‘Rogue Nation’ or Terrorist Poses Serious Nuclear Threat, Perry Says : Arms: In Cairo, the defense secretary expresses fear that weapons-control programs in the Middle East could be unraveling.

Amid a growing Arab determination to back out of nuclear non-proliferation commitments unless Israel abandons its atomic program, Defense Secretary William J. Perry warned Sunday that the possibility of a “rogue nation” or terrorist acquiring a nuclear bomb is “one of the most serious threats facing the world today.”

Ending two days of meetings in Egypt at the beginning of his Middle East tour, Perry said he is urging both Arab nations and Israel to sign an extension of the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, when it comes up for review in March.

The fear that nuclear weapons-control programs could be unraveling in the Middle East in the face of a stalemate in peace talks between Israel and Syria is a key theme in Perry’s talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who met with Perry after his departure from Egypt to Israel.

“When I met with President Mubarak yesterday, when I meet with Prime Minister Rabin this afternoon, I will be urging both of these leaders to support extension of that non-proliferation treaty,” Perry said Sunday.

“It is, I believe, one of the most serious security threats facing the world today: the danger that a rogue nation or a terrorist will get their hands on one, five or a dozen weapons and threaten the world with them.”

Arab nations, frustrated at Israel’s continuing nuclear development program at a time when most Arabs have committed themselves to non-proliferation, have signaled that they will no longer participate in the treaty without Israel joining in.

Arab League officials said that Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Syria--the engines of policy in the Arab world--have all committed themselves not to sign an extension without Israel’s compliance.

Israel, which never signed the NPT, is thought to have about 200 nuclear warheads, although it refuses to acknowledge a weapons program. Israeli leaders have said they will be ready to discuss non-proliferation only after there is a comprehensive peace agreement, including Syria, in the Middle East.

The controversy comes at a particularly dangerous time. Iran is thought to be as little as five years away from developing a nuclear bomb, and Arab leaders have not ruled out the possibility of new weapons programs elsewhere in the Middle East.

“If Israel does not sign, I would expect you to see other countries beginning to seek the nuclear bomb. It will not be an exclusive privilege for one country forever. Remember, nuclear war will eliminate Israel from the map, but it will not eliminate the Arab nation from the map,” Adnan Omran, deputy secretary general of the Arab League, said in an interview.

“Don’t expect any country which is really fearing another country not to resort to all means of self-defense,” added Omran, a Syrian. “If they (Israelis) have a nuclear bomb, you have to seek a nuclear bomb, whether secretly or not.”

Until now, all Arab countries except the United Arab Emirates and Oman have signed the NPT, and neither of these nations has nuclear development programs.

Algeria and Egypt both have nuclear research reactors but are not believed to have moved forward with weapons development. Iraq’s formative weapons program was cut short by the 1991 Persian Gulf War and international sanctions, and Iran remains the most worrying new nuclear development point in the Middle East.

Perry said last week that Iran could be several years away from developing a nuclear weapon on its own, or much closer if able to buy a bomb or fissionable uranium or plutonium from another nation. Importing nuclear scientists and technicians from the former Soviet Union could also speed development of Iran’s program, Perry said.

Egypt, which has been a leader in the non-proliferation movement and put forward a comprehensive proposal to ban all weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, has said it will nonetheless not sign an extension in March unless Israel complies.

Egypt and Israel have been holding direct, behind-the-scenes talks in recent months on the non-proliferation issue, but Egyptian officials have found the talks frustrating and disappointing because of Israel’s insistence that peace should precede disarmament.

But Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, after talks in Egypt last week, told the Parliament in Israel that Egypt is “not demanding that Israel remove the appearance of a shroud surrounding its nuclear option” before Israel has signed peace treaties with all its neighbors.

He said the two countries agreed that a region “clean of wars is a Middle East that can discuss being a Middle East clean of nuclear weapons.”

Ironically, it is Iran, and not Israel, that most worries the Arabs. Arab nations have accused Iran of funding Islamic extremist groups throughout the Middle East. And they say they cannot bring comprehensive regional control measures to bear on Iran without Israel’s acceptance of non-proliferation.

“You have to consider the threats which are potentially more serious (than Israel’s atomic program), and they are potentially more serious to the Arabs than to Israel,” one Arab security analyst said.

“If you simply say, ‘Iran is cheating, so I will not enter,’ how does that prevent Iran from cheating?”

Iran, in response to the recent accusations, said its atomic energy program is devoted to peaceful purposes. “Iran does not, and will not, in light of its own national interest, engage in a nuclear weapons program,” Iran’s U.N. mission said in a statement over the weekend.

Lingering in the background of the nuclear debate is an international chemical weapons ban treaty that neither Israel nor Iran nor about half the Arab nations--including Iraq--have signed.

U.S. officials have urged all nations in the region to sign the chemical weapons pact but acknowledge that it is not as high on the agenda as the NPT because it is a newer treaty that even the United States has not ratified.

As with the non-proliferation issue, a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement is the cornerstone to a chemical weapons ban in the Middle East, U.S. officials say.

The Arab League has designated a committee of 13 nations that is preparing to present in February a new draft agreement for a ban on all weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. It would be similar to the Egyptian proposal unveiled in 1990, which has been widely discussed at regional multilateral arms talks but has gone essentially nowhere in the face of slow progress on the peace front.