Japanese Socialists Bolt, Imperil Coalition Rule : Politics: Hata, new premier, loses majority in Parliament. Future of his government is in doubt.

Twelve hours after electing former Foreign Minister Tsutomu Hata as prime minister in Parliament, Japan’s fractious ruling coalition collapsed early this morning.

Socialist Chairman Tomiichi Murayama announced at 1:22 a.m. that his party was bolting the coalition and would no longer be bound by a policy agreement hammered out just last Friday after seven days of bitter debate that had pushed the coalition to the brink of a split.

The move stripped Hata’s coalition of its majorities in both the lower and upper houses of Parliament and left up in the air whether the coalition can continue to rule.

It also threw into doubt Japan’s ability to fulfill a promise to the United States to produce a sweeping program of economic policies in June to substantially reduce its $141-billion global trade surplus, including a $60-billion imbalance with the United States.

Although Hata won 274 votes in the lower house election for prime minister--a solid majority in the 511-seat chamber--a walkout by all 74 Socialists would reduce the coalition’s strength to 200 seats.

That is fewer than the 206 seats held by the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that was ousted last summer after 38 years in power.

If the 15-seat New Party Harbinger--which has already announced that it will not join the new Cabinet--sides with the Socialists, the blow could be even bigger.

There was no clear forecast of what might lie ahead. Among the possible scenarios:

* The coalition could retain control if there is a split in the Socialist Party--whose rank-and-file members must still discuss their leaders’ abrupt move--and if there are defections from the opposition Liberal Democrats.

* The coalition might try to run a minority government by negotiating with parts of the opposition, including the Socialists, for support on every bill, including the budget; this would be exceptionally risky, though, because the coalition would have to hope that no party would submit a no-confidence motion.

* The coalition-led government might dissolve the lower house and call a general election in hopes of settling the political chaos. Or there might be an alliance of convenience between the Socialists and the Liberal Democrats. Both of these steps, however, could threaten already-enacted political reforms--cornerstones of eight months of labors by the coalition. The reforms will take effect only after Parliament enacts a bill to fix boundaries of new single-seat districts; any election before then would be held under the old system, with multi-seat districts and voters electing an average of four lawmakers from each constituency.

Announcing the Socialists’ decision to quit the coalition, Murayama condemned their partners, including Hata’s Renewal Party, for committing “an act of betrayal” by secretly forming a new “parliamentary bargaining group” called Kaishin (Reformation) and for “changing the framework of the coalition” by admitting two mini-parties that had not been in the coalition under former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa.

These acts, he said, were committed “without any consultations at all” with the Socialists and destroyed “the faith and trust” on which any coalition depends. “From the standpoint of running the coalition democratically, we cannot forgive these acts,” he said.

The Socialist leader noted that the coalition earlier had agreed to freeze moves to form any “bargaining group”--a group that operates in Parliament as a single party but whose two or more parties field candidates separately in elections.

Socialists, who have insisted on maintaining their own identity within the coalition, want to see Japan retain a multi-party political system. In contrast, Ichiro Ozawa, deputy leader of Hata’s party and chief strategist under Hosokawa’s coalition, advocates a two-party system. Formation of the new alliance in Parliament was widely viewed as a step in that direction.

Murayama indirectly accused Ozawa of masterminding the alliance in order to isolate the Socialists.

The Socialist chief said he had called Hata to inform him of the decision made only by himself and the party’s other two top officials. Hata asked him to “wait, wait,” but he said he replied, “There is no room for any more discussions.”

Later, the Socialists’ central committee formally approved the leaders’ decision unanimously. In a separate meeting, the party’s potential defectors--who are banded together in a conservative group called the “Democrats”--also backed the move.

Hata said he will appeal to the Socialists to reverse their decision. If he fails, the remaining coalition partners will form a Cabinet by themselves, party leaders decided today, nine hours after disbanding in the middle of the night.

Under Japan’s constitution, Hata will not officially assume power as prime minister until a ceremony is held in the presence of Emperor Akihito. Until then, Hosokawa and his Cabinet ministers, who resigned Monday, formally retain power.

Liberal Democrat President Yohei Kono condemned Ozawa’s “highhanded” methods of decision-making and said he will appeal to both the Socialists and the New Party Harbinger to form an agreement on “how to operate Parliament.” The statement was regarded as a veiled invitation to form a new coalition.

Hata failed to explain why he had not called a meeting of coalition party chiefs Monday afternoon, as tentatively scheduled, to discuss the formation of a new Cabinet. Murayama angrily charged that he had waited four hours and learned only minutes before the meeting was finally to begin that the Reformation group already had been officially registered as a new parliamentary group with 130 lawmakers.

Although apparently planned in advance, formation of Reformation came without any public warning.

Keigo Ouchi--chairman of the middle-of-the-road Democratic Socialist Party, which earlier had aligned itself with the Socialists--fired the first shot. Without informing the Socialists, he telephoned other parties in the coalition to ask them to align themselves in the single bargaining group. Ouchi later said such a move would strengthen Hata’s base of support.

With blitzkrieg speed, Hata’s Renewal Party, Hosokawa’s Japan New Party, the Democratic Socialists and the two splinter parties leaped on the bandwagon. The Buddhist-backed Clean Government Party and a band of five recent defectors from the LDP also were reported leaning toward joining the group. But even with them, the group would fall far short of a majority.

By the time the Socialists learned of the moves, Ouchi’s proposal had taken on the air of an ultimatum to “join or quit” the coalition.

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