When the GOP Has It All, Will It Be Enough? : Republicans carving up the spoils of victory must save more than scraps for the poor.

Our first Republican President, Abraham Lincoln, declared Thanksgiving to be a national holiday in 1863. This year, Republicans have much to be thankful for. President Clinton framed the midterm election as a showdown between Reaganism and Clintonism--and the Gipper won decisively. But as Republicans count their blessings, they should reflect on two threats to their bounty: the trend of the economy in the long run and the tendencies of the GOP in the short run.

Some say that in the 1980s, the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. They’re right. According to the Census Bureau, the bottom 40% of Americans saw their real incomes fall during the ‘80s, while everyone else gained. That’s bad, but that data needs perspective. Here’s the 1994 Economic Report of the President: “Starting sometime in the late 1970s, income inequalities widened alarmingly in America.” The President then was Jimmy Carter, and he was no supply-sider.

Today, the same income skew continues, with another Democrat in the White House. Median family income declined in 1993, while the income share of the top one-fifth of American earners rose the most and the income share of the bottom one-fifth fell the most. In other words, the rich are still getting richer and the poor are still getting poorer. The Economic Policy Institute is blunt: “Wage inequality will continue to grow.” The phenomenon of income disparity is so powerful that it rose during the great inflation of the ‘70s, the tax-cutting of the ‘80s and the tax increases of both George Bush and Clinton.

Why? The vast expansion of the global market divides Americans into two groups, those who must compete with the world and those who can sell to the world. Meanwhile, the schools, job-training programs and the entire social-welfare system have all broken down--another bipartisan “nega-trend” dating back decades. Clinton was elected to “put people first,” to get them skills they would need for “good jobs at good wages.” Obviously he has failed. When last heard from, his Labor Department was halfheartedly trying to consolidate 150 job-training programs that waste most of the $20 billion they spend each year. At the same time, his diversity-crazed Education Department was full-throatedly pushing politically correct history standards that have nothing to do with productive work of any kind.

Until Nov. 8, this was all Clinton’s fault--and the Democrats paid the price at the polls. But come January, the Republicans will have at least as much domestic policy clout as Clinton. What are they going to do with their newfound power? The GOP will get past the symbolism--school prayer, term limits, threatening Cuba--quickly enough. Then members will get to what they really care about--cutting taxes. It’s revealing that Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) wanted to link the passage of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to a reduction of the capital-gains tax rate. Yes, that’s “trickle down” economics--but since the fall of the Wall, what other kind of economics is there? The Republican leadership will strive for “fairness”; it will surely pass a “family tax credit,” helping Clinton keep his 1992 campaign promise.

So far, so good. Now ask yourself: In one year, which is more likely to improve, the investment climate for billionaires or the life prospects of welfare recipients? Capitalism works pretty well; the big problem in America is the failure of socialism. The Soviet-style bureaucratic institutions that rip off taxpayers deserve defunding, but the poor people trapped within them deserve a better deal, too.

Looking ahead, here’s a safe bet: The Republicans will accelerate the spin of the money wheel. The top half or even two-thirds of the country will benefit. The GOP will try to bring markets, empowerment and entrepreneurship to the poor. But the Democrats, locked in their fatalistic Brezhnevian mind set, will resist real reform. Thereupon the GOP will give up and settle for spending cuts instead. It will be hard to blame the Republicans for doing so; it will also be hard to forgive them.

Jack Kemp says that a great party must have a great cause. His idea is that the GOP should be the true Good Shepherd. But nobody listens to Kemp any more.

If this sad scenario comes true, Thanksgiving, 1995, will see the Republicans richer in material things but poorer in spirit. That’s not the way that Lincoln would have wanted it.