COMMENTARY ON QUALITY OF O.C. LIFE : Surveys Reflect Sunny Outlook for the Post-Bankruptcy Era
As Orange County heads into 1995, virtually all attention is being focused on the worst local government financial crisis in American history taking place in the county that had been synonymous with affluence and fiscal conservatism. While the effects are sure to be wide-reaching and there’s plenty of work to do to recover from the crisis, we should not lose sight of all there still is to be hopeful about as the new year begins.
Most important is the timing of the bankruptcy. Orange County’s fiscal woes surfaced when the long-awaited national recovery was in full swing. Moreover, a host of year-end economic reports--including the UCLA Economic Forecast and the California Business Roundtable Survey--show that California’s economy will be stronger in 1995, as employers expand their operations. Because it came in the midst of recovery, few expect the county’s fiscal crisis to seriously harm the local economy.
In fact, our 1994 Orange County Annual Survey found a return of optimism in Orange County. After several years of dismal assessments of the economy and declining quality of life ratings, opinions in 1994 were turning more positive. Here are the key trends in this year’s survey, conducted a few months before the county’s financial crisis began:
* Consumer confidence reached its highest point so far this decade. Forty-nine percent now expect good times nationwide this year and 40% say they are financially better off now than they were a year before.
* Residents are feeling better about the Orange County economy this year, with three in 10 saying it is in “excellent” or “good” shape. Two years from now, 43% expect the local economy to be better than it is today.
* The county’s quality of life ratings are the best they have been since 1990, with seven in 10 saying things are going “well.” Only 30% of residents expect the county to be a worse place to live two years from now.
* Satisfaction with the county’s freeways is the highest in 10 years, and the number of workers calling traffic a great problem during their daily commute is down 11 points from 1989.
* The number thinking that environmental problems pose a very serious threat to their health and well-being has dropped 25 points this decade and 8 points in the past year.
* Most homeowners say buying a home in Orange County is an “excellent” or “good” investment, and half of renters agree.
Can these positive trends in Orange County continue, in the wake of the financial crisis? We think so, since many are the product of an improving economy. In fact, a Times Orange County Poll that we conducted a few weeks ago pointed to our underlying strengths. Although most residents are angry and worried about the financial crisis and many fear cuts in city and county services and public schools, only 7% said the bankruptcy has made them seriously consider moving away. Even more impressive is the fact that seven in 10 expect the county to be back to normal or better off within a few years.
Our ability to build on the growing optimism in Orange County will depend on two factors: minimizing interruption to local services and programs while we find a way past the financial losses, and going “back to the future” of tackling the emerging problems that threaten Orange County in the 1990s. As we focus attention on the county’s fiscal woes, we must make sure not to forget about these other issues.
Most important, crime continues to be a major concern, with three in 10 calling it the county’s most important problem. Nearly half say crime is a significant problem in Orange County today, and many fear they will be the victims of a serious crime. Crime is taking a toll on the county’s suburban lifestyle, with many residents avoiding the county’s parks, shopping and entertainment because of fear.
There are dramatic differences in crime attitudes across the county’s regions. In general, North and Central County residents are more worried about their safety, while those in South County express relatively little concern. If these trends persist, fear of crime could become another factor that pushes affluent North and Central County residents to new addresses in South County.
We also need to encourage private citizens to participate in efforts to solve community problems, particularly in these times of limited local government resources. In the 1994 survey, six in 10 residents say volunteering time is important, yet fewer than half had volunteered in the past month. Local institutions must find ways to actively involve individuals in volunteer efforts.
Finally, the survey found a high level of concern about ethnic and racial conflicts, a sign that many residents are nervous about the recent demographic changes taking place in the county. On the positive side, many are eager to see an expansion of efforts to increase the dialogue and understanding between different ethnic and racial groups. But it is worrisome that many members of the minority community are not voting, so their preferences are not being expressed in elections.
To reduce the potential for ethnic and racial tension, it will be vital to promote discussion between groups, and to increase the political participation of minorities in Orange County.
