Forecast for Orange County Bright, Report Says : Economy: In sharp contrast to L.A. County, study sees rapid growth in jobs, retail and home sales.

Bolstered by a strong export market for its high-technology and medical products, Orange County’s economy is growing far more rapidly this year than expected, according to a report released Thursday by Chapman University in Orange.

In fact, university economists said, they expect the county to end 1994 well into a recovery from the lingering recession that began in 1990.

Encouraged by revised employment data and higher-than-expected levels of consumer and business spending, Orange County employers will add 10,000 jobs to their payrolls this year, predicted James Doti, the university’s president and chief economic forecaster. He also said taxable retail sales and housing sales--both strong indicators of consumer confidence--will show appreciable growth.

By contrast, Los Angeles County employers are expected to slash almost 30,000 jobs from their payrolls this year, Chapman economist Esmael Adibi said. A key difference between the two regional economies is that Los Angeles County is far more dependent on aerospace and defense employment, which has plunged in recent years.

The construction industry in Los Angeles County is not likely to enjoy a “mini boom” like the one that seems to be starting in Orange County, according to Adibi. Average home prices in Los Angeles County should decline 3.3%, for the fourth annual decrease in a row.

However, the report also notes that personal income in Los Angeles County is expected to grow by 3% in 1994, while retail sales should also grow slightly, with new-car sales leading the way.

The Chapman Center for Economic Research is predicting a 17.8% increase for Orange County in building permit values this year, to $1.9 billion from $1.6 billion. The entire increase, Doti said, will come from increased home building.

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Pent-up demand for housing after the minimal construction activity of the recession, he predicted, will nearly double housing production to about 13,000 units a year through the end of the decade.

Adibi said he expects about 9,800 jobs to be added this year in the Inland Empire, where locally based employment remained constant during the recession. But construction in Riverside and San Bernardino counties will remain weak throughout 1994, he predicted, and home prices are likely to drop 2.5% following a 4.6% average decline last year.

Except for its emphasis on improvement in the Orange County economy, the Chapman midyear report is quite similar to a statewide study issued earlier this week by the UCLA Business Forecasting Project.

In both reports, economists said California’s economic recovery is under way but being held back by interest rate increases and continuing layoffs in aerospace.

Chapman’s Doti, however, disagrees with UCLA forecasters, who maintain that income losses caused by January’s Northridge earthquake are holding back growth.

There have been income losses, Doti said, “but the spending that will result from the rebuilding effort will make up for them.