U.S. Warns Haitian Junta to Leave by Year’s End : Caribbean: Key Administration aide specifies surprisingly distant date, says invasion is one option.

Groping for a message that would impress Haiti’s military leaders without frightening Congress and the American public, the Clinton Administration warned Wednesday that unless the Caribbean nation’s rulers step aside before the year’s end, the United States will force them out, possibly by an invasion.

“We don’t expect the military regime to be there six months from now,” said William H. Gray III, President Clinton’s special envoy to Haiti. If the military rulers don’t take the hint, he added, “there are other options that are open and . . . the military option is just one of those.”

Gray’s comments, as he made the rounds of morning television programs, added a specific--and surprisingly distant--target date for restoring democracy to Haiti. A day earlier, Gray had said only that an invasion is not “imminent,” which he said meant it is not “going to happen in a few days.”

Interviewed on ABC television, Gray said the Administration believes economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure will force Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, the Haitian strongman, and his associates out of Haiti without U.S. military action. Other officials said an invasion could come much sooner than the year’s end, if it becomes clear that peaceful methods will not work.

On Tuesday, the Administration announced an abrupt change in its refugee policy, effectively denying political asylum in the United States to any Haitians who attempt to flee by boat. At the same time, the U.S. government vowed to redouble its efforts to topple the oppressive Cedras government to allow Haitians to remain at home safely.

On Wednesday, Gray sought to balance the message, making it tough enough to force Cedras and his backers to take it seriously without setting off invasion jitters in the United States.

There were signs that he was in trouble on both counts.

News agency reports from the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, said the military was disdainful of the latest U.S. maneuver. But on Capitol Hill, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) complained that the Administration was preparing “an invasion in search of a rationale.”

“We do not know if a political solution is possible in Haiti because the Clinton Administration refuses to explore possible solutions,” Dole said. “The Administration has chosen the unfortunate course of beating the war drums, continuing to search for a public reason to invade Haiti.”

The latest shift in Administration policy was driven by a surge of Haitian refugees hoping to win asylum in the United States. Under the new procedure, Haitians picked up at sea will be eligible for havens in Panama and other countries but will not be admitted to the United States.

But Administration officials were still arguing with each other--and with the United Nations and refugee-aid groups--over exactly what the new policy means.

At issue is whether all Haitians who flee the island nation in boats will be granted “safe haven” in Panama, or must pass U.S. screening before being admitted to the new refuge.

Under international law, a refugee can obtain political asylum only if the host country determines that the individual has a “well-founded fear of persecution” at home. But the rules on “safe haven” are far looser: Anyone who feels threatened enough at home to escape is welcome and there is no provision for judging whether the fear is well-founded or not.

As far as the Administration is concerned, however, some form of screening may be imposed.

“There’s a difference of opinion within the Administration and within the refugee community on that,” a U.S. official said. “We haven’t come to closure on it. The choices range from (requiring) simply an affirmative ‘I want to go to Panama,’ to having screening where people would have to say at least: ‘I have some sort of fear.’ ”

Some Administration officials worry that, without some form of screening, the new refuges will quickly be overburdened.

State Department spokeswoman Christine Shelly said the Coast Guard picked up about 2,900 Haitians in 46 boats Tuesday, bringing the total number of Haitians picked up since June 15 to almost 14,000. Coast Guard officials said the flow on Wednesday was undiminished.

Randall Robinson, executive director of the organization TransAfrica, which has monitored the situation in Haiti, said the Administration has no alternative to military intervention.

“By the end of July, at the current rate of refugee outflows from Haiti, we will have reached the 10,000 capacity in Panama,” he said.

Times staff writers Doyle McManus and David Lauter contributed to this report.