THE TIMES POLL : Roberti Holds Wide Lead in Recall Election

State Sen. David A. Roberti (D-Van Nuys) is holding a wide lead in his fight to beat back an April 12 recall election that has been largely organized by firearms rights advocates and is being closely watched nationally as a referendum on gun control.

A Times poll conducted March 19-24 found that among 1,151 potential voters in his San Fernando Valley district, Roberti holds a 40% to 22% advantage. And among those likely to vote in what is expected to be an election with a very low turnout, Roberti enjoys a commanding lead of 62% to 28% with only 10% undecided.

Roberti’s campaign message appears to be on target for 20th District voters, who are highly supportive of gun control laws and heavily Democratic, and who widely view the recall election as a waste of taxpayers’ money. Three-quarters of the voters say gun control laws should be stricter.

Roberti has portrayed the recall as the work of “assault weapons extremists” seeking revenge for his writing a 1989 state law banning the sale of military-style semiautomatic weapons.

Roberti calls the recall, which will cost an estimated $800,000, a waste because he must retire in December as a result of voter-imposed term limits. Two-thirds of those polled agreed that the election is a waste of money.

The Roberti election is seen as a major test of strength between gun control advocates and opponents and has attracted a national audience, with prominent gun control advocate Sarah Brady making the fight a priority of her group, Handgun Control Inc. Brady is the wife of former presidential press secretary James Brady, who was shot and critically injured in a 1981 assassination attempt on then-President Ronald Reagan.

Although the National Rifle Assn. is not officially involved in the recall effort, many gun rights groups have contributed money and time to the cause, including Gun Owners of California, a group founded by former state Sen. H. L. Richardson.

Roberti is running for state treasurer, and his political handlers are hoping that the attention he has gained from the recall election will help him as he battles Phil Angelides in the June primary for the Democratic nomination.

Roberti’s opponents are just now preparing a direct-mail offensive. To date, their campaign has suffered from a lack of money and an inability to generate widespread publicity.

Roberti has said he expects to spend $750,000 to beat the recall attempt.

The race looked different in January, when the Coalition to Restore Government Integritysurprised many political observers by collecting more than 20,000 signatures on petitions and forcing Roberti into the recall election.

It is the first recall attempt against an elected state official in 80 years.

In 1992, Roberti spent more than $2 million to win 43% of the vote and a narrow victory over four poorly funded challengers.

According to Times Poll Director John Brennan, “it looks like firearms rights advocates have picked the wrong time and place to make their case against gun control.”

The 20th District, which includes Reseda, Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Panorama City, Pacoima and Sylmar, is Democratic by a 2-1 margin in voter registration, Brennan noted, and residents are preoccupied with concerns about crime, violence and gangs and are strongly disposed in favor of gun control.

Among all voters, the Times poll found widespread support for gun control. A total of 74% of the voters said they believe stricter gun control measures are needed, while another 67% said the NRA wields too much influence.

Of all voters surveyed by The Times, 83% said they supported Roberti’s 1989 legislation to ban the sale of so-called assault weapons and require owners who purchased the weapons before the ban to register them.

Three-quarters of those surveyed put crime-related issues at the top of their list of community problems.

Meanwhile, voters who favored Roberti volunteered that the senator’s position on gun control was their biggest reason for supporting him. Among his supporters, 31% are voting for Roberti because of his gun control position, while 14% said they were voting for the incumbent because the gun lobby was ganging up on him. A total of 17% said they were voting for him because they believe he was doing a good job; 15% said he did not deserve to be recalled, and 10% said the recall was a waste of money.

“I’m not crazy about Roberti,” said Reseda resident Lynne Walsh, who cited, for example, the senator’s opposition to abortion. “But I’m voting for him to send a message to the NRA.”

Grace Harrison, a homemaker from North Hills, said she did not understand why Roberti should be recalled when his term is nearly up. “Why waste the money?” said Harrison, who also took a shot at the National Rifle Assn. “They are so one-sided that they can’t see the possibility that gun control would help reduce violent crime.”

Although he is an NRA member, electronics engineer John Long said he would vote to keep Roberti in office. “He hasn’t done anything wrong,” Long said. “Besides, who needs to own those MAC-10 and AK-47 assault weapons?”

