National Perspective : ’94 ELECTIONS / Battles for Governor

Thirty-six governorships are up for grabs, and whoever controls the statehouses will have the opportunity to influence the 1996 presidential contest, particularly in the larger states. It’s more than simply a matter of Republicans versus Democrats; this year, seven independents are either serious contenders or are influencing their races. Here is a look at some key races:

Florida: Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush, son of former President George Bush, are in a dead heat. Bush has focused his campaign on pledges of no new taxes and getting tough on crime. Chiles is turning the popular “throw the bums out” sentiment on its head, blasting his younger opponent’s ideas as untried and unworkable. The Bush campaign is airing an ad that features a murdered girl’s mother, who attacks Chiles for refusing to sign the killer’s death warrant. Chiles backs the death penalty and has countered with an ad that claims his hands have been tied by the judicial process.

New York: Boosted by the endorsement of New York’s Republican Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, three-term Democratic Gov. Mario M. Cuomo has soared into the lead against Republican state Sen. George Pataki. In two weeks, Cuomo has transformed a nine-percentage-point poll deficit into a 10-point lead. He also was heartened by a New York Times’ position that “not only recommend(s) his reelection; we urge it as essential to New York’s progress.” Pataki has ripped Cuomo’s opposition to the death penalty, while Cuomo has ridiculed Pataki’s plan for a tax cut.

Texas: Democratic Gov. Ann Richards is running neck and neck with Republican businessman George W. Bush, another son of the ex-President. Most women are siding with Richards and most men are choosing Bush. Recent press coverage of a probe into Bush’s sale of stock has hurt him, and Richards has capitalized on it by portraying him as an “unsuccessful” and “unethical” businessman simply riding on the name of his father. She also has touted her own support of abortion rights. Bush has repeatedly argued that it is “time for change,” charging that Richards has been soft on crime and has allowed the welfare rolls to swell.

Pennsylvania: In one of 15 races without an incumbent, Rep. Tom Ridge has a good shot to recapture the state’s top job for the GOP. One poll shows Ridge 12 points ahead of Democratic Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, while another has him ahead by a couple of points. Ridge’s campaign has labeled Singel as soft on crime and recently included an ad similar to the controversial Willie Horton spot used in the 1988 presidential campaign against the Democratic nominee. Ridge and Singel are both moderates, support abortion rights and have presented similar economic strategies.

Maine: In a three-way battle, former Democratic Gov. Joe Brennan has lengthened his lead in the polls over independent businessman Angus King and former GOP state Cabinet official Susan Collins, who appears to be out of the running. King has attempted to tap into the pervasive anti-politician mood and has identified himself as a friend to the business community. Brennan has sought to show King as a foe of environmental and liberal causes.

Georgia: In another nasty campaign, Democratic Gov. Zell Miller is holding a slim lead over millionaire GOP businessman Guy Millner. Millner’s ads have tried to make an issue of his opponent’s close association with President Clinton--showing them watching the Super Bowl together, for instance. The Republican also has attacked the governor’s position on welfare. Miller, meanwhile, has accused Millner of not paying state income taxes and has criticized him for running a negative campaign. But the governor has drawn flak for refusing to remove the Confederate symbol from the state’s flag.

Democrats currently holds statehouse Alabama Arkansas Colorado Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Kansas Maryland Nebraska Nevada New Mexico New York Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Vermont Wyoming *** GOP currently holds statehouse Arizona California Illinois Iowa Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota New Hampshire Ohio South Carolina South Dakota Wisconsin *** Independent currently holds statehouse Alaska Connecticut *** No governor’s race this year Delaware Indiana Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi Missouri Montana New Jersey North Carolina North Dakota Utah Virginia Washington West Virginia

Governorships by Party

Current Up or election Not up for election Democrats 29 21 8 Republicans 19 13 6 Independents 2 2 0

Races With Incumbents Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Florida Georgia Illinois Iowa Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Mexico New York Texas Vermont Wisconsin

Term Limit Victims Hawaii: 2 terms in a row Maine: 2 terms Maryland: 2 terms Pennsylvania: 2 terms South Carolina: 2 terms in a row Tennessee: 2 terms in a row Wyoming: 2 terms in 16-year period

Women Running for Governor

Year of candidates Dem. GOP Ind 1984 1 1 0 0 1986 8 3 5 0 1988 2 2 0 0 1990 8 4 4 0 1992 3 2 1 0 1994 10 6 3 1

Poll Standings

The latest standings for each party candidate in the 36 states with gubernatorial elections:

% % Margin GOP Dem. of error Alabama 38% 49% 3.5 Alaska 40% 44% 5.0 Arizona 41% 49% 3.5 Arkansas 26% 63% 3.5 California 52% 43% 4.0 Colorado 29% 52% 4.3 Connecticut 31% 26% 4.2 Florida 45% 45% 3.5 Hawaii 32% 31% 5.0 Idaho 33% 48% 3.5 Illinois 60% 25% 3.0 Iowa 45% 43% 3.5 Kansas 46% 35% 5.0 Maine 12% 38% 4.3 Maryland 42% 48% 3.5 Massachusetts 62% 26% 5.0 Michigan 56% 30% 4.0 Minnesota 56% 22% 4.6 Nebraska 31% 57% 3.5 New Hampshire 67% 16% 3.9 Nevada 41% 50% 3.5 New Mexico 40% 33% 4.9 New York 34% 44% 3.0 Ohio 60% 25% 3.5 Oklahoma 36% 39% 3.5 Pennsylvania 33% 31% 3.5 Rhode Island 38% 37% na South Carolina 47% 40% 3.5 South Dakota 55% 36% 3.5 Tennessee 45% 43% 3.5 Texas 47% 44% 3.5 Vermont 18% 67% 4.0 Wisconsin 67% 23% 3.5 Wyoming 38% 46% 4.4

As compiled by the Political Hotline, based on the most recent major polls in each area.

Sources: Political Hotline, Term Limits Legal Institute, Center for the American Woman and Politics