Warplanes Set, Clinton Warns : Bosnia: But he is hopeful as NATO deadline nears. U.N. officials upbeat, although questions remain whether the Serbs are fully complying on arms pullback or turnover.

President Clinton warned Saturday that U.S. warplanes are set to launch air strikes if all heavy weapons surrounding the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo are not pulled out or placed under U.N. control by the time a NATO-set deadline expires tonight. But U.N. officials insisted the withdrawal of Serbian artillery is well under way.

Calling signs of a Bosnian Serb pullback encouraging, Clinton said in his weekly radio address that he remains hopeful that there “will be no need to use force against anyone.”

But he stressed that “American pilots and planes stand ready to do our part” by helping NATO to carry out its threat to launch air strikes in Bosnia-Herzegovina if Serbian forces do not meet the deadline at 1 a.m. Monday Sarajevo time (4 p.m. Pacific time today).

While Clinton used his address to prepare Americans for the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Bosnia, there were conflicting signals from Sarajevo about whether the Serbs will satisfy the NATO ultimatum.

“We share the confidence that this can be concluded,” U.N. special envoy Yasushi Akashi said, and Lt. Gen. Michael Rose, the British officer commanding the 13,000-member U.N. force in Bosnia, also expressed optimism that the deadline would be met.

However, Bosnian government officials sharply criticized the U.N.-supervised effort to clear big guns from around Sarajevo, claiming that many of the Bosnian Serb weapons were still in the area.

The Muslim-led government appealed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to make an independent assessment of Serbian compliance with the ultimatum, which was set after a mortar shell killed 68 people in a Sarajevo marketplace Feb. 5.

Bosnian Vice President Ejup Ganic accused U.N. officials of capitulating to Serbian demands that most of the weapons remain in place and dismissed the fact that they were being turned over to teams of U.N. observers, arguing that surrounding the Serbs’ artillery with U.N. forces only served to protect them from the threatened NATO air strikes.

“We see the U.N. soldiers being used as a shelter, creating an umbrella” to deflect any possible NATO reprisal, Ganic charged.

“In the case that the international community decides to take air strikes, these conditions will make it impossible,” he added.

Other Bosnian officials complained that, on the eve of the NATO deadline, hundreds of Serbian artillery pieces were still positioned in the hills above Sarajevo.

Mustafa Hajrulahovic, a member of the supreme command of the Bosnian army, told reporters in Sarajevo that the Serbs still had more than 100 antiaircraft guns, 70 tanks and 95 howitzers deployed inside the exclusion zone. “One can conclude the NATO Pact resolution has not been observed,” he said.

The NATO ultimatum originally ordered that all guns within a 12-mile radius of Sarajevo be withdrawn or surrendered by tonight. But at U.N. urging, the ultimatum was amended to allow the Serbs to keep some of their 500 heavy artillery pieces within the safety zone as long as they are rendered inoperable or deemed to be under U.N. control.

Akashi said Saturday that 100 weapons had been turned over--70 by the Serbs and 30 by the Bosnian government. It was unclear how many had been removed from the area. The Muslim-led government has considerably less firepower.

Rose rejected Ganic’s assertion that the Serbs were using the United Nations to circumvent the NATO ultimatum.

“To say that the weapons will be fired on the city is to ignore the fact that they are now under our control, and it’s irrelevant where they happen to be located,” Rose said.

In Washington, a senior State Department official said Russian Foreign Minister Andrei V. Kozyrev assured Secretary of State Warren Christopher that the Bosnian Serbs would comply with the ultimatum.

Russia had offered on Thursday to send 400 U.N. peacekeeping troops to Sarajevo if the Serb rebels would accede to NATO’s demands. The Russian peacekeepers, redeployed from Croatia, arrived in Bosnia on Saturday, wire reports said.

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic had earlier pledged to comply by midnight Saturday, a day early.

However, senior Administration officials remained guarded in their assessments of Serbian compliance, saying only that the evidence is still ambiguous and that poor visibility due to dense snowfalls was making it difficult both to move heavy weaponry and to confirm its removal.

Kozyrev, who spoke with Christopher for 30 minutes by phone on Saturday from Prague, said the Serbs “did not make any suggestion that the West should extend the deadline,” the State Department official said.

Clinton, in his radio address, said American and other NATO military planners still “do not yet know whether air strikes will be necessary.” There is “some evidence that heavy weapons are being pulled back from around Sarajevo, but others remain,” he added.

Clinton’s caution on the status of Serbian compliance was echoed throughout the day by other senior officials, including National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, who said there were “hopeful signs” that the Serbs were pulling back but that “the evidence is still mixed.”

A senior White House official, briefing reporters Saturday evening on the situation in Sarajevo, said Serbian columns were moving out of the exclusion zone but that there was “evidence that some weapons systems still remain in place in Sarajevo.”

Meanwhile, military preparations for any NATO air strikes were proceeding apace.

Defense Secretary William J. Perry and Gen. John M. Shalikashvili, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, left for Aviano, Italy, after the President’s address to review the strike plan.

They were being joined there by the defense ministers of Britain, France and the Netherlands for a final round of consultations before the deadline expires.

White House Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers said Clinton spoke by phone with French President Francois Mitterrand, who renewed his commitment to tonight’s deadline.

A senior Administration source, citing the heavy snows and poor visibility, cautioned against expectations that air strikes might be launched “the minute the deadline expires.” But he added that “there will be no backing off.”

