O.C. Jobless Rate Falls to 4.8% in November : Employment: It’s lower than October’s 5.1%, but more important, analysts say, it is also lower than the same 1993 period.

Orange County’s unemployment rate for November fell to 4.8%, the lowest level for the key economic indicator since December, 1991, and substantially below the statewide average.

Much of the improvement since October, when the county’s jobless rate was 5.1%, came from seasonal hiring as retailers geared up for holiday shopping.

But a separate tally of employment at businesses in Orange County showed that a substantial number of permanent jobs have been added to local payrolls since November, 1993, when the jobless rate hit 6%.

“It’s nice to see growth, and it’s a hefty increase” after almost four years of recession, said Anil Puri, head of the economics department at Cal State Fullerton.

Orange County’s jobless rate last month was the second-lowest in the state, trailing only the 4.1% figure reported for Marin and San Mateo counties in Northern California. For the state as whole, the rate was 7.5%.

Despite the staggering investment losses disclosed recently by Orange County officials, the jobs picture is not likely to change significantly in coming months, Puri and other economists said.

“There will be some layoffs of existing employees, but we expect the main impact on government will be to stop new hiring,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. “Nothing much should show up until early next year” in unemployment statistics.

Adibi predicted another decline in Orange County’s jobless rate for this month, too, as merchants make last-minute holiday hires.

For November, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday, Orange County employers added 4,900 jobs to their payrolls.

Total non-farm employment rose to 1.126 million from 1.121 million for October.

Most of the increase came from the addition of 4,400 retail jobs--a combination of seasonal employment and the openings in late October and early November of two Super K mart stores in Orange County.

With four consecutive months of job growth, the county is having its longest growth spurt since the recession began in July, 1990.

Economists generally give less weight to month-to-month jobless rate changes than to year-to-year comparisons, which reflect seasonal factors.

But in that area, too, November was significant. “It’s the first time we’ve seen three consecutive months of year-to-year gains since 1990,” Puri said.

November’s employment tally was up by 3,700 jobs from a year earlier, EDD figures showed. Even better, most of those jobs were permanent positions in the business services and transportation industries.

The increase in service-related jobs has a down side, though, analysts said. They typically pay less than the aerospace and defense manufacturing positions that were once a mainstay of the county’s economy.

“Manufacturing is still depressed,” Adibi said, “and we think that will be the case through 1995 as well. Still, Orange County is doing better than Los Angeles County,” where the November unemployment rate was 8%.

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Unemployment Down

Orange County’s unemployment rate for November was the lowest in almost three years. It was also substantially below the state and nationwide figures. Here is the county’s 13-month trend:

Nov. 1993: 6.0%

Nov. 1994: 4.8%

November Comparison

Orange County: 4.8%

California: 7.5%

U.S.: 5.6%

Source: California Employment Development Department