Local Elections : ABSENTEE BALLOTS : Estimated 23% Expected to Cast Their Votes by Mail

Nearly 56,000 Ventura County voters have requested absentee ballots for Tuesday’s gubernatorial election, and about one in every four is expected to cast ballots by mail, election officials said Friday.

The number of ballots issued in advance of Election Day is the second highest ever, surpassed only by the 1992 presidential election, when a record 57,000 ballots were mailed to voters, said Richard Dean, county clerk and recorder.

Dean predicted a 59% turnout of the county’s 351,921 registered voters Tuesday, which would be the lowest in a gubernatorial election in recent history.

“It’s a national trend,” Dean said. “If you ask people why they don’t vote, they will give you a lot of different answers. . . . People are busier, they’re commuting to work, (they) believe their votes don’t count for anything, or they believe that all politicians are crooks.”

The county’s ballot will include more than 100 elective offices, including positions on nine city councils, 17 school boards and 18 special district boards. Voters will also cast ballots for county auditor and two seats on the Board of Supervisors.

And they will pick three state legislators, two congressional representatives and a U.S. senator. Nine other statewide posts are on the ballot, including the governorship, as well as nine propositions.

Even with such emotionally charged ballot measures as Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigrant initiative, Dean said he did not expect voters to turn out in large numbers.

“There are always volatile issues on the ballot,” he said. But certain campaigns may turn as many voters off as they bring to the polls, he added.

Despite the expected decline in voters overall on Tuesday, the number of absentee ballots expected to be cast is about 48,000, or 23% of the total vote, Dean said. Nearly 8,000 absentee ballots will never be returned or are disqualified because they are damaged or wrongly marked.

Absentee voting has increased dramatically over the years. In 1980, fewer than 20,000 absentee ballots were issued in Ventura County, but by the end of the decade that number had more than doubled.

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Traditionally, absentee voting has favored Republicans over Democrats, because many who cast ballots by mail were either senior citizens or white-collar commuters from the heavily Republican east county.

Hank Starr, chairman of the county’s Democratic Central Committee, said that is no longer the case. He said Democratic Party officials have worked aggressively this year to promote the advantages of absentee voting, particularly among blue-collar workers.

“What we’ve found is that many Democrats don’t vote because it is a burden to them, some are farm workers who work during the day or commute to Los Angeles to work,” Starr said. “So there’s been a big push this year for the first time to get them to vote by mail.”

Peggy Sadler, an official with the county’s Republican Central Committee, said Republicans don’t have to promote absentee balloting, because it is already popular among party members.

“We’ve done some (promoting) in the past, but this time it didn’t seem necessary,” she said, noting that Republicans had concentrated more on simply registering voters this year.

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Of the county’s registered voters, Republicans represent 155,468 and Democrats 144,791.

Sadler attributed the Republicans’ lead to an aggressive voter-registration drive, which reversed a three-year trend that saw large Democratic gains in the county. She said voter dissatisfaction with the Clinton Administration also helped.

“I think people who didn’t vote for George Bush have realized that there are worse things than George Bush,” Sadler said.

Starr, however, said the Republican Party may have lost some of the inroads it had made in the Latino community with the party’s strong support of Proposition 187, which would deny most government benefits to illegal immigrants.

“They may get 187 passed, but I think it will have a lingering effect,” Starr said. “Long after Republicans forget 187, I believe Latinos will remember it.”

FYI

Registered voters can still vote by absentee ballot at the County Government Center in Ventura, 800 S. Victoria Ave., on Monday or Tuesday. The county registrar’s office is open from 7:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. Information: 654-2664.

County Election Turnouts

% voter Total Absentee General election turnout votes cast ballots issued November, 1976 83.0 159,874 9,640 November, 1980 82.3 195,983 17,751 November, 1982 73.1 181,257 18,913 November, 1984 77.5 228,631 32,025 November, 1986 59.2 178,506 23,729 November, 1988 75.6 248,351 41,310 November, 1990 60.8 187,530 45,159 November, 1992 76.9 276,404 57,458 November, 1994 -- -- 55,656*

* Absentee ballots issued by mail. Officials anticipate dozens more to be issued in person before the election.

Source: Ventura County registrar of voters