The Cutting Edge: COMPUTING / TECHNOLOGY / INNOVATION : Colonization of Universe Is Just Not in Our Stars
In the quarter of a century since humans first landed on the moon, America’s space program has reached out to the cosmos with some spectacular triumphs--and fallen toward a black hole with the tragedy of Challenger and a string of missteps worthy of Keystone Kops. Today’s program lacks clear goals, it is extremely expensive and no one seems certain exactly where the effort should be leading.
What has gone wrong with a program that once held such promise, and on which so many workers in Southern California depend upon for their jobs? Is the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to blame for a program that seems destined to forever languish in the shadow of Apollo?
The answer is yes and no.
And the problem lies in each of us.
In its search to rekindle the flames of Apollo, NASA has dangled Mars and colonization of the universe before our eyes. In press releases and public statements from high NASA officials, the agency has held out the promise of humans conquering space on a level that will eclipse the moon landings. Apollo was just the first step, and other worlds await us. It is, they say, our destiny.
But reasonable scientists who have studied the demands of space travel know that when their colleagues talk of the human conquest of space, they mean the moon, low earth orbiting space stations, and possibly--just possibly--Mars. If humans ever reach Mars, it will not be for decades, and maybe not for centuries, and that quite likely will be the end of the road.
NASA and its legions of trekkies have fostered the false hope that humans will someday journey to the stars, spreading our seed throughout the universe. But it isn’t going to happen, and that misconception lies at the root of NASA’s image problems. Our expectations have been raised so unrealistically high that anything the space program achieves seems minor compared to what we have been led to believe lies at our celestial doorstep.
Astronomer Frank Drake, one of the pioneers in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, believes the universe is filled with planets that have civilizations that are much older, and thus much more advanced, than ours. No one wants to believe that more than Drake, who launched the first search for radio signals from other civilizations several decades ago.
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But despite his dreams, Drake is a practical man. He knows he isn’t going to visit another civilization on another planet orbiting another star, and he knows why other creatures more advanced than us are not basking in the sunshine of Malibu.
The distance between stars is so enormous that interstellar colonization is impossible, he told me. Drake believes there are a few nearby stars within 10 light years of the earth that may have planets, but that is an unimaginable distance. To send a modest-sized spacecraft, about the size of a DC-9, to such a star in a reasonable period of time would eat up as much energy as the United States produces in 100 years, he said.
“That’s just basic physics,” he said. And it would not be an easy voyage. “Would you take that trip?” he asked. “A hundred years of airline food and watching the same movies.”
The time required for such a journey could be shortened if the spacecraft could travel at nearly the speed of light, but just the energy requirements--not to mention the technology--for such a feat are staggering. Physicist Gerald E. Tauber of the University of Tel Aviv has calculated the cost.
Even at nearly the speed of light, a journey to the nearest star would take more than five years, one way. The fuel would weigh a billion times more than the vehicle itself. Astronauts making the journey in a spacecraft the weight of a compact car would leave in a spaceship weighing more than two trillion pounds. Nuclear technology would reduce the fuel demands, but unless Einstein was wrong the trip would still take as long and the costs would still be prohibitive.
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So what are we talking about when we speak of interstellar travel? We’re talking robots, not humans. And how far are humans ever likely to reach? Mars, if we are lucky.
What is really wrong with the U.S. space program is our expectations as much as anything else.
Let’s stop thinking in terms of colonizing the universe and traveling to distant stars and concentrate instead on what is reasonable to achieve with a post-Apollo space program.
And let’s face the fact that astronauts have already accomplished our immediate goals in human exploration of space.
Let’s build robots, grand sophisticated machines that can take us to distant worlds from the comfort and safety of our living rooms.
In short, let’s get real.
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Lee Dye, a former science writer for The Times, has covered a broad range of science subjects for more than two decades. He can be reached via e-mail at 72040.3515@compuserve.com.
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NASA in Its Heyday
* To hear recordings from the Apollo 11 mission, call TimesLine at 808-8463. Press category *1990 to hear the Eagle’s descent to the Moon’s surface. Press *1991 to hear Neil Armstrong’s first step on the Moon.
Details on Times electronic services, B4
