ELECTIONS ’94 : House Plays Musical Chairs; Gingrich Calls Tune : Congress: The GOP takeover will bring radical changes to leadership of key committees. Milder shifts are seen in the Senate.

For years, Rep. George Miller (D-Martinez), a staunch environmentalist, has battled developers as chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee.

Now his fight is over. Come January, Miller is expected to be replaced by Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), a strong proponent of development whose peeves include the strict government regulation of millions of acres of federal land in his state. As a member of the minority, the once-powerful Miller will have little sway over the committee agenda.

As the switch on the Natural Resources panel shows, the 1995 Congress will be vastly different from the old. Every gavel of every committee of Congress will be in different hands. Conservative Republicans will take over chairmanships from often-liberal lawmakers and will decide what hearings are held, what legislation is considered and what the rules are.

In the House, a good many committees and certainly subcommittees may no longer even exist.

The likely new Speaker, Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), has vowed to slash congressional staff by at least a third and radically reconfigure the committee structure.

In the Senate, with the exception of the ascendancy of a few high profile chairmen such as Alfonse M. D’Amato (R-N.Y.) and Jesse Helms (R-S.C.), most experts predict that the differences will not be as great.

“Most of these people who will be taking over the House have very little profile, and no meaningful legislative record other than voting,” said Allen Shick, a professor of political science at George Mason University. “They have never led.”

Indeed, none has ever had the opportunity to do so. It’s been 40 years since the Republicans last controlled the House.

The change is going to be dazzling.

The Republicans can’t wait. As he stood before a throng at the Westin Hotel in Costa Mesa on Tuesday night, Republican Rep. Robert K. Dornan of Garden Grove tantalized the crowd. After years on the minority side, Dornan is in line to become a Armed Services subcommittee chairman.

“Chairman . . . Dornan,” he said as if trying on the title for size. Then he produced a wooden gavel, pounded it exuberantly on the lectern and shouted to the back of the room: “Liberal Democrats! You shut your mouth!”

The list of new committee assignments includes:

* On the powerful House subcommittee on health and the environment, Chairman Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles), who has waged war on the tobacco industry and was getting close to banning smoking in public places, is likely to be replaced by Rep. Thomas J. Bliley Jr. Bliley’s Richmond, Va., district is the home of Philip Morris Tobacco Co., and he is one the industry’s finest champions in Congress.

* On the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep Bill Archer (R-Tex.) would represent “a major, major, major move to the right,” said Joe White, a senior policy analyst at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. Archer is committed to reducing broad capital gains taxes.

* Henry J. Hyde (R-Ill.), the controversial but respected heir-apparent of the House Judiciary Committee chairmanship, is likely to try to spearhead a federal version of California’s anti-illegal-immigrant Proposition 187, several congressional analysts said.

One outstanding question in the shuffling is how much control Gingrich will exert. Many observers anticipate a tense battle for the House agenda between Gingrich and his new Republicans and the older, somewhat more moderate Republicans who would take over the committees if seniority were the determining factor.

Gingrich has made it clear that he wants to return to the era of centralized power, rather than continuing the current practice of allowing decisions to flow from the committee chairs.

“Good luck,” said James A. Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential studies at American University. “I don’t think anyone could do that in these days.”

Still, “his operating style is very coordinated,” said Rick Shapiro, director of the Congressional Management Foundation, a consulting group that trains congressional staff. “He will appoint very few chairmen who will go off and be moderate.”

On Wednesday, Gingrich told reporters that he intends to bypass the seniority system in choosing committee chairs.

Among the rumored possibilities:

* Carlos J. Moorhead (R-Glendale) might ordinarily be in line to assume the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee from Rep. John S. Dingell (D-Mich.) Some of Gingrich’s aides, however, consider Moorhead too moderate and suggest that he would meet with strong opposition.

* On the Rules Committee, 64-year-old Gerald B.H. Solomon (R-N.Y.) would be line to head a panel that can be important in assembling the Speaker’s power because it controls many of the levers and switches of the House. But Solomon staged a brief challenge to Gingrich for the Republican whip’s job two years ago. “And Gingrich’s people think he’s too moderate, not a true believer,” said a consultant employed by the Senate.

Insiders say Gingrich’s favorite for that post is Rep. David Dreier (R-San Dimas), a 42-year-old member of the committee who, like Gingrich, made his name not legislatively but as a constant scold of Democratic methods.

* Another senior Republican who is widely discussed as being on Gingrich’s hit list is Bill Thomas of Bakersfield, who would normally be in line for the House Administration committee. “Too moderate,” said one Capitol Hill aide familiar with Gingrich’s ideas.

In the Senate, the Republican revolution may be gentler.

On the Armed Services panel, the differences between Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) and Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) will not be enormous. On the Finance Committee, there also is little to separate moderate Republican Bob Packwood of Oregon from moderate Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York, said congressional scholar Norman Ornstein. The same applies on the Appropriations Committee, where Republican Mark O. Hatfield of Oregon is expected to take over from Democrat Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia.

A few moves, however, would be more fundamental.

On the Senate Banking Committee, D’Amato is expected to undertake high-profile investigations, including hearings on President Clinton’s Whitewater real estate investment, which is currently the subject of an investigation by an independent government counsel. But on basic fiscal policy, D’Amato will not differ radically from the current chairman, Michigan Democrat Donald W. Riegle Jr., analysts said.

