NEWS ANALYSIS : U.S. Policy Shift a Warning to Haitian Rulers, Refugees

President Clinton’s two latest decisions on Haiti--diverting the flood of refugees to Panama and sending a landing force of 2,000 Marines into the Caribbean--were designed to prevent the Haitian crisis from spinning out of control and to send a message to Haiti’s military rulers that American patience is running out, senior officials said Tuesday.

Clinton’s shift on refugees, who have come pouring out of Haiti in hopes of a chance at entering the United States, was intended to stop the exodus and give the President more time before he must decide whether to invade the island nation and topple its military rulers.

But the deployment of the Marines and the Administration’s increasingly open talk of a possible invasion reflect the view of senior officials that Clinton’s patience with the impasse in Haiti is gradually running out.

“We do not have a magic date--but we all have a sense of considerably increased urgency,” one official said.

A prominent Democrat who has discussed the crisis with White House officials observed: “I think they want to get this over with. They don’t want to see this go on past Labor Day.”

For almost two months, Clinton has been trying to persuade the Haitian regime--through a combination of economic sanctions and political threats--to give up power. Instead, thousands of Haitians have responded to a promise of humane treatment by U.S. immigration authorities by setting out in small boats--and have swamped the facilities set up to shelter them.

Clinton’s decision to send refugees to a new “safe haven” in Panama, if it dissuades Haitians from setting off in hopes of reaching the United States, will ease the pressure on the Administration to act quickly.

And the decision to deploy a four-ship amphibious assault group with 2,000 Marines also was intended to strengthen the chances of a peaceful resolution to the crisis, officials said.

“We are using all the pressure points we have, and this is another pressure point,” one White House official said.

Officials insisted the decision to move in the Marines stemmed from military officials’ warnings that they needed more troops in place to evacuate the estimated 3,000 Americans in Haiti if they come under attack.

A Clinton aide, at one White House meeting, described Haiti as “like a bottle of soda that’s being shaken: There’s a lot of pressure building up, and when it blows, it could go in all directions.”

But officials said deploying the force also will help reinforce barely veiled threats of military action against the officers who overthrew Haiti’s elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, in 1991.

U.S. Embassy officials in Haiti had reported to Washington that the military leader, Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, suspected Clinton was merely bluffing when he hinted that a U.S. invasion was possible.

The deployment of the Marines puts in place, for the first time, a U.S. force clearly capable of seizing Port-au-Prince and toppling the military regime--”and we hope they notice that,” one senior official said.

At the same time, the Administration has gradually put in place the other elements needed for an invasion, including pledges from other countries to contribute troops for a U.N. peacekeeping force that would take over from the Marines.

In effect, Clinton appears to be engaged with Cedras in a form of Caribbean brinkmanship: Which commander in chief will blink first?

Officials insist that Clinton has made no decision to invade and does not intend to use the presence of U.S. citizens as an excuse.

Still, Clinton’s special ambassador for Haiti policy, William H. Gray III, has begun raising the issue of protecting American lives at every public appearance. “We believe that there is an increasing deterioration (in Haiti), and that potentially poses a threat to the safety of Americans,” Gray told reporters Tuesday.

The State Department last month advised all Americans to leave Haiti. State Department officials said there has been no discernible increase in the dangers since then.

Nevertheless, Gray’s sudden emphasis on protecting the safety of U.S. citizens could make the Marine force the diplomatic equivalent of a loaded pistol on the table.

If anyone in Haiti does begin attacking U.S. citizens, one official noted, Gray has now proclaimed “the responsibility of an American President to protect American lives” as a cornerstone of Administration policy in Haiti.