and this year’s No. 2 overall pick.

Karpov--who is playing for Russia in the Olympics--didn’t reach a contract agreement with the Ducks last summer, but his new agent, Jay Grossman, said he expects Karpov to sign this summer. The No. 2 pick overall--if Florida doesn’t take him first--could be Radek Bonk, who is playing for Las Vegas of the International League at 18.

Contracts of 1993’s Top Draft Picks

Player Team Years Salary* Yearly** 1. Alexandre Daigle Ottawa 5 $12.25 million $2.45 million 2. Chris Pronger Hartford 4 $7.0 million $1.75 million 3. Chris Gratton Tampa Bay 4 $3.45 million $862,500 4. Paul Kariya Anaheim Unsigned -- -- 5. Rob Niedermayer Florida 4 $3.3 million $825,000 6. Viktor Kozlov San Jose Unsigned -- -- 7. Jason Arnott Edmonton 3 $2.1 million $700,000

*--Includes signing and reporting bonuses

**--Yearly average salary including bonuses

Notes: Amounts for Canadian teams are in Canadian funds (dollars worth 74.5 cents U.S.). Daigle’s contract, but no others, includes marketing rights.