Local Stock-Market Letter Has a Bearish Outlook

Wall Street is 3,000 miles away, but a small stock-market letter is being published in Ventura County.

The advisory, The Inger Letter, based in Thousand Oaks, has been quoted several times in Barron’s “Market Watch” column. In September, for instance, Barron’s cited publisher Gene Inger’s bearish outlook toward the market--a viewpoint that he’s held for some time.

This time at least, Inger was on target. On Nov. 22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nose-dived 91 points.

Inger, 50, describes himself as “a technician who follows monetary trends and fundamentals.” Translation: He takes cues from historic ups and downs, but also watches the money supply and individual companies’ prospects.

“Three-quarters of all stocks are down 25% from their 1993-94 highs,” Inger said. “I expect the market to continue downward for at least another six months. Any rallies will be false and abortive.”

The chief problem behind the lackluster performance, he says, is the interest rate hikes dictated by the Federal Reserve. Besides putting a damper on the economy, the Fed’s moves are driving investors into the bond market, where interest yields are looking increasingly sweet.

“If he knows where to look, a person can get an 8% yield on 10-year paper,” Inger noted.

Inger, who started his letter in 1970, finds Thousand Oaks as good a place as any to track the market. But, while his letter is still published there and he spends a good deal of time in Ventura County, Inger now lives mostly in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “The stock market is on Eastern time. You have to get up too early in the morning to follow it from California.”

For the record, Inger likes the long-range outlook for several stocks, but wouldn’t buy them unless they go a bit lower. His candidates: Caesars Palace, AT & T, General Motors and Southern California Edison.