NEWS ANALYSIS : Could Carter’s Bosnia Plan Be the Real Thing?

A four-month truce between Bosnian Serbs and the Muslim-led government that went into effect Sunday may bring a relative peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina this winter and may even usher the enemies back to the bargaining table.

A temporary lull in fighting is in the interest of both sides right now, and neither would like to appear the spoiler of a peace initiative set in motion by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and embraced by the United Nations.

But Europe’s bitterest conflict since World War II is still far from over. If they meet for talks, both sides will find the negotiating table wrapped in the same Gordian knot that has mired them in war for 33 months; most likely, neither has had a change of heart over ultimate goals for territorial control.

To skeptics who have seen many Bosnian cease-fires come and go, the New Year’s Eve agreement for a cessation of hostilities seems to provide nothing more than a winter breather before, in the words of one Western diplomat, “hunting season begins in spring.”

That is entirely possible. Or the skeletal accord that left the difficult details of implementation to a joint commission overseen by the U.N. commander for Bosnia, British Lt. Gen. Michael Rose, could fall apart even earlier.

Yet internal and international political changes in recent months give some Bosnia observers cause for guarded optimism that this accord could see a better outcome.

For now at least, they express hope that there is some truth in the words of Bosnian Serb commander Gen. Ratko Mladic, who, after signing the accord, said, “The time has come for the guns to fall silent and for diplomacy to speak up.”

Yasushi Akashi, the U.N. special envoy for the Balkans, responded Sunday, “I hope that we are turning a very important corner.”

He said he intends for peace talks to resume in Switzerland this month under the auspices of the so-called Contact Group of the United States, Russia, Germany, France and Britain.

The Bosnian Serbs, generally viewed as the aggressors in this war, were politically isolated when they invited Carter to intervene early last month. They had been ostracized by the West for their bloody campaign of “ethnic cleansing” and were economically and militarily cut off by their benefactor in neighboring Serbia, President Slobodan Milosevic, who is seeking the lifting of an international embargo against his own country.

Feeling the pressure, Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic wanted a cease-fire. The truce, which freezes battle lines and inserts U.N. troops between the warring parties, seems to favor Serbian forces, who now control about 70% of the country.

Both sides insist that they do not want another situation like Cyprus, where a Turkish occupation of half the island has been enforced by a U.N. peace agreement for years. The Turks have de facto control but no international recognition.

The Bosnian government seems to fear this the most. They do not want Serbian control solidified, and they resisted signing the very general four-month agreement until receiving a last-minute telephone call from Washington pressing them to do so, according to a U.N. source.

But the Bosnian government also needs a break in the fighting to get food, fuel, supplies and possibly smuggled weapons into their territory. They are the underdog military force.

The accord calls for resuming utilities and normalizing daily life; talks on the withdrawal and monitoring of heavy weapons; freedom of movement and security for the U.N. peacekeeping mission, and respect for all previous U.N.-brokered accords.

That would mean U.N. control over Sarajevo’s airport, civilian traffic on certain roads into the city, an end to sniping and the withdrawal of troops from a demilitarized area on Mt. Igman above Sarajevo--all of which would provide a psychological boost to the besieged Muslim population, whose support the government needs if it is to continue fighting the war.

Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic left that possibility open in his New Year’s message.

“We will negotiate where we can and make war where we have to. If the enemy does not show readiness for reasonable political solutions within the next four months, the cease-fire will not be extended,” he said.

The government has accepted a peace plan drafted by the Contact Group that would give control of 51% of the country to a Muslim-Croat federation and 49% to the Serbs. They insist that the Serbs must accept that plan before negotiations can begin over territorial swaps, while the Serbs say the plan is merely a basis on which to negotiate for more of the territory they now control.

That is the Gordian knot.

There are other factors tugging at the knot. In recent months, both sides apparently have come to understand that international forces will not fight their war. Milosevic is backing off from the Serbs, and the United States and United Nations have shown by their limited air strikes that they will only go so far for Bosnia.

The United States and Europe also have hinted that they might be willing to give in to a Bosnian Serb demand to form a confederation with Serbia.

In the truce accord, the Bosnian Serbs and Muslim-led government agreed to work for the release of detainees and to exchange information on missing people through the International Committee of the Red Cross--although Bosnian Serb refusal to account for thousands of missing Muslims has helped unravel previous accords.

Another weak point is the northwestern Bihac enclave, where some fighting still has been reported between government troops and Bosnian Serbs backed by Croatian Serbs and renegade Muslims.

The government won language calling for the withdrawal of all “foreign troops” from the country, but the Croatian Serbs are not signatories to the accord and rebel Muslims have only verbally agreed to respect it.

Shortages of goodwill on the part of the warring parties, and of U.N. troops to enforce the peace, also contributed to the collapse of past accords. But those go hand in hand, a U.N. source said.

“If there is a genuine peace to keep, that is not as resource-intensive as if there is no peace to keep. If there is goodwill, then this is just a monitoring operation,” he said.

Goodwill or not, and whatever the difficulties, the New Year in Bosnia at least begins with a calm that has not been seen in many months.