The Nation : A Check List for the President if He Wants to Have a Prayer in ’96

It’s time for President Bill Clinton to make a “To Do” list. You know, the kind you make when time is getting short and you have to decide what you absolutely, positively have to get done before it’s too late. In Clinton’s case, the looming deadline is the 1996 presidential campaign, set to begin about a year from now. One likely challenger, Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), is already lining up a campaign team.

What is it Clinton absolutely, positively has to accomplish to set himself up for reelection in 1996? Five things.

1. See the country through a crisis.

This is a tough one. It’s kind of hard to manufacture a world crisis. Moreover, everything Clinton has done so far suggests that he wants to avoid an international crisis at all costs. That can be good foreign policy. But it may not be good politics for a young, untested President.

During the Cold War, the Soviets made sure every new President faced a test. They needed to see how far they could push him. They tested John F. Kennedy, another young Democratic President, in the Cuban missile crisis. He passed with flying colors. Earlier than that, Kennedy devised a test of his own--the Bay of Pigs invasion--three months into his presidency. It was a humiliating failure. But it didn’t do Kennedy a bit of harm. He handled the defeat with such style and grace that Americans were reassured of the new President’s judgment in a crisis.

That’s Clinton’s problem. The public is not reassured of his judgment in a crisis. He hasn’t had one. He has done everything possible to avoid confrontations in Haiti and North Korea. In Clinton’s case, that’s not necessarily reassuring. Ronald Reagan was the President who had to reassure people he wouldn’t start a war.

Clinton’s problem is the opposite. He has to reassure people he can be tough. And here’s a clue, Mr. President: If you want to relieve doubts about your toughness, sending Jimmy Carter doesn’t help.

2. Keep the recovery going.

Clinton has already signaled his commitment on this score by not complaining about the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to hike interest rates. Sure, that slows the economy down. But it also lowers the risk of an inflation crisis, almost certainly followed by another recession in late 1995 or 1996--the worst possible time for Clinton. Clinton is making a deliberate choice. He is willing to slow the recovery down in order to stretch it out.

Clinton has got to remember one thing: A Democrat who allows a recession is a dead Democrat. After all, there’s no other reason to elect a Democrat except “The economy, stupid.” Clinton can’t allow that slogan to be used against him in 1996.

3. Be in a position to argue that you have kept your pledge on health care.

Republicans are out to get Clinton on this. George Bush paid a heavy price when he abandoned his “Read my lips: No new taxes” pledge. And no one was angrier than his fellow Republicans.

Now the Republicans want revenge. They want to force Clinton to abandon his pledge to veto any health-care legislation that does not guarantee universal coverage. “Nyah, nyah, nyah,” they want to say. “Clinton betrayed the Democrats just like Bush betrayed the Republicans.”

If the President accepts universal coverage as a “goal” or a “commitment” rather than an absolute guarantee, the debate will escalate to a higher level of childishness. “Did so break your promise,” the Republicans would charge. “Did not,” the Democrats would reply. “Did so!” “Did not!”

Health care is a high-stakes poker game. Each side is trying to get the other to fold first and accept a compromise. Last week, Clinton abandoned his compromise posture and told the Business Roundtable, “I refuse to declare defeat. Why should we jump in the tank?”

The President may try to put together a narrow Democratic majority on health care, just as he did on the budget bill last year. But even if Clinton ekes out another 51-vote triumph, Dole keeps threatening to play the filibuster card.

Do the Republicans dare filibuster health-care reform? The White House seems willing to call their bluff on the theory that the voters would never stand for it. Or would they? The political risk of a filibuster depends on how people feel about the issue. A filibuster is good if it stops something bad (the economic-stimulus bill). It’s bad if it stops something good (the Brady bill).

In this poker game, the Democrats have better cards (more votes and more “face cards,” i.e., powerful committee chairmen). The Republicans may have the advantage on backing--a majority of Americans now say they oppose the Clinton health-care plan. The Republicans--especially Dole and House Minority Leader Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.)--have more nerve. But Clinton is a shrewd country boy and, like any good poker player, he likes to live on the edge.

4. Deliver on your promise of a middle-class tax cut.

The voters haven’t forgotten that Clinton promised them a tax cut in 1992. Instead, Clinton gave them a tax hike. True, the tax hike didn’t affect the middle class much--just a few cents more per gallon in gasoline taxes. But the voters were offended by the idea that Clinton had reversed himself.

Clinton dares not face the voters again without delivering on his promise. The good news is, it won’t be hard to do. In fact, it will be easy if, as expected, the GOP makes gains in Congress this fall. Republicans have never met a tax cut they didn’t like. They may try to outbid Clinton, but in the end, whatever tax cut the President signs will be his. Moreover, if the economy begins to slow down, a tax cut may make good economic sense. Then Clinton can say he delivered on his stimulus package.

But there’s one big risk Clinton faces in the election this year, and it’s the last item on his “To Do” list.

5. Don’t let the GOP come out of the midterm with a mandate.

No one will be surprised if the GOP makes gains this fall. Everyone expects this. A more Republican Congress would pull Clinton toward the center. Whenever Clinton drifts too far to the left, he gets in trouble. His best bet is to run for reelection from the center, on issues like crime, welfare reform and a tax cut.

But the GOP gains cannot be so big that they give the Republicans effective control of Congress. That would happen if the Republicans win a majority in the Senate and pick up as many as 30 House seats--possible at this point, but not likely. If that happened, Republicans would claim their own mandate to govern from Congress. They would start passing their own program. Clinton would be left with the same unhappy choice as Bush--capitulate or veto.

So there’s the President’s “To Do” list. He’d better not do what most people do--make a list, put it aside and forget about it. The President’s best bet may be to put it on the refrigerator, where he’ll see it all the time.