TIMES O.C. POLL : Prop. 187 Has Even Backers a Bit Uneasy : Although it still has substantial approval, 62% say they would not turn in an undocumented student--which initiative would require of some.

Deep within the epicenter of the Proposition 187 movement, there’s shuddering among supporters who feel uneasy about the measure’s ban on public education for illegal immigrant children.

Orange County voters still favor the initiative by a solid 60% to 33%, but a majority said they would not alert authorities about illegal immigrant students, a Times Orange County Poll has found.

Sixty-two percent of the voters said they would not turn in an undocumented student--something that would be required of education, health and law enforcement officials under one of the measure’s more controversial provisions.

Such reservations may indicate soft support, according to Mark Baldassare, chairman of Urban and Regional Planning at the UCI School of Ecology, who conducted the poll. “And as people learn more, they could become more uncomfortable,” he said.

Even so, illegal immigration remains a troubling issue for most voters in Orange County, the birthplace of the so-called “Save Our State” ballot initiative that would deny non-emergency health care, education and social services to undocumented immigrants.

Fifty-eight percent said they considered illegal immigration a big problem in Orange County. And their choices in major state races tended to mirror their views on the topic.

Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, who has been stumping for immigration reform with his television ads, has steadily amassed a huge lead over his challenger, Democrat Kathleen Brown, with the governor favored 62% to 24%.

Wilson gained 10 points since the last Times Orange County Poll in May, shoring up his base with overwhelming support from 83% of Republicans.

Those margins provide Wilson with a critical edge in the fertile Republican territory of Orange County, which Republicans need for a statewide victory. Four years ago, Wilson won Orange County with 63% of the vote, enabling him to narrowly defeat Dianne Feinstein in the governor’s race.

Also leading in Orange County is Republican Senate candidate Mike Huffington, who recently declared his support for Proposition 187. Huffington is ahead of Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein by 54% to 30%.

But Huffington appears to be running in place, his level of support remaining unchanged since a similar poll done in May. His present lead is not enough to guarantee a state victory since Republican candidates typically need a 2-to-1 lead in Orange County to offset voting in the Democratic strongholds of San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Republican Dan Lungren commands such a lead in his race for attorney general, with voters favoring him by 48% to Democrat Tom Umberg’s 22%. Twenty-seven percent remain undecided.

The telephone poll of 600 registered Orange County voters was conducted from Oct. 22 through last Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

Baldassare said the governor’s Orange County lead is particularly important for Wilson because he needs those votes as the race tightens statewide. Equally significant, he said, is that Huffington has not been able to build on his Orange County lead in the past six months.

Wilson and Huffington are drawing voters who overwhelmingly approve of the immigration reform measure. Seventy-three percent of Wilson’s supporters and 76% of Huffington’s backers intend to vote for Proposition 187.

However, these voters do not expect the initiative to solve the thorny problem of illegal immigration: Just 20% think the measure will make a big difference.

Supporter David Buening, 38, of Cypress fully expects the measure to be tossed out by the courts. And yet he still plans to vote for it.

“It’s just to send a message,” he said. “It will be ruled unconstitutional. But that’s probably one of the reasons why I’m going to vote for it. I don’t necessarily agree with it all the way. . . . While I agree with the fact of denying public services to illegal immigrants, I would let them at least get inoculations against tuberculosis.”

Within Buening’s own household, the Proposition 187 debate rages between him and his wife, a German immigrant who is vehemently opposed. Buening also has some doubts about turning in an undocumented immigrant to authorities.

“I don’t know now,” he said. “I guess I probably would although I don’t know any illegal aliens myself.”

In Rancho Santa Margarita, the same fierce debate is taking place between Mary Lou Rodriguez and some of her relatives who support Proposition 187.

Rodriguez, 41, a U.S. citizen and native of Mexico, will vote against the measure because she fears it threatens her privacy and constitutional rights.

“I still feel this is a legal way to discriminate,” she said. “I don’t want to subject my daughter to being questioned for documents. I personally don’t want to be questioned and sometimes I think it will get to this fine point. Why should everyone be policed by some other individual? That’s a police state.”

Typically, the voters’ opinions are much more volatile in an initiative campaign. Voters make up their minds fairly late and if they are confused or undecided they’re more likely to vote no, according to David B. Magleby, a Brigham Young University political scientist who has extensively researched the initiative process.

“To date in the campaign, the issue was defined as a way to send a message about illegal immigration--it costs too much. Now the opponents have found ways to raise doubts about Orwellian life,” Magleby said.

The vague concerns of supporters provide an opportunity for the opposition, he said.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted October 22-25 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. Once a household was reached, we asked to speak with a registered voter. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter in Orange County were interviewed. For subgroups, such as likely voters, the margin of error would be larger (plus or minus 5%).

Proposition 187, Wilson Winning

Although an six in 10 county voters support Proposition 187, the same number say they would not report it if they knew of an illegal immigrant child attending a local school. Support for the proposition follows political views, with liberals most in opposition.

Proposition 187 would make illegal immigrants ineligible for public social services,public health care services (unless an emergency under federal law), and attendance atpublic schools, and require state and local agencies to report suspected illegalimmigrants. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition187?

All Voters Liberal Moderate Conservative Yes 60% 39% 52% 75% No 33% 57% 41% 17% Don’t know 7% 4% 7% 8%

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Suppose you knew of a child of an illegal immigrant who was attending a local publicschool. Do you think you would or would not report this to the authorities so thatthe child would be removed from public school?

All Voters Vote Yes on 187 Would 27% 40% Would not 62% 45% Don’t know 11% 15%

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The Races

Gov. Pete Wilson has built a huge lead over Kathleen Brown, doubling the margin he enjoyed in May. Rep. Mike Huffington enjoys a somewhat larger lead over Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Huffington has not increased his share of the vote but has apparently persuaded some to abandon their earlier support for Feinstein. Incumbent Attorney General Dan Lungren holds a 2-1 edge over Democratic challenger Tom Umberg with one voter in four still undecided.

If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for:

All voters May Oct. Republicans Democrats Independents Men Wilson 52% 62% 83% 28% 48% 69% Brown 35% 24% 7% 59% 19% 20% Other 5% 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% Don’t know 8% 12% 9% 11% 29% 8%

All vot Women Wilson 55% Brown 28% Other 1% Don’t know 16%

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If the election for U.S. senator were held today, would you vote for:

All voters May Oct. Republicans Democrats Independents Men Huffington 54% 54% 75% 22% 35% 63% Feinstein 37% 30% 11% 67% 30% 26% Other 1% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% Don’t know 8% 13% 10% 9% 33% 8%

All vot Women Huffington 45% Feinstein 35% Other 4% Don’t know 16%

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If the election for state attorney general were held today, would you vote for:

All voters Republicans Democrats Independents Men Women Lungren 48% 68% 21% 24% 54% 42% Umberg 22% 9% 51% 13% 17% 28% Other 3% 1% 5% 8% 4% 2% Don’t know 27% 22% 23% 55% 25% 28%

Source: Times Orange County Poll