UCI Poll Sees Trouble for Wilson, Huffington : Politics: Governor, Senate candidates below margins needed in O.C. to offset Democrat edge in state. Support strong for immigrant, crime measures.

Even though they are leading in Orange County, Gov. Pete Wilson and Republican U.S. Senate nominee Mike Huffington face “an uphill fight” here, with voter support below the 2-to-1 ratios they would need on Election Day to offset Democratic strongholds elsewhere in the state, according to UC Irvine poll results released Wednesday.

The poll showed that Wilson, with 50% support, has failed to increase his popularity in this Republican-rich county since the June primary, and that he and his Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Kathleen Brown, have only “tepid support” from local voters.

For Wilson, the only good news in the poll is that he is leading Brown in Orange County by 18 points among all registered voters (22 points among likely voters).

Huffington, meanwhile, is running below the 52% GOP voter registration in Orange County, according to the poll conducted by Mark Baldassare, chairman of urban and regional planning at the UCI School of Social Ecology, and research associate Cheryl Katz.

The poll showed Huffington, the Santa Barbara congressman, with 49% support, compared to 36% for incumbent U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, and 11% undecided.

“This is good news for Feinstein, who very well may have enough momentum statewide to get reelected if Huffington receives less than the majority vote in Orange County,” Baldassare said.

Demonstrating that voters this year are more focused on issues than on the candidates or political parties, the poll also showed that both Democrats and Republicans enthusiastically support two initiatives on the Nov. 8 general election dealing with crime and immigration.

Proposition 184, the “three strikes” sentencing law for convicted felons, was backed by 84% of the voters. Proposition 187, which would deny public services, such as education and non-emergency health care, to illegal immigrants received a 65% approval rating. Support for Proposition 187 dropped to 54% among Democrats.

The telephone poll of 812 registered voters was conducted from Aug. 19 to Aug. 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. The poll, part of UCI’s 1994 Orange County Annual Survey, was touted as a “special report” on the upcoming November election.

Baldassare said he was somewhat surprised by Wilson’s showing in the poll because he expected that the governor would have recovered his standing by now after giving up 43% of the Orange County Republican vote to political neophyte Ron Unz in the primary.

Instead, he said, Wilson is no better off now than he was at this same point in the 1990 campaign, and the governor will have to work hard to get the large vote margin that he needs in Orange County to offset Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

“This tells me he has an uphill fight in Orange County,” Baldassare said.

One out of every five Democrats said they would vote for Wilson, while 13% of the Republicans said they would support Brown. Independents were evenly divided between the two candidates.

In the Huffington-Feinstein race, each candidate lost one out of every five voters to the opposite party, with independents also equally divided between both camps.

Unlike previous years, independent voters can no longer be expected to vote Republican because they are becoming more issues-oriented, Baldassare said.

“We can partly thank (1992 independent presidential candidate) Ross Perot for those trends. He freed up independents and a certain number of voters to view both parties with greater skepticism,” the pollster said.

“I don’t think there’s a lot of enthusiasm for either gubernatorial candidate in Orange County,” Baldassare concluded. “That means the outcome of this election may very well come down to how the candidates deal with the voters’ top concerns--crime and illegal immigration.”

Based on that barometer, the Wilson campaign claims an advantage over Brown because of her personal objection to the death penalty--which she has vowed to carry out if elected governor--and her opposition to Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigration measure, on the Nov. 8 ballot.

“The battleground is slowly shifting for the independent voters and swing voters,” said Dan Schnur, the Wilson campaign spokesman. “The more they learn about the two records, the more they are going to support Pete Wilson. She can pretend she’s just as tough as Pete Wilson on both of those issues, but when push comes to shove and the dust is cleared, she’s (former Gov.) Jerry Brown’s sister and she’s against the death penalty and she’s against SOS (the so-called ‘Save Our State’ initiative).”

Schnur downplayed the UCI poll results, adding that the Wilson campaign’s own numbers in Orange County show the governor with a slightly higher approval rating among “likely voters,” and with conservatives providing the foundation of the support.

