CRISIS IN THE CARIBBEAN : Haitians Find Pact Perplexing : Reaction: Both supporters and opponents of military skeptical that army will leave power, let Aristide rule.

The agreement that is supposed to force Haiti’s junta from power here and restore exiled President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has left Haitian political and business leaders confused and uncertain that arriving U.S. forces really mean this nation is liberated from military rule.

“I think Clinton and Carter have been fooled,” said a member of one of Haiti’s oldest families, who heads a major drug manufacturing firm, referring to President Clinton and former President Jimmy Carter. “The generals have won.”

It was an odd assessment, given that it was made as the speaker and a reporter watched one U.S. Army helicopter after another land at the airport here to disgorge tons of equipment and the early detachments of what will eventually total 15,000 American soldiers.

But the opinion was hardly unique and not limited to opponents of the junta, whose members are often described by U.S. officials as “thugs in uniforms.”

“If the Haitians (in the military) manage this well,” said one businessman strongly opposed to Aristide, “they will be on top of Aristide, even if he does return and Cedras, Biamby and Francois are out.”

He was referring to Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, the Haitian strongman; Brig. Gen. Philippe Biamby, the army chief of staff; and Police Chief Col. Michel-Joseph Francois. They are the three leaders of the 1991 coup that overthrew Aristide.

Under the agreement negotiated Sunday with a team led by former President Carter, the three Haitian military leaders are to resign and give up power no later than Oct. 15. That agreement, which also guarantees Aristide’s return when the regime’s leaders leave, is backed by the American troops.

But many Haitians--accustomed to their army’s tactics, which have included deviousness and lying--fear that the Americans have been duped. They point to what they say are ambiguities and absences in the brief accord.

“First,” said one pro-Aristide political expert, “Cedras didn’t sign it. Next, four weeks is just too long. What happens if Cedras says he won’t go because no amnesty law is passed? Do you think the American troops will shoot him or arrest him? I don’t.”

Missing too from the accord, and from any discussion by American officials in Washington or by Lt. Gen. Hugh Shelton, the U.S. troop commander here, was the fate of the 7,000-member Haitian army.

The United States and Aristide previously had insisted on the separation of the Haitian police from the army; the reduction of the military to about 1,500 soldiers, who largely would be border guards and road builders; and the retraining of all the armed forces.

But Haitians briefed by the Carter mission and other U.S. officials said these American demands, if they ever were serious, were scuttled during Carter’s two days of talks so the negotiators could get Cedras and Biamby to accept the general accord.

The skepticism of many Haitians--interviewed in the aftermath of the dramatic Sunday night agreement--also showed a widespread lack of comprehension of the meaning of the U.S. troops now present here.

Most of them believe business in Haiti will go on as usual, that the Parliament will refuse to pass an amnesty law called for in the agreement, that Cedras will find some way to stay, that the anti-Aristide forces will keep the exiled president out.

“I think it will be just like the Harlan County and Governors Island,” said one professional who opposes the military. He was discussing a July, 1993, agreement, signed by Cedras, in which he promised to resign and leave the country by October, 1993, and permit Aristide’s restoration.

Cedras reneged on that agreement Oct. 11, 1993, when he organized an armed mob to prevent the landing of a U.S. military cargo ship, the Harlan County, and caused the collapse of the accord. “What’s to stop them from doing the same thing now?” asked the Haitian professional.

When it was pointed out that 15,000 U.S. troops would make the difference, he just shrugged.

A diplomat here observed: “It’s an amazing thing. (The Haitians) just don’t seem to be able to understand that this is a military occupation and that Shelton is the military governor. He may not do a good job, and that could mean being fooled by the military. But he may do a good job and that will mean the end of life as these people know it. But it will be the American officers who decide, not Haitians.”

According to Haitians who are close to the officers who are supposed to leave under the agreement, Cedras will depart Haiti, “probably no later than Sept. 30.” And, as a result of three years of leading what is widely regarded as one of the most corrupt regimes in the history of the region, “you know that Cedras has no financial worries,” said one Haitian businessman who knows the commanding general and his luxury-minded wife, Yannik.

“He loves Spain and he has a home already in Spain,” the businessman said. “Yannik would rather live there, and if Raoul thinks he might be president some day, he’s young and can come back after the Americans leave.”

As for Francois, whose resolve was largely responsible for the success of the 1991 anti-Aristide coup, “he will resign and take care of business,” said a close friend. That business, he said, will be the opening of a chain of target ranges specializing in pistol shooting.

Biamby might not go quite so gently, this source said, noting, “He is a coup man. He will resign but you can bet he won’t leave. He’ll just stay around and wait for the Americans to leave. He’ll try again.”

The Agreement

Text of the agreement signed Sunday in Port-au-Prince by former President Jimmy Carter and Haiti’s acting president, Emile Jonassaint.

1-The purpose of the agreement is to foster peace in Haiti, to avoid violence and bloodshed, to promote freedom and democracy, and to forge a sustained and mutually beneficial relationship between the governments, people and institutions of Haiti and the United States.

2-To implement this agreement, the Haitian military and police forces will work in close cooperation with the U.S. Military Mission. This cooperation, conducted with mutual respect, will last during the transitional period required for ensuring vital institutions of the country.

3-In order to personally contribute to the success of this agreement, certain military officers of the Haitian armed forces are willing to consent to an early and honorable retirement in accordance with U.N. Resolutions 917 and 940 when a general amnesty will be voted into law by the Haitian Parliament, or Oct. 15, 1994, whichever is earlier. The parties to this agreement pledge to work with the Haitian Parliament to expedite this action. Their successors will be named according to the Haitian constitution and existing military law.

4-The military activities of the U.S. Military Mission will be coordinated with the Haitian military high command.

5-The economic embargo and the economic sanctions will be lifted without delay in accordance with relevant U.N. resolutions and the need of the Haitian people will be met as quickly as possible.

6-The forthcoming legislative elections will be held in a free and democratic manner.

7-It is understood that the above agreement is conditioned on the approval of the civilian governments of the United States and Haiti.