Residents Warned of Possible Landslide : La Conchita: Officials say people should be prepared to leave during next moderate to heavy rainfall because hillside is very unstable.

County emergency workers Thursday issued warnings to all 198 households in La Conchita that the hillside behind the coastal community is at high risk of collapsing and urged residents living next to the slopes to consider leaving their homes during the next moderate to heavy rain.

The hill has grown increasingly unstable since Sept. 27, when the county first alerted residents to the danger, with the land creeping at a rate of half an inch per week since December, emergency personnel said.

Thursday morning, when heavy rain was predicted for the weekend, authorities said heavy mudflows might be imminent and did not rule out a complete collapse.

“We’re advising them to be very cautious--they should even consider leaving the area for the duration of the rain,” said John Crowley, deputy director of water resources and development.

Later, the National Weather Service revised the forecast and said rain was unlikely until the end of next week. Still, the county notice said at least one of the geologists who have been monitoring the area believes a slide will occur before the end of March.

“The failure of the land mass could occur both in the form of gradual, intermittent slippage and in the form of sudden, massive movement without warning,” the notice stated.

The warning notice, distributed Thursday afternoon by county fire personnel, said a one-foot-wide crack had developed on an access road leading to La Conchita Ranch, an avocado farming operation on top of the hillside near the Santa Barbara County line. It also noted that the base of the hillside appeared to have moved about four feet.

Authorities have scheduled a public meeting at 11 a.m. Feb. 18 at Vista del Rincon Drive and Fillmore Street, the area county officials say is now most at risk, to explain the situation and spell out emergency procedures in the event of a slide.

Sandi Wells, public information officer for the Ventura County Fire Department, said fire crews recently acquired special equipment that can be used to rescue people during a landslide.

“But the Fire Department’s feeling is we have to be proactive so we don’t have to use any equipment,” Wells said.

Authorities said about nine to 12 homes along Vista del Rincon Drive are in particular danger. The street is a motley one, where $350,000 to $400,000 custom homes stand next to aging mobile homes.

One mobile home resident, Glen Sanderson, said authorities warned him Wednesday his home might need to be yellow-tagged--meaning he could be ordered to leave within a certain amount of time. Sanderson said he did not plan to leave unless ordered to, but has packed a couple of bags just in case.

Even residents of pricier homes were preparing for the worst Thursday afternoon, packing up family photos, legal documents and valuables. While grateful for the advance notice, some blamed the county for their current predicament.

Chris Caputo, whose gray multistory home shows severe cracking from the movement of the land behind it, said ground water isn’t the only problem with the hillside. It is the site of an ancient landslide and underground springs.

Caputo said the county should have denied permission to build in the first place but at least now should step in and shore up the hillside so there is no harm to residents.

Though county officials acknowledged the presence of the ancient landslide and springs Thursday, no one was immediately available to give the official reason for allowing homes on the site.

“I just wish something would happen, whether it comes down or not,” Caputo said. “I just want it to be over.”

Next door, Mary Lou Olson said she wasn’t aware there was a slide problem until she saw a newspaper article. The story surfaced just as she and her husband were putting their stone and wood custom house up for sale. They have since taken down the for-sale sign, though several others remain up along the street.

“You don’t sleep very well at night knowing this is above your head,” Olson said.

“In January, we had 25 inches of rain here. At this point, it’s sliding fast enough that it’s going to be very difficult to stop it.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

County Rainfall

Here are rainfall figures from the Ventura County Flood Control Department for the 48-hour period ending at 5 p.m. Thursday. Oct. 1 is the beginning of the official rain year.

Rainfall Rainfall Normal rainfall Location last 48 hours since Oct. 1 to date Camarillo 0.39 15.72 8.03 Casitas Dam 0.79 30.97 13.96 El Rio 0.35 19.43 8.92 Fillmore 0.24 21.77 11.31 Moorpark 0.28 17.04 8.71 Ojai 0.51 24.20 12.51 Upper Ojai 0.47 30.66 13.47 Oxnard N/A N/A 8.59 Piru 0.12 20.26 10.16 Santa Paula 0.39 19.88 10.49 Simi Valley 0.24 17.13 9.03 Thousand Oaks 0.12 19.09 8.29 Ventura Govt. Center 0.43 21.27 9.29