U.S. Optimistic Syria Will Join Peace Plan : Mideast: Christopher embarks on trip, will meet Assad. No breakthrough expected this week.

As Secretary of State Warren Christopher left Washington for the Middle East, U.S. officials expressed optimism Sunday that the momentum created by last week’s Jordan-Israel breakthrough will help bring Syria into a comprehensive peace settlement by the end of the year.

During a 35-minute conversation between President Clinton and Syrian President Hafez Assad on Friday, the Syrian leader indicated that he is still committed to the peace process. He also said he would not stand in the way of Friday’s decision by King Hussein of Jordan to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in Washington on July 25.

“Assad made clear that as far as he is concerned, he is focused on what he is doing with us and the Israelis,” a senior Administration official traveling with Christopher said. Of the breakthrough with Jordan, “He as much as said, ‘That’s King Hussein’s business.’ He said it wasn’t a problem.”

In the past, Syria has often either played spoiler in peace efforts from which Damascus was excluded or punished the parties who participated. During a mid-1980s peace effort, the Assad government was blamed for the assassinations of Jordanian diplomats.

“As long as he feels there is a chance of movement, he is committed to peace and to not spoiling the process pursued by others,” the official said.

In a July 4 letter to Clinton in honor of American independence, Assad also took the unusual step of reaffirming his commitment to peace, Administration sources said.

But U.S. officials conceded that Christopher is unlikely to make any serious progress in negotiations between Syria and Israel during his weeklong trip. Talks with Assad are instead likely to be hand-holding exercises underscoring the U.S. commitment to a comprehensive peace in which Syria is a cornerstone.

“I think he’s going to want more reassurance that he’s not going to be isolated,” the official said.

After the announcement Friday, a senior U.S. analyst had expressed concern that Assad would, at minimum, “go off in a corner and pout. He’s likely to feel he’s been ganged up on.” Analysts feared he might try to slow down the process.

Yet since Friday, Syria’s normally outspoken, state-controlled press has been unusually silent on the Jordanian breakthrough. It reported the news of the scheduled meeting between Hussein and Rabin without comment.

U.S. officials also said they have not detected any movement of surrogate forces in Syrian-controlled regions of Lebanon, the traditional battleground between Israel and Syria.

During Christopher’s sixth Mideast shuttle, international attention is likely to focus primarily on talks among U.S., Israeli and Jordanian foreign ministers on Wednesday. But U.S. officials said Israel is also still tightly focused on Syria.

“The Israelis are ready to do serious business. They understand that without Assad they can’t assume what they have now with the Palestinians and Jordan is not irreversible,” the official said.

The problem, he added, is that the gap between the Syrian and Israeli positions on a land-for-peace swap centered on the strategic Golan Heights is still wide. And the danger is that the Jordan track will move even further ahead of Syria.

“If Assad comes to believe there will be no progress on his track, then the risk of him playing spoiler goes up dramatically,” the official added.

But Christopher is not bringing with him any package of incentives to ensure Assad’s cooperation or to encourage a Syria-Israel breakthrough. U.S. officials said they thought awareness that Syria stands to be left behind should serve as sufficient incentive.