Clinton Aims for Political Gains in Foreign Policy Arena : Diplomacy: President’s aides say Syria is a promising place to start. Christopher-Lake team is expected to stay.

With a Republican Congress grabbing the initiative on the domestic front, President Clinton hopes to turn foreign policy to his political advantage in the next two years, making a mark in a less partisan arena where Congress has less authority to tie his hands.

But in the chaotic post-Cold War world, he is finding few places where he has a good chance for clear-cut success and plenty of opportunities--including relations with Cold War foes Russia, China and North Korea--to get into trouble.

Where can Clinton look for the sort of high-profile accomplishment that could boost his sagging approval ratings as he readies his reelection campaign?

Astonishingly, many aides point to Syria, for decades a blight on America’s Middle East policy.

After two years of intense American mediation, the painfully slow pace of peace negotiations between Syria and Israel has reached the point where a breakthrough in 1995 is at least possible, although by no means assured.

Officials also hope to build on Clinton’s earlier successes in world trade. But the President already has skimmed the cream in that area with congressional approval of North American and global trade agreements. And now he faces trench warfare with Japan and other trading partners as he tries to open their markets to American goods.

As for Russia, its relations with the United States already are growing more strained and could deteriorate further if Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin loses his shaky hold on power or turns toward assertive nationalism in response to domestic political pressures.

China? With senior leader Deng Xiaoping too ill to wield power, the United States will do well if it can merely keep relations with his successor from getting worse.

Whatever develops, the foreign policy team that Clinton fields for the next two years almost surely will be the same one that drew wholesale criticism for much of the last two.

With an antagonistic Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) poised to become chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Administration officials say that the President is reluctant to make any appointments that would require Senate confirmation.

Even when Helms was in the minority, he made a specialty of blocking diplomatic appointments and he is expected to be an even more formidable roadblock as chairman.

Besides, officials said that Clinton believes Secretary of State Warren Christopher and White House National Security Adviser Anthony Lake have hit their stride after a sometimes rocky start.

Moreover, these officials said that Christopher and Lake, both of whom toyed with the idea of resigning earlier in the Administration, are now comfortable in their jobs and want to stay.

The Middle East is where their hopes are highest. If Israel and Syria, Jerusalem’s most implacable foe, can make peace--an achievement that both sides say would be impossible without U.S. participation--it would give Clinton a major victory that would prove popular across the spectrum of American public opinion.

“I can’t confidently predict that we will get it, but things have moved in a positive direction,” a senior Administration strategist said. “This is extremely important to achieve.”

It is important because it almost certainly would trigger the final dismantling of the Arab economic boycott of Israel, giving the Administration another foreign policy ornament. And it is important as well because in many other areas, Clinton will have to work hard and be lucky just to maintain the status quo and avoid major disasters.

The ethnic war in Bosnia-Herzegovina hangs over the world scene like a toxic cloud. As one senior official put it: “Bosnia will be a problem to the day the (President’s) term ends.” But Clinton also faces dangers in areas where the Administration has been successful so far.

In Russia, for instance, the Administration has supported political and economic reform and forged a normal and friendly relationship with Washington’s former Cold War adversary, a significant achievement by any standard.

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But those ties are showing signs of strain as Moscow resumes its traditional role as a major force in world politics and as the reformers lose power and influence.

Officials see little room for dramatic advances in the U.S.-Russia relationship and they worry that things could go very wrong if Yeltsin loses his job or saves it by shifting from reformer to abrasive nationalist.

“Since the reformers have lost all the earlier rounds in Russian history, you’ve got to be kind of optimistic to think they’re going to win this one,” an Administration official said.

Christopher, ever the optimist, has insisted that U.S.-Russian relations are on track, despite embarrassing incidents at European conferences this month. Yeltsin and Russian Foreign Minister Andrei V. Kozyrev stunned U.S. representatives with noisy denunciations of American plans to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“There will always be areas in which the United States is able to work very effectively with Russia. There will be other areas that need to be managed carefully,” Christopher said. “But I believe we go into the new year determined once again to support the reform and the reformers in Russia and determined to find ways to manage those issues in which we may have some different interests.”

The picture is much the same in Asia. In North Korea, the hottest Asian trouble spot of Clinton’s first two years, the Administration must defend the deal it made in 1994 to defuse Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for economic aid and a relaxation of diplomatic isolation.

Officials insist that the agreement remains a success for Clinton foreign policy, despite the recent downing of a U.S. helicopter in North Korea. But they concede that it could turn troublesome in 1995 if there are more such incidents, or if Republicans in Congress attack the deal as too favorable to North Korea.

In outlining the Administration’s six top priorities for 1995, Christopher described a holding strategy that emphasized maintenance over initiatives. His list:

* “Maintain constructive ties with the world’s key economic and military powers” such as Russia, China, Japan, Britain, France and Germany.

* “Strengthen the institutions of European security and extend their benefits to the East,” primarily by devising a NATO expansion plan.

* “Maintain the momentum toward regional and global trade liberalization,” building on Congress’ approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the new global trade accord that will create a new World Trade Organization as successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

* “Help bring the Middle East closer to a comprehensive settlement (by) consolidating the agreements Israel has already made with the PLO and Jordan and pushing for progress on the difficult Syria and Lebanon tracks.”

* Combat the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by obtaining congressional ratification of a 3-year-old nuclear arms reduction agreement with Russia, winning international approval of an extension of the 30-year-old nuclear non-proliferation treaty and negotiating a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty.

* Fight the threats to national security posed by “international crime, drug trafficking and terrorism.”

Other officials said that Clinton will continue to stress the free trade policy that marked his first two years in office.

The President maintains that more liberal trade ultimately will strengthen the U.S. economy and produce high-paying jobs in export-oriented industries.

One senior official said that the Administration hopes to make progress toward reducing trade barriers with Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. But no final agreements are expected in either area next year.

Hodding Carter, State Department spokesman in the Jimmy Carter Administration, said that Clinton deserves credit for his consistent approach to foreign trade.

“The biggest political bounce that President Clinton can get in foreign policy is if he shows the same consistency in other aspects that he shows in his pursuit of widening world markets,” Carter said. “He needs to decide what his policies are and pursue them.”

Margaret Tutwiler, State Department spokeswoman in the George Bush Administration, said that Clinton could score political points in foreign policy only by being perceived as being resolute.

“Americans, except in time of war, do not care much about foreign policy,” Tutwiler said. “Where it has hurt President Clinton is where it has contributed to . . . the image of trying to make all parties happy at once.”