PERSPECTIVE ON ALGERIA : A Vote Nullified Becomes Terrorism : The Islamists are coming to power; the West can influence whether that happens by a vote or in a spasm of violence.

The hijacking of a French airliner by Islamic extremists represents a new phase of escalation in a struggle for power in Algeria between the quasi-military government and Islamist forces, both radical and moderate. The United States would be well-advised to avoid being caught between France and the Algerians.

Algeria has been lumbering toward its moment of truth for the past two years as a brutal civil war between a dying authoritarian regime and increasingly violent Islamist forces lurches to denouement. The West almost certainly will have to face the reality of an Islamic fundamentalist regime coming to power in Algiers in the next year or so.

The implications are major. Algeria is the dominant force in North Africa. Algiers is closer to Paris by air--or missile--than to Tamanrasset, Algeria’s southernmost city. Algeria’s oil and gas supplies are of growing importance to Europe; Spain will soon derive most of its natural gas from Algeria. The victory of an Islamist regime in Algeria will stimulate other Islamist movements in the region, especially Egypt.

The West thus has plenty of reason to worry. Iran and Sudan, the only two Islamist regimes in power, hardly provide edifying models of enlightened or successful rule.

It did not have to have be this way. To some, the Algerian government’s decision to annul the December, 1991, elections, in which the Islamists won a plurality, was a serious mistake. Washington is to be faulted for acquiescing out of concern for Islamists coming to power. In the end, the repressive tactics pursued by the Algerian military regime--banning the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), arresting its leaders and conducting a campaign of violence--have failed. Its only accomplishment has been to strengthen the radicals within FIS and push them to greater violence.

The reality is that the FIS is almost certain to come to power as existing authority collapses in Algeria. The question is no longer whether, but how. Do we want an FIS that comes to power in a spasm of violence, civil collapse, anarchy and vengeance? That was how Ayatollah Khomeini seized absolute power in 1979. Or do we want power achieved by military coup, this time by officers sympathetic to FIS who want to end the civil war? That was how the Sudanese regime--one that violates most precepts of Islam in its governance--came to power in 1989.

The last best hope for preserving any shred of moderation is for the FIS to come to power by renewed elections, which it would surely win. Such an environment would preserve a framework of constitutionality. It would preserve the presidency, Parliament, the military and other institutions. It would at least suggest that an FIS that came in by the ballot box should be required to eventually depart by the ballot box.

Can the FIS be trusted to abide by democratic means once in power? Not at all. Indeed, the present government cannot be trusted to rule democratically either. But isn’t it better to have pro-Western authoritarians in power than potentially anti-Western ones? The issue is not that simple. The status quo is not tenable; a non-representative, failing, Western-supported (read France) regime hated by the public offers nothing positive for the future.

We can be sure that Islamists in power in Algeria will institute some laws and social regulations that are not congenial to the West. Neither are those in Saudi Arabia, China or other places we do business with.

One might prefer that Islamists not come to power. But they are a significant force in the Muslim world. They are organized at the grass roots, outspoken against corruption and strong on social programs. These are among the reasons why they are popular. And they stand against unpopular and ineffective regimes.

Ultimately, the most radical elements in these movements can be contained only by more moderate Islamist elements. These elements are gaining political experience, facing the realities of the modern world. The future struggles lie between more moderate and more radical Islamist forces; everyone demands better governance. Once Islamists are part of the political process, much of the “magic” they are popularly thought to wield will be revealed for what it is: another political party that may or may not have better answers.

The Islamists are coming in Algeria. It is hoped that this time Washington can influence Algiers to make the process a controlled, legal and constitutional one. Time is short. There are no guarantees along any path. But surely, extension of the present murderous environment in Algeria does not suggest a better course.