A major change will occur when Helms takes over as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Helms has used his seat on the panel, currently chaired by Rhode Island Democrat Claiborne Pell, to fight State Department appointments and other moves he opposes. Helms’ aides have already advised the State Department to drop Clinton’s pending nomination of Robert A. Pastor, a longtime aide to former President Jimmy Carter, as U.S. ambassador to Panama.

“We’re going to screw ‘em whenever they turn around,” a Helms aide said, referring to the Democrats.

Among California Republicans, the potential harvest of chairmanships is rivaled only by the dismantling of Democratic empires.

California Democrats held chairmanships of four House committees--Armed Services; Natural Resources; Public Works and Transportation; and Science, Space and Technology. They also held many subcommittee posts.

Now, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) may take over the Committee on the District of Columbia and he may also be in line to head a subcommittee of Science, Space and Technology.

On the Appropriations Committee, which has ultimate control over House spending, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands) will almost certainly become one of 13 subcommittee chairmen--dubbed the “cardinals” for their power to influence spending decisions.

Rep. Ron Packard (R-Oceanside) could also possibly benefit from Appropriations Committee chess moves and wind up in striking distance of a subcommittee chairmanship.

New Senate Committee Chairmen

The party that controls the Senate and House also controls the committees that shape legislation, pass judgement on presidential appointees and launch high-profile investigations. Under the seniority system, these Republicans are now in line to take over key committees since the GOP has won a Senate majority.

* Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs

ALFONSE M. D’AMATO of New York. An outspoken critic of Administration policies and personnel, D’Amato almost certainly would seek to embarrass President Clinton by investigating the Whitewater controversy more intensely than the present chairman, Donald W. Riegle Jr. (D-Mich.), who is retiring.

* Foreign Relations

JESSE HELMS of North Carolina. A conservative scourge of presidents past who delights in sparring with the State Department, he opposes U.S. foreign aid and many of Clinton’s foreign policy initiatives. Helms would succeed Claiborne Pell (D-R.I.), a lackluster chairman.

* Armed Services

STROM THURMOND of South Carolina. Back in 1948, as a breakaway Democrat, Thurmond ran for President against Harry S. Truman as a defender of racial segregation. Now, approaching 92, he will be hard-pressed to oversee the nation’s defense spending with the tireless attention to detail of the current chairman, Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), a serious student of Pentagon programs.

* Finance

BOB PACKWOOD of Oregon. Although he is more liberal than many of his GOP colleagues, Packwood, who headed the Finance Committee in the early 1980s, probably would toe the party line in an effort to save himself from being sanctioned on sexual-harassment charges. He would succeed Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-N.Y.), the quixotic economics professor-turned-politician.

* Appropriations

MARK O. HATFIELD of Oregon. Unlike other members of his party ascending to chairmanships, he is more liberal than the present chairman, Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.), who has used the post to gain political pork for his home state.

* Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry

RICHARD G. LUGAR of Indiana. He probably would be more conservative and more attentive to the interests of the Midwestern grain-growing farmers than the current chairman, Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.)

* Budget

PETE V. DOMENICI of New Mexico. The chairman of the Budget Committee the last time the Republicans held a majority in the Senate, he is viewed as a stronger proponent of deficit reduction than Democrat Chairman Jim Sasser of Tennessee.

* Judiciary

ORRIN G. HATCH of Utah. The President’s judicial nominees-particularly liberals-are certain to encounter tougher scrutiny by a committee chaired by a conservative, who would replace liberal Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.).

* Labor and Human Resources

NANCY LANDON KASSEBAUM of Kansas. Although she is not always as conservative on the issues that come before this committee as many other Republicans, she is certainly more conservative than the current chairman, Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.).

Probable House Chairs

* Energy and Commerce: Carlos Moorhead, 72, who represents the Glendale-Burbank area 27th District, is staunchly conservative. He has been criticized by some party colleagues for not being aggressive enough.

* Judiciary: Henry Hyde, 70, is a flamboyant silver-haired former trial lawyer from Illinois whose name is linked with the amendment that bans federal funding of most abortions.

* Armed Services: Floyd Spence, 66, of South Carolina, has been in the House since 1970 and in 1971 became the first member to sponsor a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

* Appropriations: Joseph McDade, 63, of Pennsylvania, is under indictment on racketeering and bribery charges stemming from defense contracts he allegedly helped secure in exchange for favors. Whether he would be able to take the chair would have to be decided by the party.

* Ways and Means: Bill Archer, 66, of Texas, who after 24 years of fighting Democratic tax policies will get to promote the anti-tax, free-market agenda of his party like never before.

* Agriculture: Pat Roberts, 58, was a newspaper editor and then a House aide before running for his western Kansas seat in 1980. He has voted to protect Kansas farmers from tax reformers.

* Banking: Jim Leach, 52, was director of a federal savings and loan before winning his congressional seat in 1976. The Iowa representative’s voting record makes him one of the most liberal Republicans in the House, but he is fiscally conservative.

* Budget: John Kasich, 42, was an Ohio state senator before being elected to Congress in 1982. His heart is in streamlining military expenditures and balancing the U.S. burden-share with European and other allies.

* Education and Labor: William Goodling, 66, was a public school board member before taking Pennsylvania’s 19th District seat. Despite coming under heavy fire during the House banking scandal, Goodling’s longstanding support of bipartisan education measures has kept him in office since 1974.

* Foreign Affairs: Benjamin Gilman, 71, former New York assemblyman, has held his seat since 1972. Known for his moderate stance on economic and foreign policy, he supports ending the arms embargo against Bosnia.