But by its own action, the Wilson campaign has shown the importance of the Orange County vote in the upcoming election. During August alone, Wilson held four public events and two fund-raisers here, with his wife, Gayle, also making campaign appearances.

Asked why Wilson is having to fight for political territory that would normally be the Republican nominee’s stronghold, Schnur replied: “These are voters with very high expectations. It’s very difficult to penetrate the L.A. media market--and the Orange County media market in particular--from Sacramento.”

Brown’s campaign, meanwhile, was ecstatic over the UCI poll, even though it showed Brown with only 32% support.

“It’s great news for Kathleen Brown,” said John Whitehurst, her campaign spokesman. “We are already farther ahead than Feinstein was in 1990.” In the 1990 gubernatorial election, Feinstein took 31% of the Orange County vote while Wilson racked up 63%.

“Wilson does not have his base intact. His job rating continues to be in the toilet; he does not have the support of independents that he had in 1990,” Whitehurst said.

Pointing out that Wilson needs 64% support from Orange County voters to overcome the expected Democratic lead elsewhere, Whitehurst concluded: “These results show that Wilson is in deep trouble in Orange County and in deep trouble statewide.”

While crime and immigration continue to be the foremost issues among voters, Wilson’s embracement of those issues has not directly resulted in increased popularity, Whitehurst added.

Wilson’s Vote Margin

Republican Gov. Pete Wilson has a wide margin over Democrat Kathleen Brown in Orange County, but it may not be enough for him to offset a large Demcratic turnout elsewhere in the state.

* If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for: Wilson: 50% Brown: 32% Other: 6% Don’t know: 12% Source: 1994 Orange County Annual Survey, UCI

Wilson Facing Trouble?

Gov. Pete Wilson’s edge here may not be enough to cancel the traditional big Democratic majorities in Los Angeles and San Francisco counties. In the Senate race, Rep. Mike Huffington’s lead over incumbent Dianne Feinstein is somewhat smaller than Wilson’s over Democratic nominee Kathleen Brown. How the current races stand, as well as a look at how Orange County’s vote has figured in recent gubernatorial contests:

Wilson Brown Other Don’t know Likely voters 53% 31% 6% 10% Democrats 21% 64% 5% 10% Republicans 70% 13% 5% 12% Independents 32% 31% 19% 18%

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Previous Races

Year Orange County Statewide 1990 Pete Wilson (Rep.) 63% 49% Dianne Feinstein (Dem.) 31% 46% 1986 George Deukmejian (Rep.) 71% 61% Tom Bradley (Dem.) 26% 37% 1982 George Deukmejian (Rep.) 61% 49% Tom Bradley (Dem.) 36% 48% 1978 Jerry Brown (Dem.) 48% 56% Evelle Younger (Rep.) 43% 36% 1974 Jerry Brown (Dem.) 40% 50% Houston Flournoy (Rep.) 56% 44%

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If the election for U.S. senator were held today, would you vote for:

Huffington Feinstein Other Don’t know All O.C. voters 49% 36% 4% 11% Likely voters 52% 34% 4% 10% Democrats 21% 64% 5% 10% Republicans 68% 18% 3% 11% Independents 38% 38% 13% 11%

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PROPOSITIONS WIN BIG

Two controversial initiatives have widespread support in Orange County. A plurality of self-described liberals and two-thirds of middle-of-the-roaders back Proposition 187. Proposition 184 is a huge winner here:

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Proposition 187 would make illegal immigrants ineligible for public social services, public health care services (unless it’s an emergency, under federal law) and attendance at public schools, and require state and local agencies to report suspected illegal immigrants. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 187?

Yes No Don’t know All O.C. voters 65% 26% 9% Liberal 49% 44% 7% Middle-of-road 66% 24% 10% Conservative 73% 18% 9%

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Proposition 184 would increase sentences for convicted felons who have previous convictions for certain serious or violent felonies. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 184?

Yes No Don’t know All O.C. voters 84% 8% 8% Liberal 78% 14% 8% Middle-of-road 87% 6% 7% Conservative 87% 5% 8%

Sources: 1994 Orange County Annual Survey, UCI; Orange County Registrar of Voters