At NATO’s southern European command in Naples, Italy, a senior official said that NATO commanders had endorsed a “phased approach” in which limited air strikes might be launched against selected targets to see what the reaction would be.

If limited air strikes did not force compliance with the NATO ultimatum, then wider and more intense attacks would be launched in a subsequent phase, the official added.

The advantage of this phased approach, the official said, was that it would demonstrate that NATO is serious about enforcing the ultimatum while at the same time minimizing the risk that the air strikes would spark a wider war in Bosnia or trigger retaliation against U.N. peacekeepers.

Acknowledging the possibility of American losses, Clinton again pledged that no American ground forces would be sent to Bosnia to “impose a settlement that the parties to the conflict do not accept.”

But saying that the Bosnian Serbs “bear primary responsibility” for the violence that has left 250,000 people missing or dead over the past two years in the former Yugoslav republic, Clinton said that the air strikes were needed to force the Serbs to “seek a solution through negotiation.”

Looking beyond tonight’s deadline, Clinton said he had ordered American negotiators to intensify efforts to help the warring parties reach “a fair and enforceable settlement,” and he insisted that the Bosnian quagmire was still primarily a problem for the Europeans to handle.

But he also told the nation that the world still “looks to America for leadership” and that it is vital to U.S. interests to prevent a broader European conflict.

Ross reported from Washington and Williams from Sarajevo. Times staff writers Elizabeth Shogren and Norman Kempster contributed to this story.

* RELATED STORIES: A19-22

Showdown Over Sarajevo

The current crisis point in the Balkans is Sarajevo. Under a NATO ultimatum, Bosnia’s Serbs must pull back weapons by 4 p.m. Pacific time today. If they fail, NATO has vowed to send in warplanes to free up the besieged city.

Where Would NATO Strike?

NATO air strikes would break the siege by disabling the deadly guns ringing the capital and forcing the Serbian rebels to flee. Air Force and Navy reconnaissance planes have already pinpointed threatening artillery around Sarajevo as well as Serbian command bunkers, weapon-and-fuel storage areas and other “high-value” targets.

The Exclusion Zone

NATO has called for Serb heavy weapons to be moved at least 12 miles from the center of the city or face attack starting as early as Monday.

If NATO Goes In, What Are the Risks?

Serbian leaders have warned that Western intervention might actually widen the Balkan conflict rather than contain it. U.N. officials are concerned about:

1. 40,000 Muslims trapped in Srebrenica and the 50 Canadian soldiers serving as the encircled town’s human shield.

2. A French battalion in the Bihac region.

3. A Canadian battalion in Visoko.

4. A British peacekeeping base near Vitez.

5. Red Cross and U.N. relief workers and journalists throughout Serbian-held territory. “In case of air strikes, all foreigners who find themselves on our territory will become hostages,” said Gen. Manojlo Milovanovic, the Bosnian Serb army chief of staff.

Where Would Attack Come From?

NATO has amassed more than 200 combat aircraft and a flotilla or warships around the Adriatic Sea. Other main staging points would be Villafranca in Spain and Aviano and Brindisi in Italy. NATO defense ministers meeting in Aviano today

NATO Nations Deployed for Possible Raids

About 4,000 personnel from:

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

France

Germany

Italy

The Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Turkey

Britain

United States

Firepower Includes (Fighters or fighter-bombers):

F-15E

F-16A

Mirage 2000

Mirage F-1

Jaguars

Super Etendard 4Ps

F/A-18C

F-16C

A-6

Mirage F1 CTs

F-3 Tornado

Sea Harrier

Other aircraft:

E-3A

KC-135

AC-130

CASA 212 (Spanish)

AWACS

K-1 Tristar refuelers

Flight Times to Sarajevo: 45 minutes or less

The Forces in Bosnia and What They’re Seeking

Background: About 200,000 people have been reported dead or missing in Bosnia since minority Serbs rebelled in April, 1992. They are seeking to overturn Bosnia’s secession from Serb-dominated Yugoslav federation. About 10,000 of the deaths occurred in Sarajevo. NATO has issued an ultimatum to the Serbs to end the siege or face air strikes. The ultimatum was issued after a mortar attack on a Sarajevo street market Feb. 5 killed 68 people.

Army: Bosnia Serb Army (created from Yugoslav federal army)

Troops: About 80,000

Weapons: 300 tanks, 200 personnel carriers, 600 to 1,000 artillery pieces, 30 helicopters, 20 fighter aircraft

What They Want: A separate state that could unite with Serbian-held lands in Croatia and Serbia proper

*

Army: Bosnian Muslim defense forces

Troops: 100,000-120,000

Weapons: Mainly small-arms; limited heavy equipment; fewer than 10 helicopters

What They Want: Access to the Adriatic Sea from the Croats and links through Serb-held territory with isolated eastern enclaves and Sava River

*

Army: Bosnian Croat forces

Troops: About 40,000

Weapons: Mainly small arms; limited tanks, artillery; fewer than 10 copters

Army: Croatian forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina

Troops: 3,000 to 5,000

Weapons: Fewer than 50 tanks; limited artillery

What They Want: Most want to consolidate their ministate and eventually unite with Croatia. Some seek a unified but decentralized Bosnia.

Sources: U.S. Department of Defense, Times Washington Bureau and foreign bureaus, NATO, Associated Press