Better, but Still Too Pipe-Dreamy : A struggling Wilson offers 22-month budget

California deserves more than politics as usual, even though it’s an election year. Sometimes a budget is not so much a budget as an opening negotiating statement--and that’s the case with the 1994-95 state budget offered by the governor’s office this week. That this is so is surely not surprising, but it is nonetheless disappointing.

At least there is some realism in this budget. For the first time Gov. Pete Wilson concedes that the federal government cannot be counted on to reimburse California for providing services to illegal immigrants. His predictable call for bigger cuts in health, welfare and higher education is coupled with the honest assumption of a deficit--$1 billion in a bridge-budget that spans 22 months. A few years ago, if you had mentioned this device to the governor, he’d have thrown you out of his office. But a stubborn recession will do strange things to people.

Alas, some of Wilson’s assumptions remain worrisome. For example, although he has reduced the figure for federal funds he is counting on to $763 million, the legislative analyst’s office calls the new figure still overly optimistic. It estimates federal outlays at only $400 million to $500 million. In fiscal 1995-96, Wilson is relying on a total of $2.5 billion in federal reimbursements. That’s one of the great political pipe dreams of all time. Two of Wilson’s proposed budget reductions (ending welfare and health services for legal immigrants who have sponsors) may well require changes in federal law --something that is beyond state control.

This budget would put new pressure on already besieged county governments. Wilson wants to shift millions of county health care dollars to the state. That would put even greater strain on Los Angeles and Orange counties. To balance the state’s books by raiding county funds for the poor or needy clearly would exacerbate local problems.

To finance the $1 billion in deficit spending, Wilson would use short-term borrowing that would have to be repaid out of general funds by 1996. This plan was based on numbers that included what the Wilson Administration admits was a $2.7-billion accounting error. The error casts doubt on the state’s ability to pay its bills under the plan Wilson proposes. Certainly the bond rating agencies on Wall Street are watching all this closely.

Wilson probably would say to his critics: “You try to balance this budget.” The Legislature by June 30 will want to restore some of the cut funds or modify the cutbacks, and determine whether it might be necessary to roll over more debt to ride out this bad economic patch in the state’s history. Indeed, Wilson, wise to the ways of the state Legislature, is no doubt expecting just that.