California’s Welfare-to-Work Program Shows Success : Benefits: Large number of recipients are found employed, offering savings to government. Still, many cannot find jobs and are unemployed after 2 years.

In findings that are expected to help shape reform of the nation’s welfare system, new research in California released today shows that large-scale welfare-to-work programs can move a substantial number of recipients into the work force and provide savings to government.

Yet the same examination demonstrates that, even with the most successful jobs program, not all recipients would find work and a significant number still would be unemployed after two years, the welfare time limit being proposed by President Clinton.

Concluding three years of study on California’s welfare-to-work program, called Greater Avenues for Independence, a national research organization found that while the success of the program varied widely among counties, overall the results were positive, particularly for a program that attempted to serve the nation’s largest welfare population.

California Health and Welfare Secretary Sandra Smoley said that the study of the program, commonly called GAIN, was “the most exhaustive evaluation of this type that there’s been,” noting that the result likely will have nationwide impact as Congress weighs Clinton’s welfare proposals and state legislatures consider various other reform options.

For those proposing time limits on welfare, for example, the California study shows that welfare-to-work programs can move substantial number of recipients into private sector jobs within two years.

In contrast, however, the study also demonstrates that at the end of two years a large number of recipients still will need some form of government help to support their families.

“There are two key findings,” said Mark Greenberg, an attorney for the Washington-based Center for Law and Social Policy. “The first is that a well run welfare employment program can raise the employment rates and earnings of affected families. The second is that even the best welfare employment program does not end the need for welfare.”

The study, scheduled to be released today in New York, was conducted by the nonprofit Manpower Development Research Corp. under contract with the California Department of Social Services. The findings were based on an examination of 33,000 recipients in six counties--Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Alameda, Tulare and Butte.

GAIN, which serves 191,000 poor families, is a statewide program designed in the mid-1980s to help the mostly single mothers who receive Aid to Families With Dependent Children get jobs through education, training and help in job finding.

Researchers measured GAIN’s impact in each county by comparing earnings and employment records of a group enrolled in the program with those of another group which was not.

As in earlier studies, the researchers said that the Riverside program produced “the most impressive results ever found for a large-scale welfare-to-work-program.” Over the three-year period, the study found that single mothers with school-age children who participated in the Riverside GAIN program earned 49% more and collected 15% less in welfare than those who did not.

The averages for all six counties combined was much lower than Riverside County but still showed positive results. During the three-year period, the average recipient in the program earned 22% more and collected 6% less in welfare payments than those who were not in the program.

The Riverside program placed its greatest emphasis on moving recipients into jobs quickly. Other programs, like those in Alameda and Los Angeles counties, placed more emphasis on education and training.

Alameda County, which targeted a more difficult population of long-term inner-city welfare recipients, showed that it took several years for its education-oriented program to produce strong results. In the third year of its program, however, it demonstrated a marked increase in both earnings and employment.

The Los Angeles program, which also focuses on long-term recipients, showed only modest earnings by recipients, although it did produce small savings for government. “Los Angeles demonstrates the challenge of working with an inner-city population where poverty is concentrated, where transportation to labor opportunities is limited and where a substantial portion of the state’s welfare population is located,” said John Wallace, a Manpower Development vice president and regional director.

The study attempted for the first time to measure the cost benefit of GAIN to government with mixed results. Here, too, Riverside County scored high, showing that for every dollar spent it produced $2.84 in savings. Overall for all six counties, however, the return was a more modest 76 cents on the dollar.

And despite the high number of GAIN recipients who moved into jobs, the study showed that the program only moved a small percentage--3%--entirely off welfare.