SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CAREERS : WHERE THE JOBS ARE : Polarization of Job Market to Intensify, Experts Say
You can go to college or technical training school and make good money working as a nurse, a corporate manager or a computer programmer. Or you can struggle to finish high school and face the slim paycheck given to a hamburger flipper, a gardener or a janitor.
Sadly, there may not be much in between as the job market moves to extremes.
That is the sobering message from the experts who peer into the cloudy crystal ball of employment forecasting, trying to predict the world of work in the next century.
Today’s sharp divisions in America’s labor market will accelerate even more in coming years, as workers are increasingly channeled into a highly trained and well-paid class of professionals and technicians, or a growing army of service workers whose tasks are vital but who get low pay and scanty fringe benefits.
“There is a great hole in the middle, where there were semi-skilled manufacturing workers, and the generalist middle manager also is falling by the wayside,” said Ted Gibson, principal economist for the California Department of Finance.
The well-paid specialists and technicians will have the ample income, and the scarcity of time, to demand more services provided by the lesser-paid workers.
The world of 2005, according to federal and state forecasts, will be one in which people eat out more frequently (more jobs for cooks and food-preparation workers) and drink less (fewer jobs for bartenders); spend less time in bank lines (fewer tellers and more ATM machines); have their yards cared for (more gardeners) and houses decorated (more painters and paperhangers), and, when they fall ill, get more of their care at home (more home care aides and licensed practical nurses).
The best jobs--full-time, year-round, with health insurance, pensions and other benefits--will be reserved for the highly trained specialists. Even in the shrinking manufacturing sector, there will be 230,000 new jobs nationwide for specialists--engineers, scientists and computer systems experts.
California’s Employment Development Department, in its study of the labor market for the period 1990 to 2005, predicts the 10 largest growth categories will include such service jobs as retail sales clerks, office clerks, waiters-waitresses and cashiers, along with the higher-salaried general managers-executives and registered nurses.
The federal government also expects a huge surge in service jobs, with a sharp demarcation between the well-paid, highly trained workers and low-skilled legions.
“There is no question that both California and the nation have shown an acceleration in growth at opposite ends of the income distribution,” said Tom Lieser, an economist with the UCLA Business Forecasting Project.
Services are the hottest growth sector. Health care services “will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the economy, with employment increasing from 9.6 million to 13.8 million” by 2005, according to the 1994-95 edition of the U.S. Labor Department’s “Occupational Outlook Handbook.” Improved medical technology and a rapidly growing population of elderly Americans will accelerate the demand for health services.
Retail trade will show a healthy 23% expansion in employment throughout the nation and a booming growth rate of 33% in California. Restaurants, furniture stores and specialty shops are all expected to enjoy strong job gains.
At least 3 million business service jobs will be added nationally. This sector boasts one of the fastest-growing activities: computer and data-processing services. Personnel supply services, or temporary help agencies, will keep expanding at a rapid rate. And businesses will demand a wide range of consulting services, the EDD predicts.
“Many jobs that used to be inside now are contracted out,” said Thomas P. Nagle, EDD director. “Businesses buy the services as they need them. The way we do business in Corporate America has changed.”
The aristocrats of the service industries will be those whose education has brought them the best jobs, the Labor Department’s handbook promises.
“Continued expansion of the service-producing sector conjures up an image of a work force dominated by cashiers, retail sales workers and waiters,” the handbook says. “Although service-sector growth will generate millions of these jobs, it also will create jobs for financial managers, engineers, nurses, electrical and electronics technicians, and many other managerial, professional and technical workers. . . . The fastest-growing occupations will be those that require the most formal training.”
Forget about any revival of California’s well-paid manufacturing jobs that didn’t demand much educational background--this segment of industry has been declining for a long time. By 2005, the state will add 3 million jobs, with a scant 88,000 going to manufacturing.
Aerospace and defense activity in California will keep shrinking, with further losses in the companies involved in aircraft, guided missiles and space vehicles, and the electronics components industry will give up jobs too as “the manufacturing process becomes more automated and more firms move production overseas,” says the EDD’s official forecast. Government is also shrinking in relative share of the economy.
In 1975, manufacturing and government each accounted for 20% of all jobs in California. By 2005, their share will shrink to 14% each.
Times will continue to be tough for the displaced workers. “It isn’t likely that people who lose manufacturing jobs will gain new jobs in the upper-pay category,” said Ronald Kutscher, associate commissioner of labor statistics at the Labor Department. “There is a growing wage disparity between those who are highly educated and those who are uneducated,” said Kathy Masera, publisher of the California Job Journal, a weekly publication.
“This means living standards could deteriorate for many Americans,” she warned. Many families already need a second income to maintain the middle-class standard of living. If the main breadwinner is laid off from a well-paid manufacturing job, the family may never recover, she said.
As the world becomes even more insecure, future workers should be forewarned. “The focus for young people needs to be on education and an understanding of what their incomes will be without it,” she said.
U.S. Job Growth
Top 10 occupations with the largest projected job growth:
Number of Jobs* Jobs* Occupation 1992 2005 Gained Retail salespeople 3,660 4,446 786 Registered nurses 1,836 2,601 765 Cashiers 2,747 3,417 670 General office clerks 2,688 3,342 654 Truck drivers 2,391 3,039 648 Waiters, waitresses 1,756 2,394 637 Nursing aides, orderlies 1,309 1,903 594 Janitors, cleaners, maids 2,862 3,410 548 Food preparation workers 1,223 1,748 524 Systems analysts 455 956 501
U.S. Job Growth
Top 10 occupations with the fastest projected job growth:
Number of Jobs* Percentage Occupation 1992 2005 Growth Home health aides 347 827 138% Human service workers 189 445 136 Personal, home care aides 127 293 130 Computer engineers, scientists 211 447 112 Systems analysts 455 956 110 Physical therapy aides 61 118 93 Physical therapists 90 170 88 Paralegals 95 176 85 Special education teachers 358 625 74 Medical assistants 181 308 71
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
* Figures in thousands
California Job Growth
Top 10 occupations with the largest projected job growth:
Number of Jobs Jobs Occupation 1990 2005 Gained Retail salespeople 435,700 553,350 117,650 General office clerks 386,970 485,190 98,220 Waiters, waitresses 204,620 293,630 89,010 General managers, top execs 328,420 415,240 86,820 Cashiers 259,810 335,310 75,500 General secretaries 276,570 343,200 66,630 Food preparation and service 131,990 196,030 64,040 Receptionists 126,080 183,100 57,020 Registered nurses 166,400 222,430 56,030 Food preparation workers 144,720 198,540 53,820
Top 10 occupations with the fastest projected job growth:
Number of Jobs Percentage Occupation 1990 2005 Growth Data-processing equip. repairers 9,660 18,180 88.2% Physical therapists 8,490 15,370 81.0 Home health care workers 8,170 14,690 79.8 Athletes, coaches, umps 1,650 2,900 75.8 Human services workers 14,330 23,740 65.7 Food service managers 24,310 39,840 63.9 Occupational therapy assistants 720 1,170 62.5 Personal and home care aides 4,730 7,680 62.4 Physical therapy aides 7,220 11,660 61.5 Radiologic technologists 14,070 22,640 60.9
Source: California Employment Development Department
