NEWS ANALYSIS : Governor’s Race to Be Run in Middle of Political Road

The 1994 battle for governor will be fought in trenches near the center of the California political spectrum for the support of a relatively small cadre of swayable voters and over fine points of issues and leadership, political experts said Wednesday.

This will not be a grand ideological struggle for voters’ hearts and minds on the parts of Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and Democratic State Treasurer Kathleen Brown.

Both candidates basically are moderate centrists who are keen on policy details and practical management solutions. In most cases, their real differences will be nuances and shadings of positions and styles rather than stark blacks and whites.

Their appeals will be to the murky middle of the electorate that is open to voting perhaps one way or the other, or maybe just staying home Nov. 8. These independent voters are Democrats and Republicans willing to switch parties on the basis of the person and less susceptible to ideological appeal.

A key for Brown is to convince targeted groups of voters that Wilson, 60, does not merit a second term, said Brown’s campaign manager, Clint Reilly.

But incumbency works in Wilson’s favor, countered Ken Khachigian, a veteran Republican political consultant, who said, “I think the one thing Kathleen would have to do is what is hardest for her--and the biggest advantage for Pete--and that is to be gubernatorial.”

Based on Brown’s sometimes rocky performance during the primary campaign, Khachigian believes that Brown, 48, “just can’t quite get over that hump of not seeming altogether prepared to be governor.”

The dilemma for many voters will be to choose between the possible desire for change on one hand, or the option of sticking with a known quantity on the other, even if the past four years haven’t been so rosy.

Experts who analyzed the primary election results--in which both Brown and Wilson won, as expected--said a relatively small group among California’s 14 million registered voters could provide the key to the election in November.

They include disaffected Democrats who didn’t vote for Brown and disgruntled Republicans who didn’t vote for Wilson on Tuesday. The candidates must work to capture those voters from within their own parties. The Los Angeles Times’ primary election exit poll indicated that Brown faces the more daunting task in this regard.

However, the electorate in the fall is likely to be quite different from what it was in the primary, in which there was a record low turnout dominated by elderly, white and affluent voters. On Tuesday, challenger John Garamendi matched Brown in support from one category of Democratic voter, those 50 and older. In November, however, the proportion of older voters is likely to be smaller.

Broken down to subgroups, the fall struggle will concentrate on the elderly, on moderate Republican women who may be unhappy with Wilson and might be attracted to the idea of a female governor, on suburban and rural Democratic men uncomfortable with the idea of a female governor, and on independent voters who did not participate in Tuesday’s party primaries.

Both candidates will focus on geographic target areas of potential swing voters, including the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, and growing suburban areas such as Contra Costa County east of San Francisco Bay, San Diego County and the Central Coast.

To the extent that issues can sway an election, Wilson appears to have the momentary advantage because fears and concerns about violent crime appear to be paramount in the minds of most Californians right now, said Prof. Bruce Cain of UC Berkeley.

“If the focus is on crime, then Wilson couldn’t ask for anything better,” said Cain.

The Republican chief executive and former Marine has a long record of being “tough on crime,” is an avid supporter of the death penalty and now is promoting life prison terms for rapists and child molesters on their first offense. The Times’ exit poll indicated that crime is a salient issue with Democrats as well as Republicans, and Brown is weak among those voters who regard crime as the major issue.

Because registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California, the crime issue offers Wilson one of his best opportunities to chip away at Brown’s natural base.

Reilly said the Brown campaign will not shy away from the crime issue, though Brown was criticized during the primary for her personal opposition to capital punishment. Her views are irrelevant, she has said, because she can be just as diligent as Wilson in enforcing the state law imposing death for certain crimes.

Reilly said, “We feel that Pete Wilson is chief law enforcement officer of the state and each time that he raises the crime issue in this election, he’s only reminding voters that it is under his watch that all these crime problems are occurring.”

Berkeley’s Cain said such a tactic might work, adding, “That’s why I don’t think this race is over by any means.”

The state of the California economy has been viewed as Brown’s strongest issue, along with education. She has battered Wilson on California job losses and made it her mission to create 1 million jobs.

Recent opinion polls and the exit poll Tuesday have shown, however, that Californians increasingly seem less fretful over the state of the economy relative to crime and the problems of illegal immigration, another issue that is a critical part of Wilson’s program.

Although people seem to feel better about the economy, they still are dubious about the direction the state is going, polls have suggested, and whatever recovery is under way is occurring slowly.

“The economy may well be back on people’s minds in September,” Cain said. “Kathleen Brown has to continue to push forward the economy as a critical issue.”

Another seasoned observer of the California political scene, Washington-based analyst William Schneider, said the battle for the swing voter will be made complex by the role of the Clinton White House in the contests for both governor and U.S. senator in California.

