Kohl’s Popularity Up, but Coalition Victory in Vote Far From Assured : Germany: Chancellor sells Christian Democrats as secure choice. Economy has improved. But sister parties may fall short in Oct. 16 election.

First, his wide forehead appears through the crowd; then his familiar jowls; suddenly, a smiling Chancellor Helmut Kohl bursts 6-foot-4 into the October night, extending a beefy hand to well-wishers.

On friendly turf in this town of conservative entrepreneurs, the chancellor crisscrosses the plaza before storming up to the podium on one of his final campaign swings before the Oct. 16 federal election.

“Secure Into the Future,” says an election poster behind him. Other posters bear no words at all, satisfied just to picture the beaming chancellor amid a throng of supporters: Kohl himself is the picture of security.

Or is he?

Chancellor for the last 12 years and seeking a fourth term, Kohl sells himself as the veteran statesman, the leader who helped reunify Germany and build the European Union. He asserts in a folksy baritone that he is the one who has steered Germany through its worst recession since World War II, the leader of a country at peace with its neighbors, the candidate of stability.

But his most urgent message on this Thursday night--and at a rare press conference Friday--is just a nitty-gritty appeal for votes: His ruling coalition might not have enough.

“We have no vote to give away. We need every vote to continue the politics of good sense, the politics of a coalition,” he said.

In fact, the 64-year-old Kohl has risen dramatically in popularity since the beginning of the year, when polls and pundits were forecasting his political finish over an ailing economy. Back then, they said the country was hungry for a change.

The economy has turned around in the last six months--on Friday, Kohl told reporters to expect 2.5% growth this year--and today there is no doubt that his Christian Democratic Party will again garner the most votes among a handful of parties, thanks largely to Kohl.

But the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, apparently do not have enough votes to govern alone, and their junior coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party, or FDP, could lose out altogether.

The FDP has failed to win legislative seats in the last six state elections. Now, several polls show that the FDP may not register the 5% of the federal vote needed to win seats in Parliament, which then elects the chancellor.

This week’s cover of the weekly magazine Der Spiegel carries a torn photograph with half of Kohl’s face and half of his challenger’s, Social Democratic Party leader Rudolf Scharping.

“FDP slides down: Kohl’s majority crumbles. A Change of Power After All?” asks the headline.

Various polls give Kohl a slight lead over Scharping, and the magazine predicts a tight race on election day.

So Kohl, the come-back chancellor, is pulling out the stops. He tells his crowds the choice is clear between his center-right Christian Democrat-FDP government or a leftist Social Democrat-Greens government that would have support from the reformed Communists of the former East Germany, the Party of Democratic Socialism. He then proceeds to demonize the other side.

In rally after rally, the old Cold Warrior launches into a tirade against the Social Democrats for having formed a government in the state of Saxony-Anhalt this summer with the tacit support of the former Communists. He takes credit for ridding Germany of Russian troops.

“The experiences of the fall of the Weimar Republic have taught us the lesson that there shall never be common ground with Nazis, neo-Nazis, Fascists and Communists of any kind,” Kohl said to his Limburg crowd.

“We have paid dearly in Germany, first with the Brown dictatorship and then after the division, with the Red dictatorship. . . . We have had enough of Communists in Germany,” he said.

On Friday, he warned that the country’s economy was at stake: A Social Democrat-led coalition would scare off international investors and ruin the country’s reputation as a reliable ally.

Social Democratic leader Scharping has denied that he plans to form a government with the former Communists. He also stopped his own free-fall in the polls recently with a late but impressive show of unity with more charismatic rivals in his own party.

Dubbed the “troika” by the European press, Scharping and his colleagues Oskar Lafontaine, the premier of Saarland state, and Gerhard Schroeder, premier of Lower Saxony, finally stopped bickering and began appearing together at campaign rallies to take on Kohl.

“Strong,” says the party’s new campaign posters showing the troika shoulder-to-shoulder.

But Scharping has an image problem among voters who find his toothy smile forced. In an election of personalities, he is seen as stiff compared to the down-home Kohl. Some Germans believe that the bright career politician and premier of Rhineland-Palatinate talks down to them.

“His face is too perfect,” said Torsten Roeder, 18, a student and undecided voter at the Kohl rally. Kohl, he said, seems to be “a capable man.”

The best thing Kohl seems to have going for him, however, is something he really didn’t do at all: the end of the recession. At the end of an economic cycle, unemployment had dropped to 3.5 million in September from a postwar high of 4.04 million in February.

Werner Fruehwirth, 45, who works in an optical factory, said he would be voting for Kohl because “I feel good. I have a job and can make quite a good living. And I think Kohl has done a good job with the unification.”

What about the cost of unification--about $300 billion to the West so far?

“It would have cost just as much with the other guys,” he said.

But Kohl isn’t taking any chances. He goes after the uncommitted with a litany of his good deeds and prods his own supporters to the polls.

“Don’t let anybody tell you that this election has already been decided,” he said. “Nothing has been decided yet.”