NEWS ANALYSIS : Rapist’s Release Shakes Up Governor’s Race : Campaign: Wilson is taking heat even though he advocates life terms for such criminals. The outcry threatens his best political weapon--a reputation of being tough on crime.

Gov. Pete Wilson, who built his political career advocating laws to lock up criminals for longer terms, now finds himself the object of considerable scorn over the release of just the sort of person he has said should be put away forever.

The Republican governor has been assailed by a Democratic challenger, criticized by Bay Area residents and ripped by law enforcement officials in Modoc County, the rural outpost that the state decided should be the new home for Melvin A. Carter, a serial rapist who has confessed to assaulting more than 100 women.

“Pete Wilson’s name is mud around here right now,” said Alturas Police Chief Larry Pickett.

After absorbing the equivalent of a political clubbing, Wilson might be forgiven for posing the question that figure skater Nancy Kerrigan made famous a few weeks ago: “Why me?”

For it was Wilson who, three days after taking office in 1991, deplored the state’s short prison terms for rapists and proposed legislation to triple their time behind bars. Since then he repeatedly, and unsuccessfully, has urged Democratic lawmakers to lengthen those sentences and to curtail the kind of good-time credits that enabled Carter to slice his 25-year prison term in half.

Wilson’s aides and political strategists hope to turn the anger at the governor into energy that will help him gain passage of the so-called “one strike” bill that would imprison first-time rapists and child molesters for life without possibility of parole.

They note that the “three strikes and you’re out” sentencing bill Wilson signed this month was moribund in the Legislature until 12-year-old Polly Klaas was kidnaped and murdered in Petaluma last year. They think that the Carter case and that of a Southern California serial rapist whose term also is ending could be just the push the rape sentencing bill needs.

But in the meantime, they are faced with trying to limit political damage to Wilson from an issue that historically has been his best weapon.

As Wilson responds, he risks sounding weak if he complains, accurately, that his hands are tied and that he has no choice but to release Carter. He risks sounding whiny if he complains, truthfully, that the Legislature would not pass his proposals. He risks offending rural voters if he suggests that the urban areas’ worst criminals should be released in remote areas.

And Wilson, whose strategists believe can win reelection if he brings back into his fold Republican women who have turned away from him in many polls, must find a way to sound tougher and more sympathetic on the rape issue than state Treasurer Kathleen Brown, the Democratic candidate most eager to challenge him on it.

Brown helped set off the political storm last week when she criticized Wilson for allowing the release of Carter, 49, who was convicted in 1982 of raping 12 women in Palo Alto, Berkeley and other Bay Area college towns. Sentenced to 25 years in prison, Carter was released after 12 years because of credits for good behavior and his willingness to work while behind bars.

As Carter’s release date neared, a Bay Area newspaper publicized the case, setting off an uproar in Hayward, where prison officials had hoped to place him. Brown said that Wilson and the Department of Corrections had fumbled a chance to keep Carter locked up for two more years.

Wilson responded immediately with evidence that undercut Brown’s charge, and political consultants and pundits concluded that he had effectively snuffed the controversy and gained the upper hand by making Brown appear unprepared and irresponsible.

But since then the matter has continued to escalate.

Wilson is now getting heat not only for releasing Carter--an action he could not prevent--but for his choice of Modoc County as host to the notorious criminal. The suspicion in Alturas is that Wilson chose their county after doing a bit of political calculus and realizing that he had much more to lose by sending Carter back to his populous Bay Area home.

“I recognize that the reason they’re releasing this guy is because of laws passed long before Wilson took office,” said Assemblyman Bernie Richter, a Chico Republican who represents the area. “I don’t blame him for those laws.

“But you can’t just thrust the Hitler of all rapists on this small community of good, hard-working people. The people here feel violated, used and dumped on. They’re loyal Republicans, and they feel betrayed, like they’ve been the victim of a political rape.”

Police Chief Pickett said Wilson has alienated his traditional allies in the community.

“Let me tell you,” Pickett said, “Pete Wilson is gone. I voted for him. The sheriff voted for him. But we sure as hell won’t support him in the future. He made this a dumping ground for dangerous parolees.”

Residents of Alturas believe there is some simple math behind Wilson’s decision: The discontent of 10,000 registered voters in the state’s isolated, northeastern corner means little in a governor’s race playing out in front of 14 million registered voters.

Mark DiCamillo, an assistant to veteran pollster Mervin Field, said Wilson’s long record on crime issues should insulate him from any significant widespread defections over the release of Carter.

“It’s a thorny issue for the governor and it will probably cause some minor damage in the short term,” DiCamillo said. “But I don’t think the governor is vulnerable on the issue of crime. He has shown himself to be as tough as he possibly can be on criminal justice.”

But the Democratic candidates, particularly Brown, are intent on trying to undercut Wilson’s perceived advantage on the crime issue.

While Brown has been quiet about the Carter case since she leveled her original attack, her campaign spokesman said that the treasurer believes Wilson can be held accountable for failing to win legislative approval for longer rape sentences.

“This is a governor who will always blame somebody for his failures; in this case he’s going to blame the Legislature,” said Michael Reese, Brown’s press secretary. “This state needs stronger leadership and not just election-year leadership. That’s what has been missing in this Administration.”

Reese said Brown supports lengthening the sentences for rape but opposes the “one-strike” bill because she believes it may discourage rape prosecutions. She has not put forward another specific proposal.

Dan Schnur, Wilson’s campaign spokesman, said the public outcry over the Carter case was fed in part by what he called a “massive campaign of misinformation” by Brown that he predicted will backfire on her.

“It’s a technique that historically has worked in the short run,” Schnur said. “But it’s never worked in the long run. Eventually, the facts catch up with you.”

Times staff writer Jenifer Warren contributed to this article.