“For President Clinton, California is one of his better states, but Kathleen has to convince people that conditions are rotten and there is a need for change. That is bad for Clinton.”

Conversely, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, running for a full six-year term, wants to get the image across that conditions in California have improved since Clinton became President and she joined the Senate in 1991.

“The role of Clinton is a big unknown,” Schneider said. “A lot of Democrats are running scared because of Clinton. It’s affecting everybody.”

Schneider said there are parallels between the California governor’s race and the situation in New Jersey in 1993 when Democratic Gov. Jim Florio was facing a challenge from a woman, Republican Christine Todd Whitman.

Much as with Brown this spring, Whitman was perceived as a hesitant campaigner who had failed to define herself. While Florio had been battered for the big tax increase early in his tenure--as was Wilson--many thought he had overcome that baggage. New Jersey’s economy was rebounding, and Florio became the favorite.

Whitman won.

“The smart money in Washington is on Wilson because people say he’s got the crime and immigration issues, which are very emotional,” Schneider said.

But he noted that the smart money had been on Florio, too.

In the end, Schneider suggested, Wilson and Brown might want to subliminally transmit a very basic, gut-level message to voters.

“They can’t do it openly, of course, but they can somehow suggest it between the lines,” he said.

For Brown, the message would be that California has had enough “boring old men as governors.”

For Wilson, the message is that California has two women senators, and, “Do you want a woman governor, too?”

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 5,234 voters, including 2,656 Democratic and 2,275 Republican primary voters as they exited 110 polling places across the state. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past primary elections. The survey was by confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when approached, actual returns and demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to slightly adjust the sample. Assisting The Times in this poll was Davis Market Research Services Inc. of Calabasas.

THE TIMES POLL: The Races for Governor and Senate

The Times exit poll of California primary voters Tuesday shows the demographic makeup of each party’s voters and how each group cast its votes in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

% of all % of all Democratic GOP voters voters who are: who are: SEX: 45 54 Male 55 46 Female ETHNICITY: 77 85 White 8 1 Black 9 5 Latino 4 5 Asian AGE: 9 9 18 to 29 40 40 30 to 49 28 28 50 to 64 23 23 65 and over EDUCATION: 24 20 High school graduate or less 27 29 Some college 49 51 College graduate HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 16 10 Less than $20,000 28 24 $20,000 to $39,999 25 24 $40,000 to $60,000 31 42 More than $60,000 POLITICAL IDEOLOGY: 34 5 Liberal 53 36 Moderate 13 59 Conservative SEXUAL ORIENTATION: 5 1 Gay or lesbian

AMONG DEMOCRATS

Each column shows the percentage of voters who voted for:

Brown Garamendi Hayden SEX: Male 43 37 15 Female 51 31 14 ETHNICITY: White 43 36 16 Black 79 16 3 Latino 57 31 6 Asian 45 38 12 AGE: 18 to 29 50 29 14 30 to 49 53 25 18 50 to 64 45 40 10 65 and over 40 43 12 EDUCATION: High school graduate or less 43 44 7 Some college 43 38 13 College graduate 52 27 18 HOUSEHOLD INCOME: Less than $20,000 46 35 13 $20,000 to $39,999 44 38 11 $40,000 to $60,000 47 35 14 More than $60,000 52 27 18 POLITICAL IDEOLOGY: Liberal 57 20 21 Moderate 45 39 11 Conservative 30 50 9 SEXUAL ORIENTATION: Gay or lesbian 52 14 31

AMONG REPUBLICANS

Each column shows the percentage of voters who voted for:

Wilson Unz Dann. Huffgtn. Squires Male 59 36 29 57 8 Female 65 32 24 56 15 ETHNICITY: White 62 34 28 57 11 Black na na na na na Latino 57 33 24 59 13 Asian 70 25 17 70 8 AGE: 18 to 29 52 42 25 58 9 30 to 49 53 42 29 51 15 50 to 64 65 32 27 55 13 65 and over 78 19 24 67 5 EDUCATION: High school graduate or less 66 31 24 60 11 Some college 63 32 24 59 11 College graduate 60 36 29 54 12 HOUSEHOLD INCOME: Less than $20,000 55 36 34 50 11 $20,000 to $39,999 66 29 25 57 11 $40,000 to $60,000 64 32 26 57 13 More than $60,000 60 37 27 57 11 POLITICAL IDEOLOGY: Liberal 57 37 9 62 24 Moderate 65 30 19 59 14 Conservative 60 37 33 55 9 SEXUAL ORIENTATION: Gay or lesbian na na na na na

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll. Percentages may not add up to 100% because results for some candidates and voter groups are not displayed.

NA=not available because the sample is too small.