Ignorance Is Bliss in the High-Tech Marketplace
Intel now promises to replace its flawed Pentiums for anyone who asks; Calgene’s genetically engineered FlavrSavr tomato finally enjoys modest regional sales; Microsoft’s oft-delayed Windows 95 operating system is threatening to become a “misnumer”; more than a million “newbies” a month are logging on to the Internet, and personal computer sales this Christmas leaped by an estimated one-third over last year.
These 1994 events all reflect a rapidly evolving market force that’s fast assumed the momentum of a techno-tsunami. It’s relentless and unstoppable, through 1995 and beyond. For better and worse, it’s now actively rewriting the rules of American innovation.
Barely five years ago, high-tech innovation was primarily shaped by customers who were demanding because they knew an awful lot. Today’s customers are so demanding precisely because they don’t know an awful lot--and don’t want to. Market ignorance--not market information--is now the dominant driver of technological innovation. That’s why an Intel has to promise to replace its Pentiums and a Microsoft delays release of its long-awaited operating system: They now have customers who don’t care to deal with vendor bugs and glitches.
Similarly, that’s why a Calgene has to constantly assure consumers that its genetically engineered FlavrSavrs aren’t “Frankenfoods” that will undermine their precious bodily fluids, but rather tasty tomatoes that don’t rot quite as quickly. Managing consumer ignorance becomes even more important than providing a quality innovation. Indeed, effectively managing consumer ignorance has now become indistinguishable from managing quality innovation. The trick is turning the abject ignorance of the marketplace from an albatross-like liability into a valued asset.
Consider, for example, IBM’s most recent television ads for its personal computers. The ads don’t show the computers at all. Instead, they feature a spokes-comedian talking about the fact that IBM service representatives will answer the phone on the first ring and won’t put you on hold. The implicit message? Hey, don’t worry about the manual or any of that stuff--you got a problem, just call us and we’ll talk you through it . Abysmal ignorance is thus transformed into a market opportunity. Or as they say in the software biz, “Try to turn a bug into a feature.”
Of course, practically every PC company or software house will tell you that customer support is the fastest-growing--and most demanding--part of its business. One PC company estimates that it’ll get at least one customer support call for every computer it sells. Customer support, however, tends to be time-consuming and expensive. As a customer base expands, customer support costs skyrocket.
Needless to say, this provides a tremendous economic incentive to design systems that are easy to use and understand and require little or no follow-up support. In essence, the high-tech marketplace is now being driven to figure out clever ways to meet the needs and pander to uninformed consumers.
Peter Lynch, the extraordinary stock picker who managed Fidelity’s astonishingly successful Magellan mutual fund, once remarked that he preferred to invest in “good companies that any fool could run, because eventually some fool will.” The same ethic, it seems, is now holding true for the design of high technologies: Design them so any fool can use or consume them.
Ironically--even perversely--perhaps one of the biggest competitive advantages our high-technology companies possess is a busy, ill-informed, stressed-out, convenience-seeking mass marketplace. To wit, if we were all exceptionally well-educated, the need to design an easy and accessible personal computer interface wouldn’t be nearly as strong.
But because so many people lack the time, interest and wherewithal to learn sophisticated interfaces, the hardware, software and telecommunications companies are forced to invest in simplicity. Consequently, everyone reaps the benefits of these simple but powerful computer tools.
Of course, such ignorance and lust for convenience is a global phenomenon, so if such products can succeed in America, they’re well-positioned to succeed overseas.
It seems oddly appropriate that the keys to America’s high-tech success rely both on incredibly well-informed people who demand the best tools available and on people who have neither the time nor the temperament to invest in learning about new technologies. Our ignorance turns out to be just as competitive a weapon as our intellect in the global marketplace.
Clearly, a new balance is being struck for innovators who want to succeed worldwide. If this year offers any guide to next, it’s certain that ignorance-driven innovation promises to surpass information-driven innovation as an essential skill.
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