Stage Is Set for Expanded Intervention : The bombing over Gorazde could be a bump on the road to peace, but more likely signals a wider war against the Serbs.

The weekend NATO bombing of Serbian forces around the eastern Bosnian town of Gorazde comes as the consummation of a protracted, furious campaign here for vigorous military intervention on behalf of the Bosnian Muslims.

After teetering on the edge of the knife, amid advice by U.S. military officials not to mount air strikes against Serbs around Gorazde, the Clinton Administration reversed its posture of only last week and committed F-16Cs in two strikes. As we shall see, this was the finale of a set-up by the Bosnian Muslims.

The actual raids won’t make any difference in the local tactical situation. So the real intent is to signal what Henry Kissinger used to call “U.S. resolve.”

But resolve for what?

With the secession--amid Western encouragement--of Slovenia and Croatia from the old Yugoslav federation, and the prompt recognition by the West of the breakaway in April, 1992, of the Muslim-dominated republic of Bosnia, bloodshed was assured. The Serbs in the Krajina enclave in Croatia and in the fragile ethnic and religious mix in Bosnia felt that their position had become impossibly precarious. The war, with all its horrors, began.

The deal pushed by the United States this spring fostered a closer relationship between the Croatians and the Bosnian Muslims. The Serbs in their enclave in Croatian Krajina would acknowledge Croat suzerainty, but receive guarantees of some form of autonomy. As envisaged in all the peace plans, the Serbs in Bosnia would hold about 50% of Bosnia. Serbian concerns would thus be allayed.

But the Serbs could be reading this very differently. U.S.-fostered ties between Croatia and the Bosnian Muslims mean that arms now flow unimpeded through Croatia to the increasingly formidable Muslim forces, which are commencing onslaughts against the Serbs.

Furthermore, Croatia could start pressing down on the Serbs in Krajina, evoking once again memories of the terrible massacres of World War II.

The Serb attack on Gorazde reflects their fear that the diplomatic and military balance of forces has turned against them and that a U.S.-Croatian-Muslim coalition will engineer all the perils Serbs feared back in 1992.

They have good reasons to sense a double-cross. The Western press have been overwhelmingly blind to Serb concerns and partial--often grossly so so--to the Bosnian Muslims as the latter maneuvered toward U.S. military intervention on their side, which is now taking place.

Take the Feb. 5 shelling of the marketplace in Sarajevo that killed more than 60 people and decisively strengthened the hand of those urging intervention.

BBC correspondent John Simpson, writing in the British weekly the Spectator for April 2, describes how Bosnia’s President Alija Izetbegovic failed to appear at a Feb. 9 cease-fire meeting among all parties brokered by the U.N. commander, Lt. Gen. Michael Rose. It seemed that once again, as so often before, Izetbegovic was trying to torpedo any cease-fire or settlement.

Rose, according to Simpson (himself no friend of the Serbs and writing in a fanatically pro-interventionist periodical) sprang into his armored car, made haste to Izetbegovic’s quarters and closeted himself with the Muslim president, who proceeded to the peace meeting shortly thereafter.

Simpson writes that according to one “insider” (one would surmise, Sir Michael himself) the British general “threatened to question publicly whether the Serbs really had been responsible for the marketplace explosion.” Rose officially denies the story and the Muslims are saying nothing. Experienced correspondent Misha Glenny has also hinted at Muslim culpability.

The Serbs’ attack on Gorazde was preceded last week by Muslim attacks on Serbs in central Bosnia. The Serbs said they would retaliate unless the Muslims guaranteed a cease-fire. The Muslims offered only a 24-hour truce. The Serb attacks on Gorazde followed, with--according to the London Financial Times of last Friday--U.N. officials on the spot admonished by their bosses to downplay the Muslim provocation.

The Bosnian Muslims and their U.S. public-relations firm have been successful in manipulating opinion here. The stage is now set for larger intervention against the Serbs.

A pessimist or a cynic could see across the rubble of President Clinton’s domestic policies and the Whitewater mess the outline of a more bellicose foreign stance. Today, bombs over Gorazde; tomorrow, bombs over North Korea. The Clinton Administration may feel that Serbia’s sponsor, Russia, is toothless as Boris Yeltsin slumbers through his twilight. They should beware. As veterans of the Korean War will recall, China is a different matter.