Second Thoughts About Conventional Wisdom : Contrary to the way the bets are shaping up, it is not Sybert but Beilenson whose record and agenda are most in tune with the voters of the 24th Congressional District.

The most confounded clatter in all of politics is the din of conventional wisdom. Imagine going to the track and finding there were no long shots, no exactas--everyone just walking in single file placing their bets on the favorite. That’s congressional politics today, especially in California. And nowhere is that more true than in the 24th District, which stretches across the west San Fernando Valley and into eastern Ventura County.

I wish I had a buck for every Republican strategist who looked at the district’s registration figures and mistakenly deduced that the incumbent is too liberal or that it should be represented by a Republican because the party enjoys a numerical edge.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 24th, 46.46% to 39.91%. That’s right, Democrats outnumber Republicans, but the Republicans have the edge. For many years the conventionally wise thought a district must be at least 55% Democratic to be “safe” for Democrats. That assumption makes Rep. Anthony Beilenson a sitting duck.

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On top of that, as many as 20% of the Democrats in some districts have not been loyal voters in recent years. Registered Democrats voted for Reagan and Bush when presented with Mondale and Dukakis. Bobbi Fiedler, a Republican, defeated Congressman Jim Corman for a “safe” Democratic seat when busing locally and Reagan nationally pushed Democrats into the Republican camp.

In the L.A. area, Beilenson and South Bay Democrat Jane Harman hold seats that are “marginal” and were once thought to be the exclusive domain of the Republicans.

The old rules don’t apply. The Reagan coalition is no more. The party is so fractured due to disagreement on critical issues like a woman’s right to choose abortion, banning assault weapons and the radical right’s intrusion into people’s private lives. Will Rogers once said that he was not a member of an organized political party--he was a Democrat. Today those words no doubt hit close to home for most Republican candidates.

This is the boat Beilenson’s opponent, Richard Sybert, finds himself in: a fractured party, a carpetbagger background (in Sacramento he was an aide to Gov. Pete Wilson) and positions hopelessly on the wrong side of, or neutralized on, the issues that are most important to the district’s voters.

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Had Sybert looked past the numbers in the 24th, he might have decided to run against the somnambulant Carlos Moorhead in his hometown of Pasadena.

Western Los Angeles County and eastern Ventura County are closer-knit than most places in the basin. Sybert offended his primary opponents and party when he set up shop and bought the primary with hundreds of thousands of his own dollars. His affiliation with Wilson’s bumbling and tax hike no doubt didn’t endear him to the more conservative wing of the party, which populates the Thousand Oaks/Westlake Village parts of the district.

Being a disciple of Wilson’s politics and buying a primary out without paying your dues don’t get you invitations to Sunday dinner. To win, Sybert must hold his 39.91% and cut into Beilenson’s 46.46%. He starts out in the hole because the local party may sit on its hands.

To make matters worse, he is going to lose a significant chunk of Republican women because of his position on abortion. This district is affluent and well-educated. By and large, women voters support a woman’s right to choose. Sybert makes enemies of the hard right by supporting abortion, then alienates mainstream women by endorsing restrictions vehemently opposed by most major women’s groups (and most women).

The 24th contains the open spaces of Malibu and Topanga stretching across the Santa Monica Mountains into eastern Ventura County. Sybert might hope to pick up some affluent Republican environmentalists (no, that’s not an oxymoron; I’ve met a few) except that Beilenson has delivered the funds for nearly every piece of open space acquired in the Santa Monica Mountains. Ouch. That 39.91% is getting slipperier and slipperier. And Sybert still hasn’t picked up any Democrats.

Finally, for the past 10 years, Beilenson has been in the forefront of the effort to stop illegal immigration. He is co-author of a constitutional amendment to deny citizenship to children born to illegals. This is crippling for a Republican, because on the issues, Sybert can’t chip away.

Conventional wisdom may have told him to run here in the 24th. A better strategy would have been to take the road less traveled and challenge Moorhead, an incumbent for whom term limits seem to have been designed.

At least Sybert wouldn’t need the Thomas Guide to find his way around the district.