Higher Education in State of Crisis, Researcher Says : Colleges: Harvard economist proposes ‘rationing’ enrollment to deal with expected surge of students in California. UC and CSU officials criticize his suggestions.

Assailed by budget troubles and facing an expected tidal wave of students over the next decade, California higher education is in a state of emergency, according to a two-year study completed by a Harvard University economist.

In his study, David W. Breneman, a leading scholar of higher education finance, concludes that there has been a “collapse of thought about the future, as if the dimensions of the problem have simply overwhelmed policy-makers. . . . Silence reigns.”

Breneman proposes that until the economy improves, California must rethink its educational priorities, shifting some of its resources away from research and graduate work to pay for undergraduate education. State education officials, meanwhile, say that idea would divert them from an important part of their mission without solving the crisis.

Breneman’s study, prepared for the California Higher Education Policy Center in San Jose, calls for Gov. Pete Wilson to declare a higher education state of emergency to broaden public awareness about the coming surge of high school graduates--expected to climb from fewer than 300,000 last year to 450,000 by 2006. The study lists several radical steps to make college available to as many Californians as possible.

Among the proposals: excluding all out-of-state undergraduates from public institutions, “rationing” enrollment to give preference to first-time students under the age of 24, and suspending new admissions to some master’s degree programs and doctoral degree programs at California State University and the University of California.

“Some of these are bound to step on the toes of just about everybody,” Breneman said. “But these kinds of things can make a difference.”

The study notes that before the economic recession, educational leaders had hoped to prepare for the burgeoning student population by building three more UC campuses. Now, however, with the exception of a new CSU campus at Monterey, expansion seems fiscally unrealistic. From 1989-90 to 1993-94, the state appropriation for UC decreased nearly 14% and funding for CSU dropped nearly 9%, the study says.

UC spokesman Mike Lassiter said some of Breneman’s proposals were not well-crafted for the nine-campus UC system. For example, he said, the typical UC student is already between 18 and 22 years old, so Breneman’s proposal to give preference to students under the age of 24 is moot.

More troubling, Lassiter said, is Breneman’s suggestion that new admissions to several doctoral degree programs be suspended at five UC campuses: Davis, Irvine, Riverside, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. The idea implies that UC educates graduate students at the expense of undergraduates--which is not the case, Lassiter said.

“Under the California Master Plan (for higher education), UC is the doctoral granting institution--if we don’t do it, it won’t be done,” Lassiter said, noting that 10% of the nation’s PhDs are conferred by UC. “Arbitrarily stopping enrollments does not seem to be a viable solution at this point.”

Breneman admitted that he does not expect UC to embrace the idea.

“Do I think it’s going to happen? Probably not,” he said. “But there’s absolutely no evidence that this country has a shortage of doctorates now or in the future. That faculty time would be better spent focused on undergraduates.”

Stephen MacCarthy, a CSU spokesman, echoed Lassiter’s criticisms of the study, noting that because just 2% of the CSU student body comes from out of state, it will not help much to exclude such students. MacCarthy also questioned Breneman’s assertion that higher education’s problems are like “the proverbial elephant in the corner of the room, ignored by all.”

“To say that no one’s talking about it flies in the face of the facts,” MacCarthy said, ticking off several forums where higher education’s problems are being discussed. “But whether or not politically you can get policy-makers to face up to it is another question.”