The recall proponents have also called Roberti corrupt, charging that the Senate’s former president pro tempore shares responsibility for the political corruption that has rocked Sacramento in recent years and resulted in the conviction of half a dozen prominent Capitol figures, including former Sen. Alan Robbins, a Roberti ally.

But that tactic has also failed to make headway with most voters, the Times poll found. Asked if Roberti were to blame for the corruption, 57% said he was either not responsible at all or “not much” to blame. Only a quarter said he deserved a good amount of the blame.

Gun control was also the major issue animating voters opposed to Roberti.

The Times poll found that 22% of those who said they would vote to recall the senator cited Roberti’s position on gun control as their reason. Another 17% said they believe Roberti is personally corrupt and 13% that he had been in office too long.

“Roberti’s a gun-grabber,” said Michael Pratt, a disabled videotape operator from North Hollywood. “I value my 2nd Amendment rights just as much as I do my 1st Amendment rights.”

Robert J. Scott, an aerospace worker from Reseda who is a member of the Libertarian Party, said he has been urged by his party to vote for Roberti’s ouster. “I’m not a member of the NRA, but I think that gun control is ineffective as a means of preventing crime.”

Finally, an overwhelming number of voters have little or no knowledge of the five candidates who are running to succeed Roberti if he is recalled. If Roberti fails to get more than 50% of the vote, he will be instantly removed from office and the highest vote-getter among the five will take his seat.

The five are Dolores White, a real estate broker and longtime Republican activist; Al Dib, a retired produce market owner and perennial candidate; systems analyst Bill Dominguez, the leader of the recall signature-gathering drive and the only Democrat among the challengers; Randy Linkmeyer, the owner of a Canoga Park gun store, and Larry Martz, a handyman and official with a Valley gun club.

Fewer than 20% of the voters had an opinion about each of the five. With 58% of likely voters undecided about whom they would pick among the five, the Times poll found that none of them had a significant advantage among voters willing to make a choice.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,343 registered voters in the San Fernando Valley’s 20th State Senate District, by telephone, from March 19 through 24. Of that group, 1,151 are potential voters in the April 12 special recall election and 280 are highly likely to vote. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the district. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race and age. The margin of sampling error for the registered and potential voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 7 points. For certain other sub-groups the error margin may vary. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Roberti Holdings Off Recall Effort

With two weeks of campaigning left, the recall effort against state Sen. David Roberti is lagging badly. Most voters favor stronger gun control laws and see the recall as a waste of taxpayer dollars.

* If the April 12 special recall election were being held today, would you vote “yes” to remove Sen. David Roberti from office or would you vote “no” to keep Roberti in office?

Among likely voters:

Yes: 28%

No: 62%

Don’t know: 10%

* Should California’s gun control laws be more strict, less strict or are they about right now?

More strict: 74%

Less strict: 4%

About right now: 17%

Don’t know: 5%

* Why will you vote remove Roberti from office? (Accepted up to two replies)

Most-mentioned items:

Advocacy of gun control: 22%

Just don’t like him: 19%

He’s personally corrupt: 17%

He’s been in office too long/Too much of an insider: 13%

He’s a carpetbagger/Not from the Valley: 8%

He hasn’t fought corruption in Legislature: 5%

He’s soft on crime/Opposes capital punishment: 5%

* How much is Roberti to blame for what some see as a climate of corruption in the state Legislature?

Not much/None at all: 57%

Don’t know: 18%

Great deal/Good amount: 25%

* Why will you vote to keep Roberti in office? (Accepted up to two responses)

Most-mentioned items:

Like his gun control stance: 31%

He’s doing a good job as senator: 17%

He’s leaving office anyway: 15%

He’s done nothing to deserve being recalled: 15%

Pro-gun lobby is ganging up on him: 14%

Angry that money is being wasted on recall election: 10%

* Regardless of your opinion of Sen. Roberti, do you think the April 12 special recall election is necessary and worthwhile or is it a waste of taxpayers’ money?

Waste of money: 66%

Mixed feelings (volunteered): 3%

Don’t know: 8%

Necessary and important: 23%

Source: L.A. Times Poll of California’s 20th State Senate District