Valley Commentary : The Unknown Election : Opponents of recalling Sen. David Roberti should not be overconfident just because of recent poll results indicating he will easily keep his seat. Political body-snatchers could come out of nowhere.

There is, I think, an overwhelming sense of confidence among opponents of recalling state Sen. David Roberti in Tuesday’s election. Whether you’re just a good Democratic Party regular or an opponent of the National Rifle Assn., the Times Poll published March 26 provided the reassurance that the gun nuts aren’t going to take over our Valley.

The poll showed Roberti with a comfortable 20-point lead--an affirmation to all who oppose the recall that the forces of good are, at least, in the lead. But before we go making plans for an election night shindig, a few words of caution are in order.

Rule No. 1: It ain’t over till it’s over. Yogi was right. Larger leads have been erased, and this issue will not be decided just by the people you and I talk to.

An election held in April--not in June or November when the governor and congressional representatives are on the ballot--brings out the extremes in voters. That’s especially true of an election held in April of an even year, when the mayor and the City Council are not on the ballot. The voter turnout will be low. Most people vote for President every four years in November, but it’s only the most gung-ho voters that turn out for elections in April of even years.

This special election is not on anybody’s calendar. We’re not used to it. And because only one issue is on the ballot--the Roberti recall--the usual pre-election hoopla generated by the media and other candidates on the ballot is nonexistent.

Three groups of people know about this election: The NRA and the people who signed its recall petition, the media, and of course the targeted voters Roberti is trying to get to the polls.

On Tuesday, your average voter is more than likely cursing at his or her accountant. She or he won’t get into this political thing until Kathleen Brown and John Garamendi dump TV mud all over each other in mid-May.

So while the poll numbers might sound good for Roberti, the extremists who are for assault rifles and signed the NRA petition to recall him aren’t in the usual “random sample” of voters who are likely to vote.

Rule No. 2: There is no safety in numbers. This was the plaque that used to hang behind Assemblyman Richard Katz’s desk, a gift from the many volunteers who worked on campaigns in his so called “safe” 57% Democratic district (which is part of Roberti’s Senate district).

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In a similar year to this, 1986, Rose Elizabeth Bird was on the ballot in the heat of an anti-crime feeding frenzy. A Bible-thumping Republican police lieutenant named Thorsen was running for the Assembly. The north Valley, with its conservative neighborhoods in Sepulveda, Granada Hills and Lake View Terrace, was ripe for this kind of candidate.

One problem. Thorsen publicly stated that he opposed assault weapons. The NRA branded him a “gun grabber.” Katz won 60%-40%. Now Katz worked his district hard, opposed Bird and was for the death penalty. But one cannot discount the possibility that Thorsen lost a base he must have been counting on for a win.

Rule No. 3: Don’t Underestimate the NRA. In 1986, it claimed to have 12,000 members who are voters in Katz’s district alone. These political body-snatchers could come out of nowhere and provide the victory margin.

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On top of that, the people who favor gun control are, by and large, inept. Witness 1982, when they cost Tom Bradley the governorship by placing a gun-control measure on the ballot. Their decision to do so was no doubt in part based on poll numbers that showed a general support for such a measure.

Roberti has done an excellent job of crystallizing this election as a referendum--not on him, but on assault rifles. The anti-Roberti forces with their fund-raising gun raffle seem to have played right into his hands. What worries me is that the raffle may have been no blunder but a fiendishly clever ploy that will draw the NRA’s loyal, infrequent voters to the polls.

Roberti supporters would be well advised to not take anything for granted. And when in doubt, see Rule No. 1.