NEWS ANALYSIS : Arab-Israeli Talks Enter Decisive Phase

Peace talks in the Middle East are entering a potentially decisive phase, which, after half a century of wars declared and undeclared, could bring the Arab-Israeli conflict to an end--and possibly within a year.

Negotiations between Israel and its Arab neighbors are developing a momentum that is carrying them forward at a pace that people thought impossible but necessary following a long and bitter stalemate.

Still, immense problems loom before all the parties--Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestine Liberation Organization; painful compromises will be required to resolve the very tough issues at the core of the conflict.

Yet all the parties are gingerly approaching those issues with a new eagerness for peace and an apparent willingness to strike the high-stakes bargains required.

They realize, for example, they are not only ending the long state of war between Israel and its Arab neighbors but replacing it with collective security arrangements under which the region’s moderate nations will protect each other from extremist threats.

A peace treaty of this type between Israel and Jordan is rapidly taking shape.

Although Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Jordan’s King Hussein are not expected to sign such an accord when they meet in Washington later this month, Israeli officials say an agreement could be reached in weeks on the two countries’ borders, sharing of water resources and other issues.

Israel and the PLO are working to broaden the self-government accord they signed last September by giving the new Palestinian Authority enhanced powers throughout the occupied West Bank, pulling back Israeli troops in the region and planning for the Palestinians’ first national elections.

And Israel and Syria are probing each other’s positions on Israel’s withdrawal from the Golan Heights, security guarantees and the nature of their future relations with hints of compromise. Both hope for a breakthrough in their long-stalled talks when Secretary of State Warren Christopher visits the region next week, and Egyptian officials this week predicted a basic Syrian-Israeli pact within a year.

All this movement stems, first, from the dramatic breakthrough in secret talks last summer between Israel and the PLO. The willingness of Israel and the Palestinians to share land over which they had fought for a century released Israel’s other Arab neighbors to make their own peace with the Jewish state.

Jordan and Syria also fear they will be left behind as Israel and the PLO push ahead. Hussein wants the stability of a peace treaty with Israel as a Palestinian state emerges on the West Bank and Muslim fundamentalists challenge his rule. Syrian President Hafez Assad, who saw himself as the architect of the future Middle East, felt himself being marginalized.

A final element is real concern that the “window of opportunity,” opened two years ago with Rabin’s election with a commitment to negotiations and compromise, could close--and the chance for peace be lost--if a comprehensive peace is not achieved before the next Israeli elections.

Rabin wants to turn those elections, due by June, 1996, into a referendum on agreements he has reached and to get a mandate for the final phase in the negotiations with the PLO--talks that will decide the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, the future of Jerusalem and the return of hundreds of thousands of exiled Palestinians.

A comprehensive peace settlement that would, for the first time, put Israel at peace with its immediate Arab neighbors would likely turn the election into a landslide for Rabin, his Labor Party and its leftist allies.

But should Rabin and his Labor Party lose the election, a right-wing coalition led by the Likud Party, which opposes the Palestinian accord and withdrawal from the Golan Heights, would quickly break off negotiations.

Thus, the political imperative not only for Rabin but for Arab leaders is to strike far-reaching agreements over the next year and certainly before Israel’s serious pre-election politicking begins in late 1995, with a leader and political party whose future depends on them.

Among the leaders themselves--Rabin, Assad, Hussein and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat--there is a strong desire to bring peace to the region and shape its future before their generation passes from the scene.

Key moves were made in the past week by Israel and its Arab partners.

In a televised, hourlong speech to the Jordanian Parliament last weekend, Hussein told his nation that, after years of secret meetings with Israeli leaders, he was ready to meet Rabin openly and soon to advance peace prospects.

A third of Jordan’s lawmakers are Muslim fundamentalists or leftists opposed to the peace process; the monarch’s announcement was a bold signal he is determined to proceed, moving ahead of other Arab countries. “Jordan has decided to act primarily according to its own national interest,” Hussein declared, stressing its need for political stability and economic growth.

Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres responded with important commitments, including recognition of Jordan’s sovereignty and the legitimacy of the Hashemite dynasty there and acceptance of its role as a protector of Islamic shrines in Jerusalem.

With that, Hussein wrote President Clinton he was prepared to move up a meeting with Rabin from the autumn to July 25. Hussein also made clear in his letter that his move was contingent on increased U.S. aid--modernization of Jordan’s army and air forces and forgiveness of about $700 million Jordan owes the United States.

On Friday, a team of Israeli officials completed arrangements for a formal visit by Peres to Jordan as part of the accelerated negotiations to conclude a peace treaty.

In Damascus, meanwhile, Syrian officials expressed their hope that Christopher can break the prolonged deadlock in talks with Israel during his forthcoming trip. Assad was ready, Syria’s state-controlled press said, to discuss future relations with Israel once it declared its readiness to withdraw from the Golan Heights.

Peres responded with a major shift in Israel’s negotiating position. “We have recognized Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights, time after time,” he said.

He implied an Israeli willingness to withdraw to the international border in return for “full peace” if security arrangements and other issues could be agreed upon. Until now, Rabin had only said Israel would pull back on the Golan Heights but had refused to specify the line of withdrawal.

Israeli officials said Friday that the coming Christopher shuttle would test Syria’s sincerity and the forthcoming meeting between Rabin and Hussein will put pressure on Assad to move ahead--or simply be left behind.