NEWS ANALYSIS : Democrats Eye Rips in GOP Fabric as Own Cloth Splits

As the tumultuous midterm election campaigns careen toward a close, Democrats are hoping that newly emerging fault lines in the Republican coalition will break the GOP momentum and save them from catastrophic losses in Congress.

But the Democrats’ own divisions may still prove to be the more powerful force in determining their fate.

On the Republican side, divisions over abortion, immigration and the needs of cities have spurred a recent series of high-profile defections, including endorsements of Democrats by the Republican mayors of New York and Los Angeles, and opposition to the GOP-backed Proposition 187 in California by national conservative leaders Jack Kemp and William J. Bennett.

Yet while Democrats have chortled over these public expressions of GOP disagreement, less dramatic--but more endemic--splits within Democratic ranks are casting a longer shadow. Once again, many Democrats are finding it almost impossible to craft a message that both appeals to moderate swing voters and maintains enthusiasm among their traditional base, especially minorities.

From Georgia Gov. Zell Miller to Michigan Senate hopeful Bob Carr, many Democrats have spent most of this year attempting to blunt Republican advantages among white swing voters by emphasizing tough stands on crime and welfare reform and calling for a restoration of family values.

But they are finding that agenda doing little to spur enthusiasm among minority voters they need to turn out in large numbers. To compound the problem, most Democrats in contested races still find themselves running poorly among white voters as well.

“It is fair to say that on the one hand we have not expanded our base and on the other that our base is fraying,” acknowledged Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

With the tide already running toward the GOP, many of these Democrats find themselves caught between the need to stimulate that traditional base with liberal appeals and the fear that those same arguments will alienate moderate voters.

“It is a universal problem for Democrats,” said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.

The Democratic splits are longstanding, unlike the Republican divisions that emerged suddenly from a party that displayed extraordinary unity in opposing Clinton over the last two years.

Within days, New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani endorsed Democratic Gov. Mario M. Cuomo; Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan endorsed Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein; former First Lady Nancy Reagan joined a parade of Republicans who have criticized Virginia GOP Senate candidate Oliver L. North; Helen Milliken, the wife of a former Republican governor, appeared in an ad for Michigan Democratic gubernatorial nominee Howard Wolpe; and Teresa Heinz, the widow of former Republican Sen. John Heinz, denounced Rep. Rick Santorum, the party’s nominee for the seat her husband once held.

Other prominent Republicans recently have crossed party lines to endorse Democrats in Iowa and Minnesota. On Tuesday, Ross Perot, an independent with many Republican followers, publicly endorsed Democratic Texas Gov. Ann Richards.

Personality conflicts explain some of these heresies. Giuliani, for instance, loathes Sen. Alfonse M. D’Amato (R-N.Y.), the patron of Cuomo opponent George Pataki. But the splits also highlight ideological divisions that are likely to become increasingly visible as the GOP presidential race commences next year.

The endorsements of Democrats by Riordan and Giuliani suggest that the GOP’s modest urban revival may produce conflicts with its suburban-oriented contemporary agenda. Kemp’s and Bennett’s opposition to Proposition 187, the California ballot measure that would deny some public services to illegal immigrants, anticipates battles over immigration and welfare reform at the national level. And Milliken’s endorsement of Wolpe--tied to his support of abortion rights--foreshadows a potentially bitter Republican battle over the issue in 1996.

The effect of these endorsements on this year’s campaign, though, is uneven. While Giuliani’s support has clearly helped Cuomo, North’s core supporters appear impervious to criticism from other Republicans, and Milliken’s backing has not revived Wolpe’s lagging fortunes.

While Republicans are facing these episodic eruptions of dissent, Democrats are confronting more systemic divisions in their coalition. Over the last few years, several Democrats who have moved sharply toward the center--such as former governors James J. Florio in New Jersey and James Blanchard in Michigan--have been defeated, partly because their messages failed to generate sufficient turnout and support among blacks.

In Georgia, many Democrats worry that Gov. Miller--who has emphasized such issues as welfare reform and juvenile crime--could fall victim to the same dynamic this year. Last week a group of Georgia blacks led by a Democratic state representative criticized Miller for pushing “punitive” welfare measures and “a very mean-spirited crime package,” and endorsed his conservative Republican opponent, Guy Millner.

With such examples in mind, some Democrats who spent much of the year reaching out to moderates, especially whites, now are abruptly shifting their emphasis toward motivating dispirited liberal, minority and labor voters in the campaign’s final days.

Toward that end, many Democrats are returning to populist economic themes. At the national level, Democrats are running ads resurrecting the traditional charge that Republicans will cut Social Security.

After talking about values and crime for much of the campaign, Democrats like Michigan Senate hopeful Carr and Tennessee Sen. Jim Sasser are now accusing their opponents of favoring the rich and contemplating cuts in Medicare.

“It is old-fashioned Democratic class warfare,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who is working for Bill Frist, the millionaire Republican surgeon opposing Sasser.

In other states, Democrats belatedly have turned to themes intended to activate minority voters.

Texas Gov. Richards late last week unveiled radio advertisements accusing George W. Bush, son of the former President and her Republican opponent, of insensitivity to minorities. Last weekend, on a campaign swing that took her from an NAACP civil rights march in Houston to black churches in Dallas to a Latino rally deep in the Rio Grande Valley, she aggressively sold her record of hiring minorities for state office and funneling state contracts to minority businesses.

This return to traditional themes carries measurable risks for Democrats. Attacks on the rich can motivate base Democrats but repel independents, Ayres noted. And, especially in Southern states, overt appeals to minorities like Richards’ carry the risk of alienating some white voters.